Radtechwxman

Current motion of this certainly looks like it could pass over Yucatan. Hard to tell but will be very close if it doesn't

Agreed. That's when it could possibly get over loop current and have really good outflow ventilation Satellite appearance would agree. Main thing now is does center go onto Yucatan or stay over water

Quite impressed with how quick it had organized this evening. Satellite appearance looks better each frame. That CDO evolving nicely. Now we need to see this reflected on a radar standpoint with eyewall development.

I agree and once that core is established I think that's when RI intensification phase will start

Satellite really starting to look interesting. Getting nice cyclonic curvature now and convection beginning to wrap more around center instead of on its periphery.

How far off is the COC from that convection right now? Isn't the shear supposed to be dying down now?

Seems like late tomorrow night through Thurs are best conditions for RI. May encounter shear/dry air close to landfall Thurs.

Now the million dollar question, will the COC pass over Yucatan and if it does how much will this impact the storm? Could allow dry air into core.

For RI though need that center right under the convective blob and if it's more on the edge strengthening may be more gradual till then. But we are entering the diurnally favorable time for strengthening.

Interesting. Wonder if that's cuz of shear or just part of the LLC and MLC trying to organize and align with each other.

That CDO really getting healthy now over center. It's getting more symmetrical, getting colder, and starting to fan out signifying less shear and better upper outflow. We will likely have a hurricane tonight. Big question is does it go over Yucatan and get disrupted.

It's still a little asymmetrical and can tell western half is dealing with some shear still but the eastern half really starting to get some nice cyclonic curvature

Curious if dry air will impact Helene at all. Water vapor showing a channel of dry air in Gulf but if it gets organized tonight and really closes off may not matter. Would be more issue if areas remain open and it gets entrained into center.

Basically nothing that will help it strengthen in the near term. Until convection pops over the center Helene going to be steady state or possibly weaken with exposed center.

What a mess. Lol. LLC running away from convection. Shear definitely still impacting Helene. I'm beginning to think it may not get its act together until the Gulf.

This is the best PTC9 has looked so far

Agreed. I think we may finally see a TD or more likely a TS evolve. Now big question is how long before RI starts? If it starts sooner given conditions ahead could definitely overachieve.

Massive convective blob going up and sustaining near the LLC

My thoughts as well. Obviously a lot can change with motion as the mid/low level centers organize and try to align but right now this would be more east and is moving pretty nnw

Real good spin within that area of convection south of Cuba. Curious if that's only a mid level circulation or if we ate getting a low level circulation developing within that area as well.

888mb was just unrealistic. All the hurricane models were way overdone imo. Probably a more realistic portrayal. But like I said before, can't really trust any intensity guidance right now. Need our system to really develop first.

Yeah I'm really curious if we will see that cutoff and Helene Fujiwara with each other or if Helene will just deflect ne with little to no interaction.

I'm not trusting any model intensity until we have a developed LLC and this system starts organizing. Models are struggling with intensity because the system hasn't got established yet so they're essentially grasping at straws that don't exist.

Use the global OPs for pattern and track, less so for intensity. The ECMWF is excellent for overall track guidance. Obviously, if the globals are significantly intensifying a system, it's worth noting. But it is better to use the TC models for intensity once we have an established tropical cyclone. I say this because TC models can way overdo the intensity on an invest that has yet to form a proper vorticity maximum. That's a bit of a tangent, so to just be clear, focus less on the global OPs for exact intensity and more for track of system. I'd stress even further that the ensembles means are much better at determining overall track three-to-four days out, especially prior to TCG, as it's still unclear where exactly that will occur for initial origin of track. Great analysis. Kind of my thought. Though shockingly GFS has overall been on board with a high end outcome. But like you said not really trusting intensity outcomes till we have a defined vorticity maximum and formation of a TD or TS. So far the gyre seems to be struggling to focus an area of concise vorticity. If this takes a while to organize, higher end outcomes are less likely to be realized.

0z euro remaining very tame with little to no deepening up until landfall. What is its track record with hurricanes?