Radtechwxman

18z gfs continues lowering snow trend. I think globals are struggling with evolution of the major players. After the WAA wing Wed, gfs really weakens the deformation band to basically nothing overnight and isn't showing much with arctic front. 18z nam on the other hand is more generous

Like with every storm this winter I'm grasping for straws. Probably another dud in the making. Man I miss real winter storms that keep trending well in the short range instead of giving you false hope a few days out then trending back downward

18z nam gives me some hope. Warms me to 35 by midday then starts the plunge. Keeps precip all snow. Obviously accumulations will be limited at first with marginal temps and very low ratios but should improve come Wed evening and overnight

18z hrrr is abysmal. But it also has its usual warm bias. Shows rain for a lot of areas into Wed evening

Yea it's evolution is definitely odd. I do believe heavier swath could lay somewhere between I70 and I72 but I'm also skeptical of that with marginal temps the more south you get

Man that was a terrible euro run. I'm not sure I buy it being that south, esp with other guidance like gfs and nam a lot more north. Funny because euro was the only model before that was the most north and phased and now it's probably the furthest south. Lets see if other models follow suit

DVN isn't impressed: The 12Z model suite has shown more phasing than past runs with the upcoming system. The QPF has shifted north, resulting in models producing typical advisory levels of snow over the CWA and the rest of northern IL. However, no model run has really indicated a closed mid level circulation in this phasing, thus the precipitation should be mainly driven by WAA and not be long lasting or heavy in the cold side of the system (not a persistent def zone). While I am on board with increasing pops to likely for this event, we may not have a cold boundary layer over our region, and that could greatly limit any snow accumulation until the Arctic front arrives Wednesday night, and once again, unless there`s reason to draw moisture back over the cold air, that process should shut down the widespread rain/snow. Snow showers may develop with low level lapse rates peaking in the gusty Arctic transition.

Guessing we would probably see better than 10:1 ratios Wed night with temperatures getting well below freezing

Seems like it's heavier axis is more south though

Models all over the place. 18z nam has one piece of energy miss me to the south mostly and another to the north. Lol classic. Euro seems to be the only one spinning up something more significant. It has been remarkably consistent though. The 12z cmc was pretty similar to euro though

GFS still saying a hard pass. Euro has been pretty consistent. Curious to see if it holds or caves

Haha I know. But I'm grasping at straws this winter. Expectations set very low. Actually was just briefly in moderate rain and in an instant it switched to moderate snow

Punt. Next. There's the midweek system at least. Going to forecast a dab at this time

Well this has been underwhelming thus far. Most models had an intense wing of WAA precip here this morning with heavy mixed precip. Temps were marginal to start this morning and are already above freezing. Also the precip was more scattered and showery in nature. Needed that convective nature to help with dynamic cooling. Models show a bigger blow up of precip later but with temps warming quickly probably will be rain. Would love to be in that frontogenic band up north

It definitely was intense. Just didn't last long at all. It was racing. But a nice few hours of snow globe effect

Models have handled this horribly. This moved through incredibly fast and there really isn't anything filling in behind it

Have had absolute rippage a few hours here. Nice fat flakes. Band has been pivoting near IL River. Sadly it looks to be pulling away already. Most models didn't have a huge lull like what radar looks like now from MO into OK. Curious if it will fill back in like what hi res is showing

Nice to see you back man! It's been a min

I think gfs might be on a bit of the dry side as well

I was using COD. I always use COD for HRRR. Loads pretty fast on there. I'm setting my expectations low as well. Lol Yea HRRR seems to be playing catch up this winter. I definitely think it's too low on totals esp given the intensity it had. A lot comes down to this first wave earlier on Wed which looks to be pretty intense. 2nd wave looks more like a long duration light to moderate event

0z hrrr is abysmal on snow totals. A lot of areas would bust bad through MO and IL if it were completely right

GFS has stayed pretty on course today with nw shift and wider swath of snows. Nam has slowly been bumping nw but narrower swath. I see 0z cmc shifted se quite a bit. Curious to see models after we get sampling of this last piece of energy

Well this forum died as quick as it started. Lol

Nam definitely a more thread the needle snow. Could be due to a tight area of strong frontogenesis. Those tend to have brutal cutoffs. Globals seem to have a wider band of heavier snow likely due to how the trough is being handled. Curious to see other 0z guidance

Looks like nam continues to cave to other models. Another step NW. It is a lot narrower with the snow and and has a very small corridor of significant snow with a medium sized area of 2-3in