Radtechwxman

Is that the CF surging south in KS or an OFB? It is past Wichita now nearing OK border

Couldn't agree more. Good for their sake. But wind profiles are awful. So much veering at sfc. Bad weakness aloft. Storm mode absolute slop fest and definitely outflow dominant

Southern MS

Man these VWP's I'm seeing are ugly and not in good way for tornadoes. Very unidirectional. Horribly veered sfc flow

Weird how strong the TDS looks given the weak couplet present

TDS now on that cell now in central LA

Twitter is entertaining tonight. Apparently BMX talked SPC out of issuing the high risk. Can't confirm anything. Rumor mill a spinning hard tonight. Lol

Not discounting significant tornado potential tomorrow but I'm unsure if high risk probs will verify. Just shocked they're doing it at all esp tonight when we need to see how morning convection evolves. I think a lot of this is because of similar areas impacted. SPC outlooks do have a political aspect to them

I see that. Apparently several people have inside info. Lol. Heard Broyles is doing outlook

Rain snow line absolutely flying north on CC. It was suppose to stay south of I74 and it has already passed it and still moving north. Looks like NAM may have been right for once. Definitely not what I was expecting. All rain here now

I know I'm no survey expert but I really was thinking at least 180-190mph range for this tornado based on radar data and damage

Wonder what's taking so long to get final survey on Bassfield EF4. Curious if final width will be greater than 2mi and if they bumped wind speeds up

Riding the cutoff in Peoria like all winter. Lol. A nudge south I will be in rip city. A nudge north cold rain. Wouldn't expect it any other way

Surprised those storms aren't taking off in southern MS. Wondering if the jet/main energy is lagging behind further west

Definitely a noticeable downward trend in tornado activity now. I think those two supercells went gangbusters from an hr or two because they were moving more east than north initially in a very favorable thermodynamic environment. As they got east they started moving more north into a less potent environment. Seems like things have got messy again. Best chance for more significant tornadoes would be for anything down south to deviate more east. That was a short duration albeit very violent few hours of tornado madness. Might see a major qlcs get going later

Was just about to post this. Very interesting. Wonder if that lead wave left some subsidence behind it

Couldn't agree more. Seems like better low level instability isn't lining up well with best shear. Then the storm mode is very messy, esp near the warm front

My exact thoughts and was my fear with this setup. Models never showed good low level lapse rates or 0-3km cape. Low level instability is crucial in tornadogenesis. I do think there will be plenty of qlcs tornadoes but discrete supercells with long track tornadoes is looking less and less likely each hour. However, qlcs tornadoes are still nothing to ignore and can be strong

Storms struggling as they get north. That storm that originated by Jackson has fallen apart. Likely due to poor low level lapse rates and poor 0-3km cape up north

18z HRRR continues a very messy evolution of tomorrow. Multiple waves of storms. Still could see significant severe esp with anything interacting with the warm front

I totally agree with this. I think there's going to be a lot of morning convection like the Yazoo City day. I think we will see somewhat of a lull by early afternoon with some destabilization occurring from increasing waa south of wf and maybe some peaks of sun. I think the main event will be a mixed mode of supercells and lines of storms. The wind shear should allow a storm or two to advantage of this environment with a few significant tornadoes. I'm honestly more worried about AL for an overnight threat. Overall for now I'm not seeing a major tornado outbreak happening but it is also not out of the cards. This will come down to fine mesoscale details in the morning. However, it only takes one significant tornado hitting a community to make for a bad day

Yea 3km nam goes to show you a possible scenario if the warm sector doesn't clear quickly. A messy storm mode and not as high end threat. 12km nam on the other hand really lifts morning convection quickly north and has confluent bands of supercells. I think that was similar to the euro evolution. Really this comes down to morning convection and warm sector quality. Even if the lower end solutions pan out, the threat for significant tornadoes is still there given the wind fields. That Baron 3k run would be a worse case scenario for the South. If I were SPC I would hold off on high risk till day of to see how morning storms evolve.

If any day was ever worthy of it, it was 4-27-11. Such a high concentration of strong to violent tornadoes

I mean the fact these "supercells" in a 15 hatched barely have rotation and no lightning speaks for itself. So much shear, so little cape. It's just pushing over the updrafts. I saw Iowa managed to squeeze out a brief tube

Thermos and lapse rates definitely killed our threat here. That morning wave was the nail in the coffin