Radtechwxman
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Everything posted by Radtechwxman
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Really happy with this storm. Definitely have over a quarter inch of ice here. It's snowing pretty hard now with these convective bursts rotating in from the east as the upper low moves overhead. Definitely wasn't worse case scenario due to sleet mixing early on and dry slot this afternoon but best winter event we seen here in a while.
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Models didn't depict this dry slot very well. Seems a lot more north and broader than forecasted. It's about pushed into Peoria. Hoping that deformation band can work its magic here later.
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That dry slot is really pushing north. Curious if precip will fill in more later. Deformation band seems so west and a pretty wide dry slot
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Seems to be a lot of sleet mixing in so far here in Peoria. Definitely wasn't expecting that. Maybe cold air is initially deeper than anticipated?
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Meanwhile my temp keeps creeping up and is a few degrees warmer than hrrr depicts now. I'm nervous. Lol
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I been monitoring the observations versus hrrr modeled temps. Overall isn't too off. I did see we dropped to 22 earlier but up to 25 now. Hopefully that will level out and not keep rising. ENE wind should hopefully keep that in check.
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Yea unfortunately you're right. Wondering if that has to due to urban heat island effect and maybe influence from the river. Most models keep us around freezing but daytime ice events have high bust potential. We shall see. Definitely our best potential we had since the one back in 2008.
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Nice to see you back man! It's been too long. Last significant ice I remember here in my county was like 2009 I think. Have had icing events since but they didn't pan out well or weren't excessive. Definitely nervous that temps could surge above freezing. Daytime ice events can be tricky. But I like we maintain northerly sfc flow which should help.
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Think they're trustworthy with low level thermals? They keep temps at or below freezing the whole event whereas GFS, Nam are bringing us above freezing by 18z. Current HRRR run is several degrees too cold on current temps and doesn't even bring me to 27 which I'm already at. RAP also looks to be running too cold.
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Icing events are so finicky and a nightmare to forecast. Such a delicate balance of temperatures. A little colder could mean more sleet. A little warmer rain.
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06z hrrr looking quite nice. Similar to 0z run. Has a broad swath of ice storm warning criteria totals. Temps a bit marginal for significant icing but feel confident in a good corridor of 0.1-0.2in with pockets exceeding a quarter inch. Not completely sold on half inch totals yet.
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Nam is very aggressive with the warm push north and also tracks the low north of I70. Most guidance has shifted along or just south of I70 with sfc low track
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Yea nam is the most north guidance and an outlier at this point
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I'm curious of this myself. I think most areas will go WWA and upgrade to ice storm warning if need be
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Thanks man! I need to get a premium model subscription but college has me broke. Ha. That's very impressive. Similar to gem with significance.
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0z euro bumped se again. Anyone have ice maps?
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Man that's nice. Looks like I could possibly see more snow or sleet being north of heaviest freezing rain on RAP. Funny because I was worried about going to rain too soon
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Well nam certainly didn't get the se memo. It surges warm air north very quickly.
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That 21z rap is sick. Don't tell sir angry. LoW iS weAKeR, tHeRe woN't bE aNY qPf iN cOLd sEcToR.
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I definitely agree with this. I see more ice than snow. Snow never really looked impressive with this system. But not confident on a significant ice storm by any means. But a widespread .1-.2in I think is likely with pockets of a quarter inch or more a decent bet.
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Well it's always been clear this system reaches its max intensity early on. I'm not worried about it trending much weaker but anything is possible. Gem solution would be nice but doesn't seem to have the support for a widespread significant ice storm.
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I'm digging these trends. Pun intended. Definitely a notable southeast trend today. Though system is weaker and less qpf but I will take it. Better than stronger and more cold rain. No thank you.
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Went above freezing here earlier than expected. That dry slot was a killer. Temps rose a lot with no precip and strong se winds. I thought with dews in the mid to upper 20s that once precip resumed that we could drop a bit again but nope. Got a little over an inch of snow and a glaze at best of ice. Hope this next storm fairs better here. Team gem till the end.
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Ride the GEM
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Wouldn't quite call it dead days out. Lol. I do agree west looks more likely but can't completely discount anything yet.
