Radtechwxman
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Everything posted by Radtechwxman
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NHC doesn't seem to be buying the stall for now based on their track intervals and time stamps
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Lol. Would be ultimate troll after a lackluster season and all the hurricane chasers in US dying for an intercept. How likely is this stalling scenario though? Any other models showing it?
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Yeah I'm thinking this exposed one flying nw won't be the main epicenter for getting the storm going. Probably one closer to the convection
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That LLC is moving nw away from the deep convection. Earlier it was moving west just behind convection. Seems like it is really getting well removed now.
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Nice blow up of convection to the sw of the LLC on IR now. Can see swirl nice on satellite. I think we could see a depression by later tomorrow and if not for sure by Sat and possibly TS by then
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Satellite presentation has improved again. She's definitely trying
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Not sure Fiona will hit 140mph. Think max may have been reached. Not looking as great on satellite.
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Fiona starting to look sexy again on satellite
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Earl looking rough right now. That dry air did a number on the inner core. This may never hit major hurricane status now. Crazy
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Definitely think the dry air intrusion was the fly in the ointment today otherwise we would have a major hurricane by now. But it does seem that Earl may be one of those hurricanes whose dropping pressure correlates more to expanding wind field instead of strengthening winds. But it is kind of funny how it strengthened more in stronger shear.
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Was not expecting it to weaken. Esp based on satellite presentation. Best it has looked. I'm shocked. Though last few frames not as impressive as it was earlier.
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Definitely think Earl is a major hurricane now. Looks very impressive on satellite imagery.
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Looks like a big slug of dry air just temporarily has disrupted the inner core. Can see it on IR, water vapor, and vis sat. But some deep convection is trying to rewrap around and close out dry air. May halt or slow intensification for a bit but should be off to the races later today into tonight.
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2022 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion
Radtechwxman replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Hrrr definitely underestimating current convection strength. Definitely an ofb with this activity pushing east and south. Hard to see with limited radar spacing where it's at currently and visible sat just now coming into light. Extensive cloud shield could really dampen instability into the afternoon but hoping for a quick recovery behind this. Wondering though if outflow from this will shunt threat further south. -
Was that in Lubbock's jurisdiction? I keep checking their Twitter and haven't seen anything.
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Are they going to survey the Morton, TX tornado or did it even hit anything?
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Thanks man! I appreciate your input!
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@Quincyhow do you feel about initiation on dryline in south central KS? TP is obvious play but looks to get messy quick and could get undercut by front
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I'm pretty much expecting qlcs at this point because overall shear vectors seem largely parallel to front and wind fields aloft are more southerly as the trough really goes neg tilt. Why I like low amplitude waves better than full latitude troughs when it comes to neg tilt esp because I feel you tend to get more meridional flow over warm sector with full latitude troughs. Also instability looks rather limited up this way but shear is ample. HSLC and strong forcing on cf racing east to me screams qlcs.
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Yeah I'm definitely skeptical of instability north of I72 and even I70. Could be a HSLC setup which would favor a qlcs.
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What does everyone think of Wed? Really comes down to timing here in IL. Nam seems to be very fast like gfs and pretty much kills severe threat here because of early timing. Hoping euro is right on timing. This latest run looks a lot more messy as well. Wish I could chase Tues. Hoping for something local Wed here but not feeling optimistic about my chances.
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I think Tues and Wed have solid potential. Mon may not have enough moisture yet. Definitely worried about trough timing Wed.
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This forum is sure absolutely dead for 3 outlooked areas next week in tornado alley.....
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Yeah I wouldn't trust any gfs solution. Lol
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It's too bad the storm peaks to our west and dampens east. Would have been a good track for a lot of us to cash in. Hrrr/rap look a bit more robust like nam but not holding my breath. Probably another 1-3in at best.
