Radtechwxman

#trash lol

0z guidance all still looks pretty spot on except nam being nam which went from 3-5in on 12z and 18z runs and barely 1-2in for 0z run. Lol

Yeah I looked at what ratios it was using for Kuchera later and was like nope. Normally with this cold it would work but the wind wasn't helping with fracturing the dendrites and I know there was issues with DGZ being misaligned with where forcing was and then had the drying profile with extreme caa behind cf. These winds are no joke today. Consistent 40+ gusts and definitely approaching the 50 mark.

Hoping this snow band widens throughout the morning and afternoon as the low deepens and better upper air support rounds trough. Band pretty narrow right now. If it stays how it is now I will probably be looking at 1-2in. Hoping for 3-4in like hi res has been suggesting. Hrrr off it's rocker suggesting 5-6in.

Topography out there definitely influences it then it gets in Plains and is like YEET. Lol. Apparently KC area getting a good glaze of ice now. Don't remember that being forecasted.

For you yes. Here not so much or I won't see hardly any snow if it moves through too fast

Curious if this will mean a quicker hitting snow if cf is faster and stronger caa eating at western edge of snow. Hi res hinted at that in previous runs but 0z seemed to have improved it a bit.

Saw someone share this on FB

Liking the trend of hi-res guidance tonight. Though waiting for the snow band to really light up down the front like it shows in next 1-2hrs to see if it comes to fruition.

Lol I called that with nam. I was like watch it be nearly west of IL

Euro and it's ensembles go east and gfs and it's ensembles went west. Let panic ensue

Funny I was team euro before but now euro is like my dream crusher model. It's definitely not getting a frisky with the sfc low as quick as gfs

Gfs wagons west. Lol. Low party for me. Nam will probably track low west of IL  will this be start of permanent nw trends or will we see se corrections as we get closer? I think we will see gfs correct se. But a very amped system would end up more nw. But I think gfs is unrealistic imo.

Live and die by the GFS. Lol

Euro solution is definitely more of a downer. Still a good event with high winds and some decent snow here but really miss out on all the wraparound snow as the low occludes too ne of me so totals are significantly less than gfs obviously. I knew gfs solution was likely not to occur but definitely was hoping to see euro bump towards that a bit at least with the low occluding more nw to cash in on deformation band more. Still time for small details to work out. I bet nam will have a real humdinger of a storm. Lol

Euro still occluding the low mostly over MI versus much further nw over IN/IL like GFS. Euro has been very consistent with this so probably trust it more as much as I would love goofus to be right with blizzard of the century. Ha.

Well that's even more depressing. Lol. But you're probably right with those flakes getting shredded. Hopefully can get some more qpf involved or get in on 1st wave or wraparound.

Nice snow dome right over me. Ha. Peoria dome lives on. On euro miss that initial wave north and don't get the wrap around as the low occluded.

If 0z euro jumps se that will definitely be alarming considering its been pretty consistent for several runs. But nothing would shock me at this point. Ha

Okay thanks for that useful post

I see that. Sigh. Obviously plenty can change still. But why I haven't got excited or too invested in this yet.

0z gfs continues to hold firm on its more eastern solution. Going to be a gfs vs euro showdown again. Obviously can't believe anything at this range because it's all fair game until we get adequate sampling of the pieces in play.

Definitely hard to ignore the consistency of the OP euro. Definitely far from set in stone but it's more trustworthy than OP gfs which is still wobbling quite a bit run to run. Would love to see some EPS stuff!

Man I miss the days of AccuWeather forums. Those were the good ol' days though I have really grown to love this forum with a lot of amazing professional input and discussion. I learn a lot. I actually remember that one. That was a fun one to watch unfold.

I'm not excited yet because there's too many moving pieces and a lot that can go wrong. Still worried gfs could be right with a further south and east track. Really won't know for a few more days till we get sampling of upper data and see how this 1st wave evolves Mon.