Radtechwxman
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Everything posted by Radtechwxman
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ILX went watches for their extreme north. Really wish gfs could be right.
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Well this is depressing. Lol. I can't say I was expecting mostly a rainer from this one. Congrats Chicago peeps....
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Hrrr and nam on the same drugs apparently
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If you're trusting hrrr at this range the joke will be on you. Lol. It did terrible at this range with previous system.
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Guessing you meant 970s bomb. Lol. 907s and rain would really be something in Jan. Ha
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18z hrrr real special. Explosive deepening and says hello rain for a good chunk of us
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I'm north of the Peoria metro area. Seem to start as snow Thurs night then mix into afternoon Fri and changeover to snow on back end of deformation zone. It has mixing line close to river again. Could be close call here. Team gfs. Ha
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For whatever reason gfs seems to be only model keeping thermals under check here but everything else is a blast furnace. I truly hate El Nino winters. Lol
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This one is starting to look like a dud here. Still crazy how this one tracks further south than first storm and I end up with less snow and more rain. This system seems to really pull up a big slug of warm air compared to the other. Hoping it can trend cooler aloft as we get closer but not hopeful.
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Crazy how close we are to event and still so much spread. Was thinking sampling this morning would be helpful for models. I was wrong. Lol. I'm not sure what to expect.
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GEFS seems pretty north
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12z gfs takes a very similar track to what the prior storm just did. Not quite as aggressive with warm surge as other models.
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LOL at 12z nam. How bout a deformation zone of rain. I think nam may be out to lunch. Just a hunch.
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Man the warm nose with this is BRUTAL. The low actually looks to potentially track more se than last one but still showing a lot of precip type issues because of that warm nose. Of course we couldn't get the arctic air in time for this. I'm actually a bit more nervous with this one versus last. Hoping we can see a correction se like with yesterday's storm last second. Same areas that just scored big may do it again with this one. I really hate El Nino winters.
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I thought the same thing. But GFS does it to. But not as long as nam and euro. Just seems crazy to get that north of a warm slug with where the sfc low is tracking. It's south of where current storm is.
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Euro doing that same big warm surge at 850mb. Man I really didn't think I would have any precip type issues with this one. Hoping that can calm some on future runs.
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GFS is back! Start playing THE BOYS ARE BACK IN TOWN!
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Given how poor nam looked days out with current storm with its far nw sfc low track and taking the 500mb low very far west I wouldn't trust it. Seems like nam is usually late to the party to catching on to other models. Also not sure it has resolved current system's snow pack.
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Man that deformation band evaporated faster than my last relationship. Getting some nice winds now and mood flakes though.
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Nam doing nam things. I get this thing could pull up a big slug of warm air with it but where nam has the low placement I just don't buy rain this north that long or maybe even period. Thermals seem wonky on it. It is doing strange things with the 500mb low.
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18z gfs continues to be stubborn as a mule. But does serve a nice waa wing of snow. Just no deformation zone snows here. Models all over the place.
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Team Euro. Ride or die. @Chicago Storm we need back your Ke$ha certified snow maps. Those always reeled these in.
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Lovely. Hopefully it trends back but feel like it won't. This first storm trended nw so makes sense this trends se. Can't win here. Ha
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How is that in comparison to the OP? I haven't had time to dive super deep into this one yet.
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Well ICON, Ukmet, GDPS, and somewhat nam/euro all look good for this. GFS did pretty well with this current system. Is it going to be right and be a miss se for us?
