Radtechwxman

Im just not overly impressed by this setup and definitely not feeling as aggressive as spc is. Low deepens quick Tues and is well into occlusion process by Wed. Low also very far north. There is good flow over warm sector but feel like sfc winds will tend to veer without secondary low development. Models look very linear right now and morning convection could definitely be an issue esp with northward extent. It does look more cellular further south and there is some orthogonal nature to shear vectors off CF. But the more south you go, the more removed from the low you are. Just not 100% on board with a big tornado threat yet.

Thank you! Glad someone has a brain. Apparently chasers need spotter training again. Saw multiple reputable chasers calling obvious gustnadoes tornadoes.

It's a shame dew points mixed out so bad. Hrrr modeled that well. Moisture so shallow and we mixed pretty deep today. Went from 55 dew earlier to 44. Showing recovery possible last second. Feel like best tornado threat will be I72 south and likely I70 south. Hoping line organizes more so I can at least get damaging winds.

And gfs and euro both were only showing temps around 70. That's definitely underdone

Well this system was an epic bust and one next week misses way south. So over winter. Bring on spring.

It did come down nicely here. Good rates. Relatively low visibility. If it was moving slower we easily could of got 2-4in.

Come on 0z gfs! My only hope. Ha

Yeah you guys are in for a great storm. Mad jelly

18z euro looks like hot garage

Getting nice rippage with WAA snow. Hrrr had it missing me. Wish it was moving slow because could dump a lot fast. Hoping maybe a sign we will get surprised tomorrow.

Wish that could be IL but apparently never going to happen this winter

That euro run was trash. Crazy we are so close to event and models all over the place. How did euro do with last storm?

I thought the exact same thing. Maybe moisture getting robbed by convection. I definitely don't dig the look of gfs for me.

I'm happy for the potential for you Michigan folks. But wish I could squeak in one good snow. Waa snows definitely look to be non event here. My only hope is the wraparound.

Well the rich get richer on 12z hrrr. Miss waa snow and deformation band takes a while to change over here. Would be nice to catch a break for one system. Need it se a bit more but that's unlikely.

06z runs didn't look as favorable. If 12z runs follow suit I'm probably going to say those 0z runs were a fluke

Euro wanting to always crush dreams. It couldn't play nice and jump on board. 0z very encouraging but I'm still remaining highly skeptical. Hopefully models continue this tomorrow.

Watch it get so amped and screw us. Ha. I would give my right testicle for 0z nam to verify. Definitely steps in right direction. Hoping it continues on models tomorrow. But still feel jackpot may be I80 north. Peoria has nearly a 13in deficit. I need this. Lol

You and me both

Why I didn't get invested in this because I knew this was going to happen. Following seasonal trends.

Well this certainly is trending favorably for me. I can't think of a worse winter here. WAA snows probably going to miss north. System phases too late so no wraparound. And next week storm track is suppressed. Back to miserable cold and dry. Still hoping I can get some WAA snow but not optimistic at all.

Now 0z euro crushes our hopes and dreams

Probably gunna get the jackpot yet again. Lol

You're not wrong there. Sigh. We need to combine forces to pull this a little south

Wrong thread. Lol