Thread created just in time lol. SPC just upped tor probs to 5% in southeast MN, far west WI, and extreme northeast IA. HRRR has considerably more surface cape than 3km NAM, as it has dews pooling into the upper 50s to near 60 ahead of the surface low, while the 3KM NAM keeps dews lower in the 50s. The result is cape AOA 1000J/kg on the HRRR and <100J/kg on the NAM. SPC must be banking on the HRRR working out, as if the NAM ends up being correct tors would be very hard to come by. I for one am rooting for the HRRR, let's kick off 2021 severe season with a bang.