cyclone77
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Everything posted by cyclone77
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18z GFS very ominous tomorrow evening into early overnight for the parts of DVN/MKX/LOT regions. Shows 70-76mph gusts from eastern Iowa through parts of northern IL into far southeast WI. Fully expecting power to be going out tomorrow night here.
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Pretty cool to see 5% tor probs in the area where over a foot of snow fell a few days ago. Still solid snow cover on the ground there too.
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Broyles forecasts 325 out of 365 day3-8 SPC outlooks per year.
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18z Euro with 65mph+ gusts over the northwest DVN cwa Wed eve now. The Euro gust forecasts are usually a slight bit on the conservative side in most cases from what I've seen, so it would indicate potential 70 mph winds if the 18z works out. The high-res models move the highest winds further north as the low center is modeled further north. The 3km NAM goes nuts and drops the surface low below 970mb as it heads into Canada Wed night lol.
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Just jaw dropping wind forecasts showing up on the models. Euro has a pocket of 70-80mph surface wind gusts moving from northern KS into Iowa Wednesday afternoon/eve. If those areas escape precip earlier in the day there's gonna be a hell of a dust storm out in open areas I'd imagine.
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Haha Broyles overruled.
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The Euro is forecasting craziness behind the front out in southwestern Iowa later Wednesday afternoon. Dews crash from near 60 down to near 10 degrees, with 60-70mph gradient winds. Gonna be a wild late afternoon/early evening from Omaha to Des Moines.
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Apparently Broyles not too impressed with Wed lol.
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DVN has 71 in the point for Wed which would tie the all time high for December at MLI. Dewpoints look like they'll be AOA 60 degrees as well, which makes reaching that temp even more impressive. Wednesday evening is looking pretty wild with whipping south winds possibly up to 50 mph with temps/dews holding in the mid-upper 60s until at least midnight. Out in central/western Iowa the Euro is advertising 60-65 mph gradient winds early to mid evening behind the cold front.
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When we're debating the sun angle in December we've hit a new low lol.
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As the deep snow rapidly melts this week it'll really show up on satellite who got in on that death band in the southern MSP metro.
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Had a brief period of flurries around daybreak.
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5hrs ago...This is the same storm that went on to hit Mayfield and others. Quite the long tracker unfortunately.
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Big-time overachiever here today. Picked up almost an inch of badly needed rain. Had several rounds of thunder as well.
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I'm hoping the 3km NAM is correct in giving us a quick half inch of rain prior to dry slot intrusion. If HRRR verifies a tenth or so would do it lol. Looks like a burst of flurries possible around daybreak Sat. Storm system doesn't get it's act together soon enough to give this area anything notable.
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70 in December, -30 in January.
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Luckily our 0.3", and MLI/DVN both 0.2" kept us out of that gray area lol.
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Interesting tidbit @Hoosier will probably like. All-time max in Dec at MLI is 71. That was in early Dec '98, less than a month from the New Years blizzard.
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Looks like a few showers/dry slot/flurries for this area with this. Top 3 event in the bag for fall/winter season so far.
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Winter 2021-22 Short/Medium Range Discussion
cyclone77 replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
I'm all in on the 70 degree train. If we gon torch lets torch! -
I feel bad for anyone who actually gets in on the thread the needle event as it will vanish quickly much like an April snowfall. Takes a lot of the fun out of the event IMO.
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Down to 6 here. Today's 20s felt considerably colder with the very gusty winds all day. Can tell my body definitely hasn't acclimated to it yet.
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Just like we got a 2nd August in September, we're getting another November in December. Maybe that means will get two Januarys in January lol.
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Dense fog with calm winds here. Strong winds are on the way for later this evening/overnight so this fog won't last much longer. Finished with 0.01" today.
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Make that a trace. Still a top 4 event post Halloween.
