cyclone77

DVN needs to fix the CID and GBG temp sensors. They've been a bit erroneous compared to surrounding locations for some time now. They both look to be running 5-10 degrees too cold.

Should bottom out pretty good tonight with the ridge axis right overhead, zero clouds, and 5" of fresh snow OTG. Point has -6, but I think we have a good chance to dip well into the - double digits.

MLI finished with 4.7", and DVN with 6.2".

Picked up another half inch over the past few hours from the decaying Iowa band, so up to 5.0" for the event. Still snowing lightly.

Think what hurt our total is the lack of snow from late afternoon on. It's basically just been spitting snow the last 5hrs, with the band over IA refusing to budge in this direction. Had the snow not shut down like it did we prob would have picked up another inch or so.

4.5" here. A little under what I expected but still a nice daytime event.

Sure was nice to have a daytime event like this, we had a hard time getting these last season it seemed. On an off day to boot lol. The snow has been very light the past hour or two, but now the CR death band remnants are moving in so hopefully we can muster another inch of fresh powder this evening.

20 degrees here with rippage continuing. Looks like 3 or 4 inches so far.

There's been several ob sites in southern/southeastern IA over the past hour or two with vis of 1/8, so it's really ripping to be sure in the heaviest snow. We've been bouncing back and forth (obv estimating) between 1/4 and 1/2 mile type vis here. Haven't measure anything but looks like a good inch down already. Looking upstream there's heavy snow falling as far west as extreme northeast KS, so still a long ways to go.

There's still some pretty decent obs down where it looks sort of dry on radar. Think the radar hole over that area is affecting the way it looks, as much of the precip is emanating from lower in the atmosphere than it was earlier, so the DVN and other radar beams are slightly above the majority of the snow.

Heavy snow

Ripping pretty nicely here now, prob about 1/2 mile vis. Flake size is decent; not pixies, not fatties. Already adding up fairly quickly. Several 1/4 mile heavy snow obs upstream, so intensity probably gonna continue to uptick. EDIT: Centerville in southern IA the winner at the moment with 1/8 mile vis

Several locations in southeast/southern IA and northern MO AOB 1/2 mile. Keokuk down to 1/4 mile. Model QPF consensus here is generally around 0.4". Should be able to easily fluff that up to 5"+. If we can sneak in a little more QPF, and LSR end up north of 14:1 6-7" still on the table. Def looks like the southern portion of the DVN cwa will get in on the 6-7"+ snows, with model QPF 0.5"+. LSR may not quite be as high, but should still be well above 10:1.

Aaaaand the light snow has begun here. Let the games begin.

Natester's nightmare scenario of a 2018 redux for the CR area is nearly manifested in that model run.

Gotta be nice to always have the lake available to supplement the synoptic storm. Many times it doesn't, but there's always hope that it contributes some. Out here far from the lake we get one shot, take what the synoptic gives you and like it.

Looks like the Indiana and Ohio peeps will get in on the action with next Thursday's storm system. New Euro blasts Ohio with a warning criteria event. EDIT: Nevermind, forgot Ohio has it's own special segregated thread where this is already being discussed. Guess no need to talk about it here.

Overall this system is kind of disappointing considering the potential it had. Big system ejecting from the southwest along a very nice baroclinic zone. Kind of felt like after such a horrific December it would break with a big dog. This one came close, but in the end it'll sort of be a forgettable event. On the plus side it'll be a nice solid 4-7" type of event for the majority in the main swath outside the lake enhanced areas. Riding the 5-7" call for here/QC, but I think 5" is more likely than 7".

Shucks, was hoping the 16" from yesterday's run would verify. Gonna stick with my 5-7" call for here/QC.

New Euro looks largely the same. Still 30+hrs for more tweaks, but the QC should be locked in for a nice 5-7" event. If ratios end up as high as some of the kuchera outputs then more than 7" is definitely possible.

That would beat GHD2 here with that 16" lol. From here on out I'm ridin the RAP.

Feeling pretty good about our location with this. It's far from a lock, but 6"+ looks pretty likely for the QCA.

Will be interesting to see if any or many of the ensemble members incorporate more of the secondary wave. It looks like it's so close to being something quite special, so it'd be kind of a shame if it falls just short. That being said I'll still take a solid weekend event.