cyclone77
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Everything posted by cyclone77
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Gonna be an interesting choice on which side of the MS river to play on tomorrow. Gonna have to see how things look when I get off work. Encouraged to see the RRFS popping large sups now on the latest run.
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Gotta work till 4 but will be out after that. I'm riding the consistent Euro and FV3 till I go down in flames lol. Parameters too strong for me to sit this one out.
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I'll give it a D. Late season snows saved it from what was looking like an F. Still finished over 10" below average and was another winter without a warning criteria event. That makes 3 out of the last 4 without one.
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So far both LOT and DVN have confirmed 16 tornadoes each in their respective cwas.
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Around these parts it seems quite hard to get good synoptic setups without morning crapvection screwing things up. Nice to see both last Friday's and Tuesday's setups free of that.
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And then show toilet for taco emergency
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The Euro has been very consistent in developing convection across northeast MO and the eastern 1/3 of IA mid-late afternoon for many consecutive runs. This then moves across northern IL/southern WI during the evening. This is all well out ahead of the cold front in the open warm sector. Winds look to stay fairly backed, even well south of the warm front during the afternoon/evening. Looks like a nice little mid-level speed max arrives by late afternoon per Euro.
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Last week's warmth and thundery rain has started the greening up process around here. Lawns are waking up from their winter slumber, and tree buds have swollen.
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DVN has rated the tor in their western cwa as an EF4... After collaboration with a team of survey experts, we have determined a prelim. rating of low end EF4 for the tornado that tracked from Wapello into Johnson County IA. Max estimated winds around 170 mph. Max width around 600 yards. The EF4 damage occurred at a farmstead N/NE of Keota in Keokuk County, where a house was swept off the foundation. We are still finalizing additional details.
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Got back in town this afternoon. Yard is a mess with sticks/small branches down all over. Looks like the wind peaked at 56mph on the weather station, which is 5ft above the ground. Guessing we had 65-70mph winds here. Picked up 1.31" of rain.
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That is nice to hear.
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This thread seems quieter. I'm not able to look at models much atm, is this setup still looking as impressive?
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Yeah we come back tomorrow. At least it's been a fun trip lol. Saw some nice thunderheads earlier from stuff blowing up all over. It sort of wussed out though. Extremely windy now with drier air advecting in.
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Boy I picked a heck of a time to vacation away from the QCA lol. Hopefully get some consolation storms down here but always a bit unnerving being away from your home during a major severe setup.
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A few flurries spitting out this morning. Temps will only make it to around 40 here, but will be near 60 down where we're heading later today.
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Is COD having issues with their models? Was looking at the Euro on COD and it looks totally different compared to other sites. For example the H5 winds at 186hr from last night's run looks way different that Pivotal and WxBell. The COD site says it's the current run so what the heck?
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I'll be down at Lake of the Ozarks Thu/Fri so no chasing for me with this. Will definitely be following it though as it looks pretty interesting. Nice to see a setup in the forecast.
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Was nice to see some towering cumulus building up earlier this afternoon.
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As Hawkeye pointed out in another thread 8-9" fell from this in a narrow stripe in western IA, and 5-6" fell as far east as near Waterloo.
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Picked up a brief period of freezing rain this morning with little warm air advection wing. Some serious rippage out northwest of Des Moines. Carroll at 1/8 mile in heavy snow for a few obs now.
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Over 7" of snow this morning and MLI still made it to near 50 late this afternoon.
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Wow that late March sun is flexxin. Most of the snow is already toast here, and it didn't fully clear off until a few hours ago.
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Both MLI and DVN had over 7". Finished with 3.3" here.
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Not so much in this sub, but tomorrow's little wave coming out into IA looks very vigorous. Looks like there could be a narrow stripe of heavy snow from Omaha up through Des Moines. Wouldn't be surprised to see some big totals in a narrow swath there. Des Moines got 7-8" a few weeks ago when there wasn't even an advisory in effect, so it'd be pretty funny if that happened again. No headlines out there as of yet.
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A 13 and 15 inch report now as well up in northwest IL. Probably legit too as this is about as easy of a snow as there is to measure.
