cyclone77

Temps overachieving today, with readings near 70. Dews in the lower 20s making for humidity values in the teens percentage.

Yeah. They have it at about 35 miles in length. They note they are still gathering details about this particular tornado so maybe things will change a bit.

I'm not even sure DVN has realized. I'd imagine they have but it doesn't say anything about it on their page. It makes you wonder if anti-cyclonic circulations have an easier time punching through the stable surface layer. Probably not but maybe an eager college kid can do a paper on it lol.

More evidence the Tue morning tors were anti-cyclonic. The circulation on radar passed a bit north of MLI. The wind there shifted from relatively light easterly, to strong northwesterly at nearly 70mph, and then had 90mph gust from east-northeast on south side of circulation, and then 90mph southeast as circulation moved on by just to the north.

Very interesting that the tors that the monster supercell put down in an environment that had temps near 50 degrees Tue morning in the QCA were all anti-cyclonic. In the Colona video the vid was facing west, and in the beginning the debris is moving right to left, and towards the end it is moving left to right. Radar shows anti-cyclonic couplets as well, particularly the east Geneseo EF-2.

DVN has now confirmed 28 tornadoes between last Friday and Tuesday. Pretty nice start to the severe season around these parts.

Looks like 70s and 80s as far as the eye can see here starting on Sunday. Lawns have really greened up the past several days.

DVN has 23 tors confirmed from the 31st now.

Woke up to a severe warning around 4am. Had 50mph winds for a brief bit, picked up another 0.27".

Picked up 0.86" of rain this morning. After spending most of the day in the 40s and 50s just north of the warm front the temp has vaulted up to 70 as we approach 11pm. Dew up to 63.

Thanks Hawkeye. We were very fortunate here to just barely miss that heaviest hail core, it passed just barely south of town. At work it got as dark as night and winds became pretty strong from the east as the storm approached. Was sort of bizarre as I didn't think the storm was surface based, so why would there be strong inflow? Come to find out later it planted a brief EF2 to our southwest in Colona with temps barely above 50! That was a monster supercell to be sure. EDIT: Forgot to mention, we busted on our chase this evening lol. Till next time...

DVN is definitely taking this pretty serious.. ...Dangerous Severe Weather Today and Tonight... Be Weather Aware! Today and tonight: Volatile and dangerous day ahead with an intense cyclone tracking from CO to se MN. This system will have all the ingredients necessary for severe storms including long- lived supercells producing strong to possibly violent tornadoes, giant hail of 2 inches or greater in diameter (hen egg or larger), and damaging winds of over 75 mph. The wind fields will be very strong with a LLJ of 60-70 kts, and an h250 jet of 170 kts! Deep layer shear will be very strong and SRH values of at least 500 J/kg. More than enough for the potential for long-track tornadoes, especially later this afternoon and into the overnight hours (even more dangerous!). The warm front will lift northward across the cwa which will be key to the location of the strongest tornadoes. Afternoon temps will range from the lower 60s along Hwy 20 to the lower to mid 80s in our southern counties. Dewpoints are expected to be in the lower to mid 60s, similar to last Friday`s event. Today`s temps will be warmer than on Friday and thus CAPE values will be more favorable for explosive development. We will also need to keep an eye on the strength of the cap. Later tonight is when the strong cold front/dry line arrives. Now let`s dig more into the severe details: CAM`s suggest 3 rounds of severe storms. Round 1) This morning scattered elevated supercells producing large hail until about noon. This is when the LLJ strengthens to 40 kts with deep layer shear strengthening and frzg lvls about 11k ft which is ideal for severe hail. Round 2) Later this afternoon/evening the cap begins to break and supercells develop with all modes of dangerous severe weather occurs as mentioned above. Round 3) After midnight a squall line accompanies the strong cold front/dry line with the potential for damaging winds/QLCS tornadoes. Can`t rule out supercells with strong tornadoes during the night due to the very strong shear/wind fields.

Gonna be an interesting choice on which side of the MS river to play on tomorrow. Gonna have to see how things look when I get off work. Encouraged to see the RRFS popping large sups now on the latest run.

Gotta work till 4 but will be out after that. I'm riding the consistent Euro and FV3 till I go down in flames lol. Parameters too strong for me to sit this one out.

I'll give it a D. Late season snows saved it from what was looking like an F. Still finished over 10" below average and was another winter without a warning criteria event. That makes 3 out of the last 4 without one.

So far both LOT and DVN have confirmed 16 tornadoes each in their respective cwas.

Around these parts it seems quite hard to get good synoptic setups without morning crapvection screwing things up. Nice to see both last Friday's and Tuesday's setups free of that.

And then show toilet for taco emergency

The Euro has been very consistent in developing convection across northeast MO and the eastern 1/3 of IA mid-late afternoon for many consecutive runs. This then moves across northern IL/southern WI during the evening. This is all well out ahead of the cold front in the open warm sector. Winds look to stay fairly backed, even well south of the warm front during the afternoon/evening. Looks like a nice little mid-level speed max arrives by late afternoon per Euro.

Last week's warmth and thundery rain has started the greening up process around here. Lawns are waking up from their winter slumber, and tree buds have swollen.

DVN has rated the tor in their western cwa as an EF4... After collaboration with a team of survey experts, we have determined a prelim. rating of low end EF4 for the tornado that tracked from Wapello into Johnson County IA. Max estimated winds around 170 mph. Max width around 600 yards. The EF4 damage occurred at a farmstead N/NE of Keota in Keokuk County, where a house was swept off the foundation. We are still finalizing additional details.

Got back in town this afternoon. Yard is a mess with sticks/small branches down all over. Looks like the wind peaked at 56mph on the weather station, which is 5ft above the ground. Guessing we had 65-70mph winds here. Picked up 1.31" of rain.

That is nice to hear.

This thread seems quieter. I'm not able to look at models much atm, is this setup still looking as impressive?

Yeah we come back tomorrow. At least it's been a fun trip lol. Saw some nice thunderheads earlier from stuff blowing up all over. It sort of wussed out though. Extremely windy now with drier air advecting in.