cyclone77

GEM with a nice little thread the needle event later this week. It's highly unlikely, but sort of shows how close this system is to being something halfway decent for a limited area.

Got down to 12 this morning. Hard to believe it's already been 2 weeks since the blizzard. Still have a good 1-2" of cover over most of the yard, with bare areas in the usual spots. Temps look to go above freezing for the next several days, so it looks like we'll be back to bare ground/remaining piles by later in the week. Really feel fortunate to have had such a sustained cover for so early in the season.

We may be a little slow sometimes, but when you see this gif show up the party really starts cookin'

Temp made it to 38 today. Was enough to melt quite a bit of snow. Down to about 1-2" now, with large patches of grass showing in the usual places that melt first. Was nice to see the sun again.

I'm gonna say it goes down to 972mb as it goes north through Chicago, while a band of 14-18" falls from eastern MO up into southwest WI.

A day full of mood flakes. Always nice to see with xmas music playing in the background at work. Snowed enough to whiten the pavement a bit.

We were definitely overdue for a quiet period, as it's been a very active weather pattern for quite awhile. Hopefully the latter half of Dec picks pack up a bit.

Picked up 0.2" of snow early this morning. Enough to make the snow pack look a bit fresher.

Snow has begun to mix in with the rain. Nice sized flakes. Temp has dropped from 38 to 35 in the past hour or so.

Wow! I'm thinking it hit the house across the street, as they were the only ones who lost power. It did knock the internet out for a few mins though. If it did in fact hit their house they're lucky it didn't catch fire. Despite the heavy rains and temps being well above freezing for over 24hrs we still have a good 3-4" of cement left. It's extremely dirty looking snow though, as there's all kinds of debris strewn across it. The strong winds yesterday morning knocked down quite a few twigs, and even a few small dead branches. Also quite a few leaves blowing about still. Whenever this snow melts I still need to get out and finish mulching leaves, and burn off my burn pile. Hopefully we can get a few warm days while the pattern remains quiet in the next week or so.

Been alive for over 40 years now, but the crash of thunder that hit around 6pm was the craziest/loudest thunder I've ever heard. Not sure where the bolt hit, but it had to be within 100yds. Lit up the whole inside of the house and instantly crashed and shook the house. Scared the living shit out of me lol. Funny thing is up until then, and even after the thunder was mainly the distant/slow rolling kind. it had to be one of those high amp positive strikes. That was honestly almost more impressive than the blizzard earlier this week.

30-40mph east winds and a driving rain much of the morning. Picked up about a half inch. Snow has melted/compacted down to about 4", and is looking pretty mangy now lol. Tornado watch only about 50 miles away. Would have loved to have gone chasing today. EDIT: Thundering now, as an elevated storm is approaching.

Alpena, MI (APN) 90" Chicago, IL (ORD) 44" Cleveland, OH (CLE) 59" Columbus, OH (CMH) 29" Detroit, MI (DTW) 41" Fort Wayne, IN (FWA) 26" Grand Rapids, MI (GRR) 73" Green Bay, WI (GRB) 47" Indianapolis, IN (IND) 24" La Crosse, WI (LSE) 42" London, ON (YXU) 78" Louisville, KY (SDF) 9" Marquette, MI (MQT) 175" Milwaukee, WI (MKE) 43" Minneapolis, MN (MSP) 47" Moline, IL (MLI) 46" Paducah, KY (PAH) 11" Peoria, IL (PIA) 31" St. Louis, MO (STL) 24" Toronto, ON (YYZ) 41" Tiebreakers 1. December 2018 snowfall ORD 6.7" 2. January 2019 snowfall IND 9.6" 3. February 2019 snowfall DTW 13.4"

GFS and the FV3-GFS=

Nice soaker coming up Sat morning. Gonna be very messy as all the storm drains are blocked off with snow, and roads in town are still snow packed.

I say bring the pain! Let's make this a memorable season lol. Not that it isn't already.

That Dec 2012 blizzard was awesome. That's the only time I've ever seen heavy rain change to heavy snow. Usually the rain will have a tendency to lighten up a bit before it changes over to snow, and then take awhile to transition. That one went from a heavy driving rain to heavy wet snow in <10 mins. Even with the wet ground the snow started sticking pretty much instantly. Only neg about that system was the relatively short duration in all-out blizzard conditions. Picked up several inches in a short time, but it wound down a little too fast to be a really high-end event.

This is a fun early season system to track, but one neg is this looks like it may be sort of a thread the needle type of an event. Looks like it could end up being a relatively narrow swath of potentially warning criteria snows, with not much else outside of the main swath. Also very little warm sector precip with this wave, which is in stark contrast to the wave that precedes it.

Encouraged to see that the Sun-Mon system is continuing to look fairly potent on most of the guidance. GFS-FV3 lays down over a foot of snow for eastern IA/northern IL/southern WI. That would be insane to see something like that this early for this area.

Would sure like to lock in the 12z GEM lol.

Twisterdata hasn't evolved at all for almost 10 years but I still go there to look at the RAP for some reason. They still don't have the HRRR, 3km NAM, etc. I still like their graphics though, and there's probably a bit of nostalgia there as well lol.

The Euro has been advertising a fairly potent system around the 26th for a few runs now. A long ways out but something to watch. There is a lead system on the 24th that could play havoc with how the main system evolves. May cause the models fits since the two waves are close enough that their interaction could muddle things. The wave around the 26th looks like it could be quite potent if everything times out just right.

Definitely got your money's worth with that.

The wireless transmitter on my Davis VP2 died a few days ago. Only a few years old. Had the Davis Vue for 5 years with no issues, but have only had the VP2 a little over 2yrs before this issue. Not too impressed. It's about $120 for a new transmitter. For those who are looking to buy the more expensive VP2, I'd just stick with the cheaper Vue. It's not quite as accurate, but still pretty darn close. The price difference really isn't worth it IMO.

That attic vent looks pretty similar to the one from that movie lol