cyclone77

Yeah think the NWS came up with the 6hr board clearing to standardize the method so everyone does it the same way. Most of the time not clearing after 6hrs isn't going to impact too much unless there's some melting, or if the snow is getting really deep. In most cases unless the snow starts exceeding 5 or 6 inches the compaction isn't enough to really worry about. However, clearing too often def has an inflating impact on totals lol.

Just shy of 6" here as of a bit ago. I usually don't clear my areas until it's done snowing. Most of the time it's because I'm not home to do it every 6hrs, but like with todays case I just left it. Unless there's massive compaction/melting going on I like to go with what actually accumulates depth wise.

5.4" as of 7pm. Snow rate has slowed down to a few tenths per hour. Gonna be close, but still got a shot at 6".

5" on the nose as of 5pm. HRRR/RAP are showing a nice little blob of heavier totals over us, with another 0.15-0.20" precip through this eve. If that happens we may make a run at 7" lol. What a storm.

Mexico MO said hold my beer. A report of 19.0" from a spotter there.

There's a few reports near Columbia MO of 15-16". Looks like they were ground zero for this event. Very impressive. A smidge over 4" here. Rates have slowed a bit from earlier, but still slowly adding up out there.

That storm would crash the board lol.

It's a big win for us after facing a possible DAB event not too long ago lol. I love these long-duration events.

3.5" here as of 1pm. Had a little over 4" at work when I left about 45 min ago. Had a nice period of rates around mid-morning. The snow is fairly wet, and is sticking to trees, etc with relatively light winds. Looks like perhaps another 2" or so, so we'll make a run at 6". If you would have told me yesterday we'd have a shot at 6" I would have spit out my drink.

Looks like we're closing in on an inch here. HRRR/RAP show over 1/2" of precip, so we look to make a run at 6". Always nice to see things trend in the good direction in the final 12hrs instead of the opposite lol.

Very nice. Yeah has 0.6" of precip up here now as well. Very nice trends this evening. As we used to say in the old days...wagons north!

Latest HRRRRR continues the trend for wetter/further north along the I-80 corridor. Now the QC is solidly in the 0.5"+ area on the HRRR, with over 0.6" on the RAP. Looking like the QC has a shot at more of a 5-6" type event based on these trends. Think I'll bump my call for here from 1-2" to 3-4", and the QC from 2-3" up to 5-6". Still not 100% sure, but it's looking like the nasty gradient I was concerned with may set up a bit north of here.

Yeah it's nice to see the high-res models trending more towards the Euro and GFS as we get closer. Another big change that has been slowly evolving over the past few days is how much slower the storm is to get out of the area. A few days back this was looking like the snow would be exiting stage right by noon at the latest in this area. Now much of the guidance keeps snow festering into the evening hours.

I'll take the 03z RAP please. Brings 0.7" as far north as here lol. Nice to dream anyway.

Me too lol. A few of the latest HRRR/RAP runs, and the new 3km do look a smidge further north, so there's that. What really surprises me is how much precip has amped up in far southeast Iowa. Looks like 10"+ now down there if those runs are correct. To quote Ron Burgundy, that escalated quickly.

Very difficult forecast for this area, as most models have the steep gradient setting up north of I-80. Encouraged to see the Euro/UK shift north. At this point I'm leaning more on the short-term high-res models. Think the globals are a little too loosey goosey with the northern gradient, as we've seen time and again the northern cutoffs be very sharp with these systems. If an area fails to achieve top-down saturation within the initial surge northward it will probably be game over for that location. The initial northward surge appears to be the most robust, so it will be kinda hard to saturate the column with subsequent weaker "surges" with dry air fighting in from the northeast. Still gonna ride 1-2" for here, but wouldn't be surprised to see even less, or if we're really lucky and get a good bump north it's possible we could get 3" or so. 2-3" for QC still looks good.

06z HRRR stalls the northern fringe pretty close to here and Cedar Rapids, and drops <0.1" of precip at both locations. Going to be a nail biter here lol. It's an outlier, as most other models show 0.2-0.3" for both areas. Gonna keep riding my 1-2" call for here, and go with 2-3" for the QC.

Looks like around 0.25" at CR. Pretty steep gradient in the area though, with about 0.11" in far north Linn Co, and 0.33" in far south Linn Co.

Looks like about 0.67" of precip for Peoria. So about 7" with a hair over 10:1 LSRs which seems reasonable.

New Euro brings warning criteria snows up to Peoria and over towards the LAF area. Also a nice 6-8" snow for the Indy area. Close to 0.5" for Columbus OH as well, and as some have pointed out sometimes models weaken these systems a bit too quickly so a warning criteria snow for them is possible.

If this storm would have came in about 12hrs later the Chiefs game Sunday afternoon would have been one to remember. The snow will have just left the area by the time the game starts around 3pm IIRC.

It bombed with the Nov 25th storm. Was adamant about heavy snows much further northwest than all other guidance until at the last minute. Other than that I'm not sure how well it's done.

Gonna have to keep an eye on that. 00z HRRR seems a bit south with the northern fringe compared to some other guidance. These northern fringes always trend sharper as we get closer, so wouldn't be surprised to see some pretty big gradients on tomorrow's runs. Really wouldn't be surprised if Waterloo/Dubuque go flakeless while the I-80 corridor cashes in with 4"+. EDIT: Another thing to watch will be if an enhanced band can set up on the extreme north fringe as the dry air tries to fight the northward movement. Sometimes you can get some overperforming with that.

Tough call here as we'll be pretty close to the northern edge. Looks like a 1-2" type event. Enough to make it look wintry again.

3km NAM looking pretty nasty with that northern cutoff. Keeps areas north of I-80 bone dry.