cyclone77
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Everything posted by cyclone77
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Looks like it must be further south with that initial fronto band. This sort of illustrates that for the DVN area it might actually be better if the whole system ends up south, as it moves the "screw zone" south out of the area. Interestingly the NAMs don't have this zone of screwage like what the GFS has shown for the past several runs. It just adds to the uncertainty of how this will evolve. Guess we'll find out as we go forward lol.
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NAM and GFS be like
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At some point I'd love to head out that way and get into one of those lake-effect bands. Other than the meager flurries we'll get from the lake on rare occasion I've never been in a true lake-effect snow band.
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The frizzle from the past few nights has resulted in a nice shiny glaze on the top of the snow pack. The snow has settled back to about 4" in depth since Saturday.
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I'm kind of puzzled as to which side to choose. Usually I'd lean towards the hi-res around this time, but the globals seem to be holding their ground. If the Euro comes in similar to it's previous few runs I really won't know what to think lol.
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Looks pretty similar to the 12z for this area. Would like this system to slow down a little. Not a big fan of these fast movers for appreciable amounts.
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Pretty short duration event on the Euro for the DVN cwa. Looks like a meager 2-4" type event vs 3-6" on most other 12z guidance. All and all pretty meh, but a nice refresher.
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If this storm continues to wuss out as we get closer I'm hoping that means the early week storm trends stronger. Could definitely see that scenario play out.
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This morning's UK model run doesn't seem quite as crazy now lol.
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Since it was horrific with the last storm hopefully it's out to lunch with this run. Will be interesting to see what the GEFS do.
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Nice jump north on that 18z. Wagons north!
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Indy to Mansfield OH do really well on the Euro. That southern cutoff means business from southern IN through the southern half of OH. A nice 3-5" powder event for most of the DVN/LOT areas outside the LM snow belt.
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Yeah that was not a very good run for north IL. Hopefully the 00z guidance stops the bleeding lol.
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Yeah I'm hoping the GFS is just GFS-ing and is wrong about that mini-screw zone over much of the DVN cwa lol. Although the new GEM shows that too. Still a long ways to go so we'll see what happens.
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If it's any consolation a legend posted it!
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5-6" of fresh powder for this area on the new Euro. Not nearly as exciting as areas south and east but I'd definitely take it.
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Nice. Really can't get too much more spread the wealth than that.
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Still pretty far away but it's looking like downstate IL is looking pretty good for this. Hoping for 3+ inches of fluff to freshen up the snowpack here.
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I don't really follow the Ukie all that much, but from what I've seen it seems to bounce around from run to run way more than other medium-range models.
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Winter 2018-19 Medium/Long Range Discussion
cyclone77 replied to snowlover2's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Wow, -30 down close to the KY border? Impressive. -
Lol, yeah was definitely spooked by those insane cutoff/gradients we've seen in recent storms.
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Car temp hit 6 degrees just outside of town about an hour ago while driving back into town. Drove through the thickest fog I've ever seen in that area as well. No joke you couldn't see much past the front bumper in patches of extremely dense ground/ice fog.
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Guess I'll see if the hot hand keeps working. Multiple medium-range guidance shows a fairly decent storm system Friday night through Saturday. Hopefully it's another spread-the-wealth type system.
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Winter 2018-19 Medium/Long Range Discussion
cyclone77 replied to snowlover2's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Sweet jebus, my coffee mug frosted over just looking at that. -
Finished with 6.2" here. I definitely sucked forecasting this one lol.
