cyclone77

Oh wow, that's interesting. Learn something new everyday lol.

Ice jams could become a huge issue for a wide area if a quick warm up like what some of the models have shown were to occur.

It's definitely a red flag. Interesting to see many models trending quite quickly in the wetter/south direction while the HRRR/RAP are very stingy. The RAP/HRRR struggled with the last few events beyond the 12hr mark. We'll have to keep watching to see if it has to play catch-up, or if it is on to something. It's gonna have to start trending wetter/south before too much longer or I'm afraid it may actually be on the right track with this. I'll stick with my 3-5" for this area for now. Last night's Euro showed fairly similar amounts along the southern edge, so will be interested to see the new 12z.

Quite the challenge along the southern edge based on the latest guidance. The GFS and RGEM have 0.4-0.5" of precip for the QCA, while the HRRR/RAP/3km NAM have considerably less precip. You would think leaning on those higher-res models would be the way to go at this point, but the shift south with the heavier precip on the other models is noteworthy. From a forecast standpoint the best bet is to just go with a wide range of totals, which is a bit frustrating lol.

New Euro now shows -30 to -33 readings Thu morning over northwest IL/extreme eastern IA. Also only -20 around noon on Wed for the same areas. Very impressive. EDIT: I should point out the 12z Euro showed 63 degree warmth the following Monday over these same areas. I'd wager my retirement fund anything over 60 is not possible no matter what kind of insane pattern shift took place.

I'm gonna go with 3-5" for this area. I know I said I wasn't going to make a forecast after my past few performances but I can't help it lol. Good chance I'm wrong again, but it's all in fun eh?

Just simply amazing to see that level of cold with winds still whipping at 10-15kts. Usually to get temps in that -20 to -30 range you need to have ultra-optimal radiational cooling like what we had early this morning. Even then it's usually only the favored low-lying areas that get in on those extremely low readings. If the above works out and we see widespread -25 or lower this will definitely be one to remember. Looks like Thursday morning has the best shot at getting into all-time record territory. That's when the surface ridge axis moves into the sub and drops winds to nearly calm. Of course WAA will already be taking place above the surface, but there's usually a lag down near the surface with these extreme arctic setups. If clouds don't muck things up I can def see Thursday morning being the one to watch for the lowest readings of this setup in the DVN/LOT areas.

Nice. Yeah today was definitely a nice little over-performer.

Was kind of thinking the same. The past two clippers layed down quite a bit of fluff on top of an already blow-able snow. If we can get a brief period of rain/freezing rain it would make the 3rd layer of ice within the snow pack lol.

Seeing how cold it got this morning really makes me wonder what we may see with the main surge. It seemingly effortly dropped deep into the -20s which was very surprising. Granted we had perfect radiational cooling over fresh/deep/dry snow pack. Kinda makes ya wonder how cold it may get later this week if a certain area can max out their radiational cooling like what happened this morning.

The one I was mentioning is a second, narrower band of convective looking precip. This was along the strong cold front/wind shift. 3km NAM btw.

Haha yep. Snow winding down now, with 1.7" the total.

Yeah I'd say the ratios are well north of 20:1. Stacked up quite nicely.

I'm liking the front end thump potential, even this far south. Obviously won't be as heavy as further north, but a decent period of snow with 2+" is quite likely. With over 14" on the ground I can live with that lol.

Oh yeah. This has been like the kind of snow you see in movies.

That squally looking line of precip along the strong cold front Monday looks pretty interesting on the 3km NAM. Will be interesting to see if future runs continue to show that feature. Curious to see if the HRRR shows it as well when it gets into range. Would coincide with a pretty quick temp crash with the front.

Yeah this one today has been a big improvement over yesterday's here. It's been non-stop snow globe action since it began around noon. Looks like close to an inch and a half of some of the fluffiest snow I've seen. Pretty impressive to go from nearly -20 to moderate snowfall in <5hrs.

Hit -19 early this morning here. Car temp hit -26 between here and Hillsdale on the way to work. Drove through some extremely dense ice fog. Very impressed by that -28 up at Sterling. It's an ASOS now as well, unlike back in 2008 during that cold snap when it was still an AWOS site.

Several northern IL sites down below -20. Rochelle is -23, and Savanna was -24 a short bit ago. MLI tanked after that light north wind died off, and is now down to -19. -17 here right now.

Was looping the 3km NAM radar simulation a bit earlier, and I can definitely envision the system digging further south before it turns more easterly. That would have a big impact further downstream. Not saying it's going to happen, but that's one thing to watch out for as we go forward.

I think MLI may have a little problem with UHI tonight as well. They can be one of the colder spots around, but tonight we have a very slight north wind that may be advecting the UHI impacted temps down to MLI from the QC. Surrounding locations are quite a bit colder.

The new Euro came in a little better with (what now is today's) wave. Could be a repeat of today, with around an inch of fluffy snow from east Iowa through northern IL.

Euro would still be a decent 2-4" type event for the QCA. Would be a nice refresher before the arctic intrusion.

A potential "consolation prize" for those well south of the low center could be sort of an interesting temp crash with the cold front. For example the NAM has Cedar Rapids in the mid 30s around 12z Monday, and by 18z it's in the lower teens. Would think there could be some decent instability snow showers in the midst of all that CAA as well.