cyclone77

New Euro is a dog turd duster for the DVN cwa, but a nice hit from Hoosier up towards Detroit/YYZ.

A complete miss southeast is possible, but I'm gonna ride my 1-3" call even if it goes down in flames

Quite a substantial difference remains between here and MLI, which is only about 25-30 miles. They hit at least 57, and we hit 46. Their 57 was only a degree from tying the old record. Upper 70s in southern MO, with even a few 80 degree readings just south of the MO border in far northern AR.

If models trend southeast hopefully this will be a nice hit for the downstate IL to Ohio crew. They are definitely due.

Yeah last winter was one of my all-time favorites. Everything seemed to over-perform, and of course we had the all-time record cold. Had a 6 week down period, but other than that it was fantastic. The winter before that we had that awesome late March event that dumped over 10" here, while areas a county to the north got squat. Unless the snow completely shuts off we should end up close to average this winter. The only frustrating thing about this winter is the lack of daytime snows, but that's just being a bit picky. Also, no warning criteria events, but it's hard to complain about that when folks off to the east are having a horrific winter.

It's only a matter of time until you get dumped on while we sit under an empty cirrostratus canopy lol.

Not too far away at MLI they're up to 51 already, but only 43 here. Still the warmest it's been in quite awhile and should continue to denature our snow pack. Very nice to see the sun after days upon days of gloom and frizzle.

Trying to narrow down the exact path of these multiple waves be like

FYP

I'll go with 1-3" for the first call for here/QC. Good chance that will be the final call. Nocturnal nickel and diming our way towards an avg winter. Def could be worse.

I love GFS.

GFS and the Euro continue to indicate some sort of threat around the 4-5th. About the only thing to watch so hopefully the threat continues as we get closer.

Ground zero @ 384hrs out on the op GFS. What can go wrong?

Euro and GFS both showing a big dump of cold air around the 4th-5th of Feb. Hopefully something of quality can develop on the leading edge of that. Until then, zzzzz.

Lock it in.

I'm surprised at the relative lack of big lake snows there. Ever since you moved from LAF back to where you are now I can't remember you having a major lake event there. Maybe I just forgot lol. I always figured anywhere from the IN/IL border and points east got blasted all the time during the winter. Guess it isn't as common as I thought.

Looking pretty quiet the next 7-10 days.

Euro throwing you a bone with a nice snowstorm. GFS says It's an ALEK special.

I think I remember seeing a post from him awhile back saying he was going somewhere tropical on vacation.

There's gonna be a lot of frozen dog turds to kick around.

This feels like an Arkansas winter. Hopefully that means we'll get a late Jan/February tornado outbreak to top it off.

Excellent, that would be just what we all need lol.

Hopefully we can get a system to track sometime soon that has a snow band that's wider than 50 miles. This sub desperately needs a share the wealth system.

These positive tilted/southern stream dominant systems always underperform with cold sector precip. Cold sector precip is narrow/fleeting where it occurs. Without a northern stream component to phase with this will be a non-event except for maybe a 25 mile wide area that gets a quick 2-3" of slop.