cyclone77

I'm done with winter, but if it would do something like that I'd be down for it.

SPC removed most of north IL from the day 2 threat. Euro and RGEM both continue to develop some precip over the area, so I guess we'll have to see how things evolve.

3km NAM and HRRR are worlds apart with how tomorrow will be in the warm sector. The 3km NAM has us at 68 at 21z tomorrow, while the HRRR has us at 83. HRRR also mixes so deep that it lowers surface dews down below 60.

18z 3km NAM continues to show expansive cloud cover that severely limits surface heating for most of the risk area Tuesday. Will be interesting to see if the HRRR shows this as well when we get within 36hrs. If the NAM verifies this one is DOA.

3km NAM looks to be way under-doing surface temps compared to the Euro. It looks like it has extensive cloud cover that limits heating throughout the day, and resulting in a stout EML above the cooler surface temps. The Euro has been advertising a much more mixed, warmer surface regime for many days, and results in surface temps 10+ degrees warmer. It continues to insist on convection taking off later Tue afternoon over northern IL, in a fairly impressive thermodynamic environment. It will be interesting to see which model wins out.

Yeah there's definitely some conditional potential there. 00z NAM showing some capping around H8 that would limit potential. Would make sense with warm southwesterly flow feeding into the area above the BL. Not much in the way of height falls either to help. EC has been consistent in breaking out precip/convection around 00z late Tue, so that is encouraging. Previous runs of the NAM have less capping compared to the new 00z, so hopefully trends reverse with subsequent NAM cycles.

Freezing rain in April, 6 days after what very easily could have been a major tornado outbreak. Gotta love it.

Hopefully we can tag our first 80 Tue. Euro shows over 1500J/Kg of cape, so hopefully we can get some good convection later in the day as well.

Made it to 65 here. CF passed about 2:30 or so, and have since dropped back to 50.

Still working 5-6 days a week, with over 2000 employees where I work. There are personnel taking everyones temps upon arrival everyday, but fever may not show up until other symptoms arise, which would be too late. I pretty much plan on getting it at some point over the next month or two. If I don't that's great. If so, hopefully I'll kick it's ass and move on. Outside of work I just do my best to minimize exposure to others as much as possible.

Looks like mid 60s Thu & Fri here, and then 70s Mon & Tue. This time next week I suspect the leaves will be creeping out of their swollen buds.

April fools!

Think Broyles half-assed it per usual. Based on model data last eve the threat should have been much further north in coverage. Later model data could change that, but based off the data he should have been looking at the threat area was poorly outlined.

It's in there

Well I wasn't going to go there, but thanks for clarifying that lol.

That combo is a ticking time bomb without the help of the virus.

Pretty lame event overall today. The DVN area getting decaying Iowa sloppy seconds per usual. Still waiting on first thunder since last fall or summer.

Yeah would have been a long ride back.

If I had all the time in the world I likely would have chased today. But as per usual work limited my chance. Hopefully some storms can manage to make it in here later this evening for a little lightning.

A memo from the top came out today at work stating we aren't shutting down. Over 2000 employees work there so this may get interesting.

Thunderless rain this time of the year is pretty lame. Maybe April will provide us with a little thunder.

18z GFS has a nice 6-10" snowstorm all along the I-80 corridor from Iowa to northern Ohio about 300hrs out. One more model run and I say let's start a thread.

For the record, the big storm I was prognosticating wasn't until the end of the month lol.

Congrats Little Rock!

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