cyclone77

Just another tidbit to lol at. From 7-13" to what will likely be not a flake. This is the granddaddy of all busts for this area.

For a little perspective for those further upstream of this pos. This is how things have changed in the last 24hrs. Who knows what the difference will be between tonight and tomorrow night at this rate. Last night at this time we were looking at this fresh off the press from the 3km NAM. 24hrs later, this is what it shows from the same ending period of 12z Wed.

Wow what a pos of a "storm". This one will be lucky to drop a sloppy inch or two in nw PA.

DVN hasn't updated their fb page in over 12hrs. Last update still shows 8" for QC. I guess that's one way to get around a bunch of angry posts from the public, just stay silent and hope they forget what you posted earlier lol.

Out of the game here obviously, so it almost feels like I'm sitting in one of those lifeboats looking back at the Titanic as she slowly sinks.

Almost seems to be getting worse from southwest to northeast, along the main axis of snowfall. So not only is it shifting southeast, it's weakening from southwest to northeast. By this time tomorrow we might be looking at a 1-3"er from Indy to Cleveland lol.

Haha, no doubt. I guess I'll also have to stick with my call for the biggest dog of the season, the late March southern IL to southern OH whopper.

March is gonna come in like a weak/strung-out pos, and go out like a weak/strung-out pos.

Guess the GFS was a little off with this.

It now looks quite possible that this area, and the QC won't receive a single flake out of this. What an amazing collapse. The 06z 3km NAM showed a stripe of 12-15" for the area. That's 14hrs ago when that model came out lol. Wow. EDIT: From the COD kuchera method, 06z had 15.7" for MLI. The new 18z has 0.1"

That's pretty brutal. I'm sure there's some big busts from the old days I've mentally blocked out lol, but this one would surely rank towards the top if Euro and others work out. 8" still being forecast 12-18hrs from event. Another tiny bump south and it's entirely possible we won't see a flake. You just gotta love this winter.

LMAO!! Feel bad for local TV mets and NWS peeps. They're gonna hear a lot of complaining from the public on this one. NWS still showing 8" for the QC. Worst bust of all time hands down. (Unless there's a last minute miracle lol).

Probably because you would think it couldn't possibly happen yet again right?

DVN still going with 8" for here/QC. Looking more and more like a 0.5-1.5" type of event lol. For whatever reason the models seem to be over-amping/phasing everything in the 30-90hr range this season. It seems like the Euro is slowly reverting back to what it was showing beyond 90+hrs.

Yeah tonight's 00z run suite should have fully sampled the final wave. Sort of interesting to see the UK finally bump northwest after days of showing pretty much zero here, and meanwhile the Euro actually ticked a bit more southeast. The interaction/phasing of the two main waves seems pretty complex when you loop through the various model data. It's no surprise all of the guidance is struggling with trying to narrow down what the effective weather will end up being. All that being said, I'm still optimistic that we can bang out a 6"er here.

That's why I had to go check it out lol.

FWIW the 21z RAP shows a 997mb low near Champaign at 12z Tue, with snow ripping over north IL into east IA.

00z NAM actually decently better for here/QC than the 18z was. Things are looking up lol.

The differences between today's 3km NAM runs were definitely lol worthy. For example... The 12z The 18z And an exclusive sneak peek at tonight's new 00z..

Newly updated point has 7-13" here by Wed. Not too shabby.

Somewhere in the back channels the NGM still grinds out model data for them.

I'll take it. 4.4" would make the top 2 event this winter.

You can tell spring is almost hear. The deafening sounds of motorcyles tearing through the neighborhood are back. Yipee. Made it to 57 here so far, 60 at MLI. Very nice!