cyclone77

March is gonna come in like a weak/strung-out pos, and go out like a weak/strung-out pos.

Guess the GFS was a little off with this.

It now looks quite possible that this area, and the QC won't receive a single flake out of this. What an amazing collapse. The 06z 3km NAM showed a stripe of 12-15" for the area. That's 14hrs ago when that model came out lol. Wow. EDIT: From the COD kuchera method, 06z had 15.7" for MLI. The new 18z has 0.1"

That's pretty brutal. I'm sure there's some big busts from the old days I've mentally blocked out lol, but this one would surely rank towards the top if Euro and others work out. 8" still being forecast 12-18hrs from event. Another tiny bump south and it's entirely possible we won't see a flake. You just gotta love this winter.

LMAO!! Feel bad for local TV mets and NWS peeps. They're gonna hear a lot of complaining from the public on this one. NWS still showing 8" for the QC. Worst bust of all time hands down. (Unless there's a last minute miracle lol).

Probably because you would think it couldn't possibly happen yet again right?

DVN still going with 8" for here/QC. Looking more and more like a 0.5-1.5" type of event lol. For whatever reason the models seem to be over-amping/phasing everything in the 30-90hr range this season. It seems like the Euro is slowly reverting back to what it was showing beyond 90+hrs.

Yeah tonight's 00z run suite should have fully sampled the final wave. Sort of interesting to see the UK finally bump northwest after days of showing pretty much zero here, and meanwhile the Euro actually ticked a bit more southeast. The interaction/phasing of the two main waves seems pretty complex when you loop through the various model data. It's no surprise all of the guidance is struggling with trying to narrow down what the effective weather will end up being. All that being said, I'm still optimistic that we can bang out a 6"er here.

That's why I had to go check it out lol.

FWIW the 21z RAP shows a 997mb low near Champaign at 12z Tue, with snow ripping over north IL into east IA.

00z NAM actually decently better for here/QC than the 18z was. Things are looking up lol.

The differences between today's 3km NAM runs were definitely lol worthy. For example... The 12z The 18z And an exclusive sneak peek at tonight's new 00z..

Newly updated point has 7-13" here by Wed. Not too shabby.

Somewhere in the back channels the NGM still grinds out model data for them.

I'll take it. 4.4" would make the top 2 event this winter.

You can tell spring is almost hear. The deafening sounds of motorcyles tearing through the neighborhood are back. Yipee. Made it to 57 here so far, 60 at MLI. Very nice!

Hopefully the 12z suite overdid it a bit with the southeast trend, and things correct back nw with the 00z runs. Either way, I'm riding the 6" call till I go down in flames lol. NAM FTW!

Like I said last month, biggest dog will prob be late March from far southern IL to southern OH. One last middle finger from ma nature to the majority of this sub lol.

Is Jackstraw reeling in another medium dog??

I'm all in. Going 6"+ for here/QC.

If you look closely you can see a big shelf of ice/snow that has broken off the southeast shoreline of LM, and floated "out to sea" several miles.

Does seem pretty strange how Cedar Rapids seems to always fail at getting a footer considering they line up with Dubuque/Madison for cutters. Just must be terrible luck I guess.

Lock in the Euro.