cyclone77

Almost 240 severe hail reports now, with over 30 2"+ hail reports. Extremely impressive. Numerous pics from Davenport and Bettendorf on local news fb pages showing hail between 2-3" in diameter. Baseballs were falling in fairly highly populated areas. Insurance adjusters are going to be busy for awhile in that area.

Already 170 severe hail reports today, with 17 of those at 2" or larger. Looks like this could have been a moderate, with hatched hail extended back into eastern IA. A definite overperformer to be sure, at least on the west end of things.

Dodged a major bullet here. Sup dropping golfballs veered just enough to miss this area, and nail Davenport, and now the northeast portion of the IL QC.

Yep, and RGEM as well. Big time fail for the NAMs.

Hoping those cells coming in from the Cedar Rapids area crap out, or veer a bit south. Don't want any part of golfball size hail. EDIT: SPC got a little too cute with their western portion of the storm outlooks. Numerous severe well west of even the marginal risk area.

Made it to 78 here, and 79 at MLI. Had quite a bit of cloud cover that lasted into early afternoon, otherwise low to mid 80s would have been likely. Nice thunderhead gracing the northern horizon, with a nice flank of TCU feeding in from the left (west-southwest). EDIT: Seen MLI hit 81 at 5:05 ob, so that should be at least 80.

I'm done with winter, but if it would do something like that I'd be down for it.

SPC removed most of north IL from the day 2 threat. Euro and RGEM both continue to develop some precip over the area, so I guess we'll have to see how things evolve.

3km NAM and HRRR are worlds apart with how tomorrow will be in the warm sector. The 3km NAM has us at 68 at 21z tomorrow, while the HRRR has us at 83. HRRR also mixes so deep that it lowers surface dews down below 60.

18z 3km NAM continues to show expansive cloud cover that severely limits surface heating for most of the risk area Tuesday. Will be interesting to see if the HRRR shows this as well when we get within 36hrs. If the NAM verifies this one is DOA.

3km NAM looks to be way under-doing surface temps compared to the Euro. It looks like it has extensive cloud cover that limits heating throughout the day, and resulting in a stout EML above the cooler surface temps. The Euro has been advertising a much more mixed, warmer surface regime for many days, and results in surface temps 10+ degrees warmer. It continues to insist on convection taking off later Tue afternoon over northern IL, in a fairly impressive thermodynamic environment. It will be interesting to see which model wins out.

Yeah there's definitely some conditional potential there. 00z NAM showing some capping around H8 that would limit potential. Would make sense with warm southwesterly flow feeding into the area above the BL. Not much in the way of height falls either to help. EC has been consistent in breaking out precip/convection around 00z late Tue, so that is encouraging. Previous runs of the NAM have less capping compared to the new 00z, so hopefully trends reverse with subsequent NAM cycles.

Freezing rain in April, 6 days after what very easily could have been a major tornado outbreak. Gotta love it.

Hopefully we can tag our first 80 Tue. Euro shows over 1500J/Kg of cape, so hopefully we can get some good convection later in the day as well.

Made it to 65 here. CF passed about 2:30 or so, and have since dropped back to 50.

Still working 5-6 days a week, with over 2000 employees where I work. There are personnel taking everyones temps upon arrival everyday, but fever may not show up until other symptoms arise, which would be too late. I pretty much plan on getting it at some point over the next month or two. If I don't that's great. If so, hopefully I'll kick it's ass and move on. Outside of work I just do my best to minimize exposure to others as much as possible.

Looks like mid 60s Thu & Fri here, and then 70s Mon & Tue. This time next week I suspect the leaves will be creeping out of their swollen buds.

April fools!

Yep I've been out getting all the equipment ready. Prob be cutting grass in about 8-14 days. Ready, set, mow, yo!

DVN just confirmed a brief EF-1 about 12 miles east-southeast of here, south of Prophetstown. Happened well after sunset so I didn't miss anything.

Getting frequent 40-45mph gusts. MLI hit 49mph earlier. The landscape has dramatically greened up after all the rain, and fixed nitrogen from the lightning. Trees have swelled buds. Won't be long before leaves start popping out.

Over 3.5" of rain since late last evening. There's standing water everywhere, even 12+hrs after the rains mostly shut off. Won't take much to get us up over the 4" mark if we get any kind of action later on. From 3.3" snow 6 days ago, to a flash flood event, and now a PDS tor watch.

If I was out I'd wanna be on that cell coming up towards Quincy. Winds nicely backed ahead of it, and moisture levels in that area are pretty nice.

3.18" now. The end is in sight though, as the back-building of this particular band has finally crapped the bed.

Oh yeah, well on our way. Now over 2.6", with almost an inch since midnight. Torrential rain falling right now, so we'll blow by 3" in the next 10-15mins. Lots of flash flooding going on from here down into the QC. EDIT: Just ran downstairs to check the basement, since this is the first very heavy rain event in the new house. So far so good.