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LVblizzard

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  1. LVblizzard
    Interesting how the snow went more north than expected (seeing reports of flakes north of Danbury, CT) but the heavy snow just did not want to reach SE PA at all. I can’t find a single report of over 2 inches in the entire Philly metro area.
  2. LVblizzard
    I wish I could buy the GFS but I just don’t. It’s possible but we need everything to come together perfectly. While there’s a chance it’s not a very good one.
  3. LVblizzard
    Steady light snow in Allentown. All surfaces covered.
  4. LVblizzard
    This thread is awfully dead for a snow event that will begin in about 5-6 hours. We may not be getting the big amounts like DC, but it’ll still be decent for many of us.
  5. LVblizzard
    We need this thing to phase and deepen as early as possible with the kicker right on its heels. A more N-S ridge axis in the west would help too. Otherwise it grazes us and crushes the DMV area again.
  6. LVblizzard
    Right now the northern extent of precip is roughly from Muncie, IN to Dayton, OH to Parkersburg, WV looking at mPING reports. Closer to the HRRR than the NAM.
  7. LVblizzard
    Northern extent of precip ends up being similar but it’s quite a bit drier. While the LV/Poconos aren’t too different from 6z it cuts totals in half south of the turnpike.
  8. LVblizzard
    The Euro shows a MECS at day 7 and no one here is acknowledging it?
  9. LVblizzard
    GFS takes away next weekend’s storm. Euro brings it back. Another week of tracking ahead…
  10. LVblizzard
    Euro came north with the heavy stuff but for those of us on the northern fringes it was unchanged from 18z.
  11. LVblizzard
    My rough thoughts right now
  12. LVblizzard
    RGEM* the global version doesn’t come out for another 45 minutes.
  13. LVblizzard
    RGEM is still ridiculously south. I do remember it being the last model to come around in Jan. 2016 if that means anything…
  14. LVblizzard
    This map is essentially my current thoughts about how this will play out.
  15. LVblizzard
    Small tick south on both NAMs.
  16. LVblizzard
    Euro north a little as well. This is what I was expecting to happen since models usually overdo confluence. Now let’s see how far north we can go.
  17. LVblizzard
    21z RAP gets warning level snow almost to the Lehigh Valley. Not saying it’s right but it’s certainly interesting. Really looking forward to tonight’s 0z suite.
  18. LVblizzard
    I generally like to do that but the RGEM is a short range model despite not being super hi-res. So I feel like I can’t completely toss it like I am with the UKMET.
  19. LVblizzard
    Meanwhile the RGEM ticks south and screws over everyone north of the turnpike. I genuinely have no idea what to think at this point.
  20. LVblizzard
    NAM is essentially unchanged from 12z at the surface. 3km NAM, however, has jumped north, bringing warning level snow to Philly,
  21. LVblizzard
    Still snowing at this frame. We’d all be happy with this.
  22. LVblizzard
    18z HRRR looks decent for us. Moderate to heavy snow up to the Poconos on Monday morning.
  23. LVblizzard
    Call me crazy but I still think the Lehigh Valley gets an advisory level event while warning level snow approaches Philly. I’ve seen these types of storms come 50 miles north in the last day or two too many times before. It feels like a matter of when it’ll happen, not if.
  24. LVblizzard
    No surprises on the Euro. It holds.
  25. LVblizzard
    SREF mean went a little north again. Sign of things to come for the 0z suite?
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