Interesting how the snow went more north than expected (seeing reports of flakes north of Danbury, CT) but the heavy snow just did not want to reach SE PA at all. I can’t find a single report of over 2 inches in the entire Philly metro area.
I wish I could buy the GFS but I just don’t. It’s possible but we need everything to come together perfectly. While there’s a chance it’s not a very good one.
This thread is awfully dead for a snow event that will begin in about 5-6 hours. We may not be getting the big amounts like DC, but it’ll still be decent for many of us.
We need this thing to phase and deepen as early as possible with the kicker right on its heels. A more N-S ridge axis in the west would help too. Otherwise it grazes us and crushes the DMV area again.
Right now the northern extent of precip is roughly from Muncie, IN to Dayton, OH to Parkersburg, WV looking at mPING reports. Closer to the HRRR than the NAM.
Northern extent of precip ends up being similar but it’s quite a bit drier. While the LV/Poconos aren’t too different from 6z it cuts totals in half south of the turnpike.
21z RAP gets warning level snow almost to the Lehigh Valley. Not saying it’s right but it’s certainly interesting. Really looking forward to tonight’s 0z suite.
I generally like to do that but the RGEM is a short range model despite not being super hi-res. So I feel like I can’t completely toss it like I am with the UKMET.
Call me crazy but I still think the Lehigh Valley gets an advisory level event while warning level snow approaches Philly. I’ve seen these types of storms come 50 miles north in the last day or two too many times before. It feels like a matter of when it’ll happen, not if.