LVblizzard

CMC joins the west trend party. Apparently the GFS missed the memo tonight.

And the GFS says nah, I’ll go even farther east to spite the weenies. Lol

Anyone gonna make a thread for this storm? It seems likely that at the very least, the coast will get a snowstorm.

Well, the 12z NAM has suckered me back in…low is more tucked with more expansive precip. Big stripe of 2 feet+ from south Jersey to New England.

The GEFS had the storm a week and a half ago off the coast until like 2 days before. It ended up tracking straight through PA. This happens time and time again with its SE bias.

Last February’s storm was a textbook example of that. In Allentown it started snowing at around noon on Sunday, the heavy bands came all day Monday, and on Tuesday and Wednesday we picked up a few more inches as the low sat and spun to the east. The last flakes were at around 11 on Wednesday morning. That’s 71 hours from start to finish, and it was snowing for about 90% of that time frame. It’s easily up there with my favorite storms of all time, despite being stuck at work from Monday morning through Tuesday evening.

18z NAM ends just before it delivers a historic blizzard to the area. Damn what a good look.

This reminds me of tracking Juno exactly 7 years ago. The Euro was always the most amped and brought big snows to Philly and much of NJ, while the other models kept it a New England special. We all know how that one turned out…maybe the outcome can be different this time around.

Euro gives south Jersey over 3 feet (not exaggerating) on the weenie maps. 2 feet for Philly and NYC, and a foot plus towards the LV and Poconos. Would be an all-timer if it verified. Need to see other models join it, though…and the JMA doesn’t count.

Better hope the 12z CMC doesn’t verify. Gets sub-960 on the benchmark but says F you to anyone not on the coast.

Steady light snow at my work in Bath. Ground is covered. Looks like we have a few more hours to go based on radar. We could end up with over an inch.

NAM has been on this for a few runs now and the GFS just came around. Would be nice to keep some snowpack on the ground if the big one is going to happen this weekend.

If you want some eye candy check out the 18z Euro ensembles and control run. Either it'll score a big coup or bust very badly.

Over a foot for most of us. Would feel a lot better about this if the Euro wasn’t totally on its own.

12z mesos are coming in much snowier N&W of Philly. Might have to up the forecast to 2-4” or 3-5” for the Lehigh Valley.

The 0z NAM is pretty far southeast of its 18z run. The only problem? There's a huge warm tongue that torches everyone, even the Poconos! This is gonna be a nightmare to nail down over the next day or two...

We’ve hit a lull here with about an inch on the ground. Gonna be interesting to see what the coastal does here once it gets going. The HRRR is really bullish.

First flakes here in Lower Macungie. Expecting around 3 or 4 inches here.

This one is gonna be painful to watch from the Lehigh Valley. Really hoping Friday's storm turns out better here.

The 0z Euro has plowable snow for Philly on Monday. Light accumulations up to the Lehigh Valley. One more small jump north and suddenly this gets very interesting.

I can’t remember ever seeing a PDS tornado warning in this area. Just insane!

I live in an apartment which is halfway underground and it still feels nice and cool in there today with no AC. Not that I’d need AC on a day with dry heat like today anyway. A fan would probably do the trick.

Heavy snow in Allentown. Coating on everything already.

First flakes in Allentown. Driving to work in 3 hours for a 1 pm shift...should be fun!

I’ll be in Massachusetts (near Worcester) from Wednesday-Saturday so I’m betting on the storm shifting north and slamming New England since I have plans there on Thursday and Friday nights.