LVblizzard

The 0z models tonight are what I’m really interested in. I believe that will be the first run with full sampling.

Yeah this is exactly how a low should act when it encounters a strong arctic high…not plow into it like the UKMET does.

Also the fact that the WAA thump is quite intense and the majority of the precip is done by the time the warm nose arrives.

It doesn’t want to fully transfer the primary low at all. It just keeps going with it until it’s in upstate NY and pushes the high out of the way like it’s nothing. Not really buying that.

I’ve noticed that the Canadian rarely agrees with the consensus. It’s usually way north or way south. This seems like one of those times it’s too amped. Haven’t seen any solutions remotely resembling it.

The magic of a 1037 high in Quebec.

I would be absolutely shocked if the mix line makes it past Philly. Even mixing to Philly seems unlikely with the sheer amount of cold air we’re working with.

This is a true arctic airmass. I’m in Killington, VT currently. Wind chill got down to -20 on the mountain today. Not staying till the weekend but Saturday could get wind chills near -30. Just insane how cold it’s been, especially when you remember we’re technically still in a La Niña.

The 12z Euro only did a partial phase and still pulled off a MECS. The only thing we can’t have is those two pieces staying entirely separate. Literally any interaction and we get at least a SECS.

Probably more. It wasn’t done yet at the end of the run.

When the ensembles disagree with the OP that is a major red flag. OP is most likely out to lunch.

That has more to to with the TPV splitting and digging more west than the energy in the southwest.

That is a ridiculous amount of sleet for VA. Shoveling 1 inch is bad enough…7 inches would be torturous.

Overall a good 0z suite. Still a lot of work to do to iron out details. We probably won’t have a good handle on this until Thursday morning at the earliest.

I’ve seen this before. The models like to troll us like this. By Thursday they will all show entirely different solutions again.