LVblizzard

Meanwhile the NAM gets plain rain to Philly.

It’s the NAM/RRFS vs. every other meso. Very intrigued to see how this plays out. I reduced my final call for the Lehigh Valley to 8-14” and I’m very confident in that right now.

Ehhh we got them back in 2021. I think it’s even now.

I will not fall for the HRRR again I will not fall for the HRRR again I will not fall for the HRRR again I will not fall for the HRRR again I will not fall for the HRRR again I will not fall for the HRRR again

Hate to say it but it’s pretty useless to look at globals this close to the storm. Mesos and CAMs are more reliable at this range.

NAM and RRFS are on their own with the extreme mid level warm air surge. None of the other globals or mesos agree with pushing sleet to the Poconos.

Euro just came in with an absolute nuke.

That too…reflectivity is bright and CC shows a clear boundary from roughly Ada to McAlester. Still means the NAM was too warm which has me injecting some hopium.

Look at mPING as it relies on actual observations, not the colors on radar maps. It currently has sleet up to Ada, OK, right in line with the Euro and HRRR. It does appear the NAM was too warm at the mid levels, though, as it had sleet up to I-40 where it’s currently all snow.

It’s getting that sweet recon data. But the GFS is still the GFS. It’s more likely than not to let us down in the end. I’ve seen this movie too many times before.

That includes sleet. The WB maps show a disastrous outcome with sleet getting well north of I-80 and just 6” for the city.

RRFS gets the sleet line to Scranton. Meanwhile none of the other mesos (minus the NAM) get it past the Lehigh Valley. Quite the battle we have here.

Wow so basically no melting this week. Yeah this will stick around for awhile.

You’re like 15 miles south of me. How much is still left there? I’ve been away since Monday.

I’m literally 1/4 mile south of I-78. Good thing weather doesn’t follow interstate highways like that!