LVblizzard

At this point we want the GEFS to be a miss to the east. 9 times out of 10 the GFS and its ensembles are the last ones to catch on with a storm like this.

And here we go again! I’m not tired yet!!! (Although I’d like this to hold off till later Saturday evening since I have to drive back from State College that day.)

It’s about to come on board based on hour 108. Possibly in a big way.

All the other globals have it too but none of them tuck it in like the Euro. Gonna be more sleepless nights ahead looking at these models.

Uhhhhh…what the hell? I did not expect a day 6 HECS on any model tonight.

Ended up with about 11” in Allentown, very impressive given that we lost 7 hours of the storm to sleet.

Main precip is done, just some snizzle left now. Shoveling wasn’t that bad…it really helps that more than 2/3 of our accumulation was fluffy powder.

The HRRR has a warm bias at the surface but a cold bias in the mid levels. Sounds weird but that’s been something I’ve noticed with it over the years.

Mostly snow again for the first time in 3 hours - however looking at radar that pesky mix line is trying to push north again.

We’re in a battleground area here too but it’s about 80/20 sleet when snow does mix in.

Heavy sleet here, few flakes mixed in. The mix line is less than 10 miles north of me. Pain.

Same just to your southwest in Allentown. Feels like we’ll be right on or near the line all day.

Some flakes mixing back in here. Radar shows that line creeping back north again though. May not last long.

Changed to sleet in Allentown. Right on schedule with all the NAM runs from the past couple days. The line does appear to be crashing southeast in central PA…we’ll see if that makes it here and changes us back to snow at some point.

Never underestimate the mid level warm air push in these storms. Even the 2021 blizzard had the sleet line precariously close to the LV when no models showed that.