LVblizzard

And it did. Virtually no snow even for the Poconos. Amazing that we’re less than 24 hours out and there’s this much disagreement. This is the definition of a nowcast event.

0z HRRR has 6” in Allentown and 4” down to Philly. Not buying it though…I’ve seen this before where the HRRR severely underestimates mid-level warm air. The NAM is about to come out and I’m pretty confident it’ll show something entirely different.

If you buy how dry the NAMs are…I personally don’t. Sleet ratios are typically around 3:1 and I think we get at least an inch of pure sleet, along with up to an inch of snow.

Been awhile since we had a big sleet bomb…looks like that will be happening tomorrow night. Still doesn’t compare to V-Day 2007, the mother of all sleet storms.

It sucks running a page with 13k followers during a storm like this. You barely have a clue but the people demand numbers and you just have to do your best.

None of the other 0z mesos look remotely like that NAM run. I'm tossing the NAM at this point as it's such a big outlier.

Forecasting this is like blindly throwing darts at the models and hoping one will be right. It's such a weird setup and the models apparently don't know how to handle it. You can't really look at past storms as analogs with this either because it's so rare to get storms like this.

Just under an inch in Allentown. Nice ground whitener. Now on to Friday!

I don’t really trust globals on the snow/mix line. We’ll have to wait another day or two for the hi-res models to come into range. What does look certain is that this will be an all or mostly frozen event for most of us. WWA just issued for Lehigh/Northampton counties for this morning. NWS expects 1-2” around here.

It’s virga. 0z hi-res models are slightly more aggressive for tomorrow. HRRR has 1-3” around I-78. Hoping to wake up to steady snow in the morning.

GFS is really the only model showing a lot of snow for this area…most other guidance has a big mid-level warm nose and lots of IP/ZR. Trend has been our friend over the last day though, so we’ll see if that continues.

0z models are looking VERY interesting for Friday-Saturday. If that blocking trends just a little stronger some of us could be in for a pretty significant snow or ice storm.

Some small hail with that line in Allentown. Very rare for this time of year.

Kevin Patullo will need a shield surrounding him if the Eagles go 3 and out on their first drive.

Just had a nice little flurry/snow shower while shoveling and clearing off my car. I love when that happens. It’s like the ultimate cherry on top.