Memphis Weather

Likely the radar imagery from Portugal is what pushed this to classification. It would probably have been declared a STS in post season analysis had they not named it today.

This won't be Alpha either!

Regarding Onalaska....

SUMMARY...SUMMARY BASED ON RECENT RADAR AND ENVIRONMENTAL DATA, A STRONG TO INTENSE TORNADO WITH POTENTIAL PEAK WINDS OF 130 TO 165 MPH (EF2-EF3) IS LIKELY ONGOING. DISCUSSION...DISCUSSION RECENT RADAR SIGNATURES FROM KGRK AS OF 2250Z REVEAL AN INTENSE SUPERCELL CHARACTERIZED BY A 0.5 DEGREE ROTATIONAL VELOCITY OF AT LEAST 70 KT. A TORNADIC DEBRIS SIGNATURE HAS ALSO BEEN NOTED ON RECENT RADAR SCANS. THESE SIGNATURES ARE OCCURRING IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STP BETWEEN 5 AND 6. PREVIOUS SIGNATURES WITHIN SIMILAR ENVIRONMENTS PRODUCED TORNADO-DAMAGE-ESTIMATED WIND SPEEDS FROM 130 TO 165 MPH AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR A STRONG TO INTENSE TORNADO. A LONGER-TRACK TORNADO IS ONGOING AND MAY CONTINUE BASED ON THE ROTATIONAL VELOCITY DURATION AND THE STORM MOVING WITHIN A FAVORABLE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT.

Looks like that one has roped out at least for the moment

Violent motion on this one. Sub vortices evident.

News 9 Live stream

Tornado continues to get larger

Fairly large cone on News 9 now

This is still the lead cell

Anything less than full devastation in Soso or any of the other small communities that have already been hit would be a miracle. The debris fallout on Correlation Coefficient is unlike anything I've seen before....

Small TDS on that one NE of Godley

Ahh, that makes sense. Thanks for the info! I have to say...its the best NWS assessment I've seen. Great coverage of the societal aspect. I'm interested now to see what the eventual changes will be...how a "impact-based" system is implemented. At the least...as CT Rain says...appears the Tornado Emergency is going to become a separate product...but appears even bigger changes will eventually come.

Fastest turnaround I've ever seen for a NWS assessment...4/27 report isn't even out yet. Many big statements in this one. Quotes that the warning system (and outdoor sirens) "have lost a degree of credibility"...and proposes a framework for basically a new warning system all-together. Another major proposal...implementing a new 88D VCP that allows for one-minute 0.5* slices...

Thanks for some great clarification there! Seems that perhaps the 225-250 estimate is still valid then. Either way...no matter the exact speeds...its just a tragic and heartbreaking sight...and the stories of you...JoMo and others continue to be incredible. The fact remains as you say that this is the deadliest tornado of the modern era and that's the most important thing to remember in terms of historical perspective.

First off...I agree..."low-end" EF5 is not a good term to use...though I understand why it does get used. EF5 is EF5 by that point...but the implication is probably something between 200 and 210mph. My main question is...why did the Springfield WFO MIC go on-air for a live interview to a TV station and explicitly state that they estimate the strongest winds at 225-250mph if that either wasn't true...or they just didn't have enough confidence to go with such a number yet. I would not have been expecting an MIC especially to throw out a number like that unless they were pretty sure of it (even if it never appeared on official statements)...so I think that's why it got reported so much that day when the interview aired. Even TWC was quoting that interview several times. If it wasn't that strong...that doesn't bother me in the end...I do trust what all the teams have been doing on the ground there...which I can't imagine being tasked to do...but I would like to know how an MIC let that slip if it wasn't true or just wasn't credible to that point of the survey.

After being sidetracked for over a month with the historic flooding event and other severe weather...MEG has gotten around to building a much more extensive page for this outbreak... http://www.srh.noaa.gov/meg/?n=apr2011toroutbreakhome Included is a lot more detailed information about each tornado. In addition...their CWA-wide tornado count between April 25-27 has been raised from 14 to 21 (mostly just adding EF-0s). The 4/27 count itself is 16.

Wow! Add to that the latest SGF wind estimates above...we clearly have the strongest EF-5 of the modern scale era...and probably somewhere in the discussion among the strongest tornadoes ever thought to have occurred.

http://www.ky3.com/news/ky3-national-weather-service-insight-into-ef5-rating-for-joplin-tornado-20110527,0,7121986.story JOPLIN, Mo. -- The National Weather Service provided additional insight into the decision to rate the tornado last Sunday at the top of the Enhanced Fujita Scale. The tornado was given an initial rating of an EF-4 before it was upgraded the next day. Bill Davis with the National Weather Service said investigators look at structural damage and how far heavy objects were thrown. This tornado, for example, tossed concrete parking lot "bumpers" that sit low to the ground and can weigh up to 300 pounds. The NWS investigators also noted that tractor-trailers parked near the Wal-Mart store were thrown farther than 1/8th mile. Manhole covers were also lifted and tossed. The tornado's path is an estimated six miles long. It's from three-quarters of a mile to a mile wide at some points. The winds are estimated to have briefly hit between 225 and 250mph.

I'm very sure the NWS will do a service assessment for Joplin (they already have been conducting one for 4/27) and all of these issues being discussed will surely be raised. Typically it will be 6-12 months before their release...so it won't be until 2012 until we see it and perhaps later before any major changes are implemented...if any are recommended.

All excellent points. There are still areas where the science and awareness needs to improve...and hopefully such events that we've unfortunately seen multiple times this year will help that out. BTW...as if they need it...a pretty strong storm about to move into Joplin. Not severe...but does likely have some small hail and strong wind gusts.

I agree that there IS an issue with SGF TORs...I've thought/said that myself for years...but just not the appropriate moment to bring it up and I doubt there's a direct correlation between the number killed and how many Tornado Warnings were issued but non-verified in Joplin the last two years or whatever. The tragic fact is that many if not most that died...may not have survived no matter what they did...how much time they had...or how seriously they took any warning.

JoMo...I'm very glad to hear you are safe. Your story is incredible and I personally can't imagine having to endure what you have in the last several days. You and the entire community of Joplin remains in my thoughts and prayers. Speaking of the SGF TOR issue (and their high FAR)...leave it to Accuweather to try and distastefully exploit this since its an opportunity to discredit the NWS. They apparently sent this email yesterday to partners and clients (excerpt pasted below)...

Smithville, MS tornado has been upgraded to EF5 by MEG WFO...see assessment thread for more...