nwohweather

I’m overly bullish on today. Maybe I’ll get egg on my face but around 1-3 today it’s showing solid instability and helicity levels of 200-400 on top of the storms that spark up. 67° in Charleston at the moment

This wasn’t a bust. Not legendary so probably didn’t deserve a high risk, but absolutely lived up to a Moderate risk type event. It’s like forecasting 12” of snow and getting 8”. Sure the foot would’ve been cool but it’s still a lot of snow. I will continue beating the drum that I think tomorrow could wind up being worse. I noticed backing in the hodographs and a possibility of left movers tomorrow definitely increasing the large hail threat. Truthfully it’ll be a perfect day to camp out around Orangeburg and hop on 95 or 26 to chase. I’d be shocked honestly if there is not a violent tornado in SC tomorrow

The bust talk is a bit extreme, although I’m shocked Mississippi didn’t get a little more as the main show today has definitely been Alabama. Atmosphere is too worked over at the moment across the Mid South for this to really take off tonight in my opinion. Still it’s been one hell of an afternoon. And truthfully I think tomorrow in the Carolina’s offers a potentially bigger threat than today to be honest

This could be big dog of the day. Cell has little around it compared to other ones

Man I was just in Birmingham/Fairfield for a business trip. That tornado is going to go through some solidly populated areas

Tomorrow looks very interesting, especially if these storms today put a nice boundary down in the morning. Wedge has lifted in Charleston, sunny and 70 now. Looks like a solid two day outbreak here folks

I feel like I'm watching ESPN debating MJ vs Lebron for the 1,000,000th time seeing all the comparisons to April 27 on here. That being said, surface based CAPE across the region at the moment is insane for 11:30 AM. This atmosphere is so ripe, looks like a classic multi-round tornado event today.

I'd like to see a stronger low for sure to be in all in but with the ingredients in place, you've gotta go High for today. The LCL is basically on the ground, a strengthening LLJ throughout the day, as much as 3000 j/kg of CAPE, tons of moisture yet great lapse rates, extremely high SRH and ample shear. It's hard to think this evening that everything won't be spinning in the mid South

Comparisons to the infamous Carolina Outbreak are interesting for sure. Comparing anything to April 27th is a bit of a reach because the LLJ was absurd during the midday hours leading to some of the largest helicity numbers I've ever seen before, heck it was visually obvious with condensation still spinning off the funnel on many of the tornadoes. Also this low looks to deepen to 995-997 MB while that day had a 980 MB monster low which is why you saw not only great supercell development, but LP supercells compared to what is usually seen in the South. One thing to keep in mind is that tomorrow's outbreak could transform into multiple lines and put down a nice boundary for a Carolina event on Thursday.

Orangeburg would not be a bad place at all to sit out and watch this thing.

I think one thing this thread doesn't touch on enough is the regionality of the way we think about health in this country. I touched on this last year after my move, but it was shocking going from an Ann Arbor office to Charleston the difference in health measures. Almost all of my coworkers in Michigan were in some sort of fitness regimen (crossfit, pilates, long distance running, biking, etc.), salad bar with tons of options & wipes at the desk to help cut down on germs during flu season. I move here and absolutely no one is in any of those things, they eat fried chicken & BBQ regularly, and almost everyone dips. They're professional and college educated, but it's obvious health is not a priority except among young people who want to keep their beach body. It's hard to pass those kinds of public safety measures and expect widespread vaccine use when health just isn't the priority you see in other areas of the country.

Next two days have all the makings of a significant outbreak. Serious speed shear, great lapse rates, low LCL and solid instability in this moist air mass is going to help storms have enough spin not to get messy convectively in my opinion. Wouldn’t be shocked to see a few long trackers through MS/AL. The QLCS threat is interesting tomorrow night as well with the jet strengthening in the overnight hours to offset the loss of heating. Will probably see some off the charts EHI’s tomorrow night. Thursday seems complicated with this dang wedge front just lingering, could limit the northern extent of the outbreak a bit east of the mountains. Regardless, Thursday has the ability to be potent, especially into SC/GA. May go out and chase that day but also have a new truck so no hail haha. I want to say kudos to the SPC for going Moderate here and maybe High. Whenever there is a solid threat of long track tornadoes you have to make that call. Atmospheric profiles are far too good for a couple wedges and that’s going to be the real danger

Highly highly recommend Xyzal. I switched to it last year and it has been a lifesaver

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Right? Apparently it’s where Sweet Tea was invented too

I mean then what’s the point of any warnings or advisories other than for tornadoes? 3-6” of snow is simply going to be forecasted with a bulletin? What about for dense fog?

Ha I tell people this all the time, we basically have Jacksonville weather. If you look at the climate data they're super similar. Only about a 3-5 degree difference October thru April

Looking at the models it looks like Spring is safely here

Only thing complaining here are the sinuses & lungs (mild Asthma) I will say though in a weather related comment, over the Holidays I traveled home to Ohio to spend time with the immediate family as my work is remote. It is staggering how rough the winter cold & air is on your body compared to living in Charleston. Was just ripping through the lotion & chapstick, & drinking hot tea throughout the day as my sinuses felt so so bad. It's noticeable how much healthier I feel living in this region

Man a dewpoint of 69° in February is insane

Well folks the pollen has returned. Truck was covered in dust this morning

What a wonderful stretch of weather! Got a solid sun tan out by the pool today. Let’s hope we send the cold air packing and get severe weather season rolling

Deborah Birx’s interview on Face the Nation was very illuminating. She said she knew this would be hell because from her experience in Africa, “Pandemics are always political”. Highly recommend watching this on YouTube.

Interesting to see this as my Grandmother who was a museum curator for decades had a comment on this with the exact opposite thoughts. When the pandemic faded 100 years ago almost overnight people quit wearing masks. When the Civil War ended many photos were destroyed as people simply wanted to forget what happened and get back to normal (this is what made her job quite difficult in finding these documents/slides). The general public has an amazing ability to forget tragedy, and I'd expect this will be the same. Even now we cheer the fact that new hospitalizations is only at 52,000 a day, still a stunning number. Even with masks, I'd say it was not until July that it became completely prevalent throughout the United States. I remember going to the grocery store in May last year and receiving comments for wearing one in line with maybe only 30% of customers actually wearing one. I'm interested to see what happens with all this going forward. From a societal perspective I'd say this is easily the most turbulent time since 2001-2002

I miss sports so much. I’ll wear a Hazmat suit if I have to