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paweather

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    Central PA Winter 2022/2023

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    Sounds familiar in our worst winters 2020:

    ⚠️ SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN REGARDING CHRISTMAS EVE - PLEASE READ STATEMENT IN ITS ENTIRETY AND METICULOUSLY:

    A powerful cold front on the lead of a very deep/cold trough will arrive during the evening on Thursday. This is NOT your typical cold front passage, and it will be both impactful and disruptive. First, this is NOT a snow event. Although snowflakes may mix at the tail end of precipitation in a few far NW/interior areas, the vast majority of it is a very mild RAIN. A low level jet at 700mb (approx. 10,000 feet AGL) will co-align itself parallel the incoming front/trough, increasing wind potential down to the surface.

    APPROXIMATE TIMING: Rain showers arrive during the afternoon Thursday W-E, and becomes increasingly heavy during the evening. A potent thunderstorm squall line (with some lightning possible) traverses our region W-E from about 9pm-3am Thursday evening/early Friday AM. Once the squall line moves through, precipitation abruptly ends in the pre-dawn hours, and wind subsides significantly. A few flurries may linger on Christmas Day.

    IMPACTS:

    1) Heavy rain for most between 1.0-1.5" with higher amounts in areas of elevation exceeding 2.0" with added lift, combined with rapid snow melt will lead to flooding concerns Thursday PM/overnight.

    2) Unusually high wind gusts picking up to 30-40mph+ mid to late afternoon Thursday, then increasing to 40-50mph+ during the evening. With the aforementioned squall line as it moves through W-E approximately 9pm-3am, 50-60mph+ gusts are likely with over 60mph peak gusts most likely to occur in far Eastern PA, Delaware and all of New Jersey. There is a HIGH concern for widespread power outages across the region Thursday evening/night unfortunately.

    3) As the squall line passes and the front clears late Thursday night, a rapid temperature crash is expected from the mid to upper 50s prior to the front to below freezing in just a few hours time. Temperatures will continue to fall throughout the day on Christmas Day. This will lead to a FLASH FREEZE and all wet surfaces will become ice, including roadways, sidewalks, and all exposed surfaces.

    Given the very poor and worst possible timing of the holiday, increased attention and emphasis is placed on this particular event. Please have a plan in place to adapt to changing conditions with flooding, high winds/increased power outage potential, and the flash freeze that follows.

    Forecaster: Martrich 22DEC1500z

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