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paweather

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    Central PA Winter 23/24

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    CTP: 

    The operational GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models continue to
show a similar story - isentropic ascent ahead of the storm
system moving into the region by Saturday morning and becoming
most vigorous by Sat afternoon into early Sat evening. By 00z
Sunday, the dominant forcing transitions from isentropic ascent
to fgen banding on the back side of the low, within a paired
right entrance / left exit region of the upper jet. This
scenario would result in several inches of snow across central
PA. However, it is worth noting that there are still some
ensemble members that keep most of the precip to the east,
resulting in little to no snow accumulation for central PA. The
range of possibilities shown by the NBM 10th and 90th
percentiles ranges from a coating to 1 inch in the best case to
over 1 foot of snow in some spots in the worst case scenario.

There will be a period of dry weather later Sunday through
Monday night before the next storm system approaches late Monday
night. This storm looks to be stronger than the weekend storm,
but also has the potential to track to our west, ultimately
putting is in the warm sector after a period of cold air
damming. In that case, there could be a several hour period of
snow before a mix with and changeover to rain. However, it is
much too early for details, as there is plenty of time for the
track of this system to change. The presence of cold air ahead
of this system will also depend and how much snowpack is left
behind from the weekend storm.

    Central PA Winter 23/24

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

    I have to do something to counteract the silly comments I get about not using guidance past a certain hour....this after watching the big boys flip and flop today. 

    Lots of flip and flops today but that is all the time. I am still liking the chances of a quick 4-8" type storm. Power El Nino like. :snowman:

    • Like 1

    Central PA Winter 23/24

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

    NAM AT RANGE WARNING----NAM AT RANGE WARNING

     

    At 84 hours the SLP is on the cusp of the Gulf near New Orleans in a very similar position as the 12Z CMC.    The approaching High is displaced a bit East vs, the CMC.  Looking at 500H it is going to go North East in some manner but would be guess work to suggest how. 

    NAM at range warning. You serious? LOL. 

    Central PA Winter 23/24

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

    To further on the 12z Euro EPS 

    3”+ probs

    image.thumb.png.be8eaeb15f01fea21e96d5914c412c60.png

     

    6+ probs

    Maybe

    Edit to note that the 12”+ probs are completely non-existent (no ensemble member showing 12+), so the ensemble overall has definitely picked up on the faster motion of this storm. 

    Maybe more like a 3-6 4-8 storm for us. Outside of this one model run. 18z up in the next couple of hours. 

    Central PA Winter 23/24

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

    Thanks! It feels great to be back on the east coast and I get to actually track something for my back yard again ^_^

    I think the trends right now are positive for the LSV and south-central PA area. I would imagine the favorable spots along the Mason Dixon up to the turnpike are in a good area for the time being. Too early to talk totals, but the key will be the storm not going too far south and the confluence to the north doesn’t thwart latitude gain. Analogs right now are pretty solid for the region, so I like where you guys sit at this point. I’ll come by and add some insight as we approach. Perhaps a snow map is in order!! Been awhile since I did one for the subforum. 

    Let’s see one 

    Central PA Winter 23/24

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

    I am all about snow cover. Normally, I would prefer 4" of snow that lasted 2 weeks than 12" of snow that was gone in 3-5 days.

    These aren't normal times. I haven't shoveled in 2 years. If we get 6-12" of snow that is completely washed away a few days later, so be it. I'll be thrilled to put up a big crooked number. 

    Exactly!

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