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paweather

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    Central PA Winter 23/24

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

    First off, hello! Just joined the forums.  Was AccuChris on old Accuweather forums, am AccuChris on WxDisco forums which presently is down for upgrades, so I needed my meteo disco hunger fed so here we are. 12z GFS total run Kuchera snow map below. Tons of potential next 2 weeks but we dont shovel potential.  Still very impressive overall and lots to track

    IMG_3975.png

    Welcome from Lebanon!

    • Thanks 1

    Central PA Winter 23/24

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

    Despite the area's first real winter threat of the season, CTP is already sounding the horn for next week: (and a warning to @canderson to go on high alert:) 

    .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
03/00Z update...winter storm system for next Tue/Wed is fcst to
be much stronger and track farther to the west - which puts
mixed precip (snow-ice to rain transition) squarely in play.
The other key impact with this storm will be strong winds with
MSLP anomalies (sub 990mb) reaching 3-4SD below the mean.

    I'll take a good front end dump and see it wash. 

    Central PA Winter 23/24

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

    Yea, I think it's a concern as modeled.  Let's assume the Canadian's are right and much of PA gets 10-15" of snow....the next two days the temps are near or below normal all day then more snow comes followed by 2-3" of rain.  Could have some roof issues as well as streets not being able to move water away fast enough. 

    I'm just glad we will be white this weekend. Whatever happens next week let it happen. Except for house damage. :D But at least white for a few days. 

    • Like 1

    Central PA Winter 23/24

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

    It is uncanny how up and down the tracking has been on this one.  It seems every 12 hours we have one suite threatening a little snow/a sunny day on Saturday and another driving a low too far north.  Goes to show how hard trying to put a forecast out is...the interactions are too complicated to pin down.

    Blizz shared the EURO it only goes out to 90 after that it dumps. 

    Central PA Winter 23/24

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

    Could be a couple of things. I won’t put words in anyone’s mouth but here’s my objective thoughts on some of the cons of this setup.

    Precip issues are still possible in the southern tier even with these lower QPF/progressive solutions depending on the thermals.. something we won’t have a firm handle of till we’re in range of the high res guidance. I do think we’ll see mostly snow in here from this, but the possibility of some mixing in the southern tier still exists. We’ve changed the pattern around to where it’s cold enough and we have a high available for this system, but it’s still not significantly cold here.. just cold that’s average. 

    The 500mb pattern out west  is not typically what you would see for a C-PA snowstorm. We’re always looking for the big western ridge and associated amplification to run a coastal storm all the way up the coast and we have the complete opposite with the -PNA setting up and a big western trough. What makes this work is having some downstream blocking and 50/50 low allowing this shortwave that kicks out from the southwest go underneath us. What’s being pointed out by some is these weaker solutions late today along with being faster come from more energy dumping into the southwestern trough (which eventually becomes our next headache next week)  making for a weaker shortwave (that becomes our weekend storm) that kicks out. That kind of evolution takes away the top end potential. This is still probably a half decent event but not a blockbuster 1-2 foot type thing. More of 4-8” kind of event is what I’m thinking right now for the swath of heaviest snow… which I think about anyone in here would be happy with. 

    Makes sense thanks Mag

    Central PA Winter 23/24

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

    I hope you are joking.  LOL.  

    Check out this compare from 12 to 18Z.  12 has a dying primary/ULL in Ohio.  18 has little precip in far SW PA because there was little prescence in the Oh Valley.  Weaker and faster low. 

     

    image.png.b16244a9fc8654b87d2e2d2153eb0a08.png

     

     

    image.thumb.png.a4f46dae16b2bc959400a9fbccd866d4.png

     

    All in all the kuch range for my area has not changed that much.

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