Jump to content

paweather

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    11,418

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by paweather

    Central PA Winter 23/24

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    21 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

    From JB this morning: The clipper could still bomb out near the coast Friday night, but it looks like a large area of 20:1 ratio snows from the northern Plains to the M-Atlantic. It is going to be followed by the coldest weather of the winter for the East, but not the Plains, as they will start to warm

    JB and DT both are in the 4-6, 4-8" side of us. 

    • Like 1

    Central PA Winter 23/24

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Central PA Winter 23/24

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    CTP: 

    Biggest challenge with the forecast today is the digging trough
pressing down from the Upper Great Lakes Thursday night and Friday.
The forecast is very consistent from run to run, and gives high
confidence in a widespread (plowable) snowfall for the entire area.
Did bump PoPs to 100s and SF numbers up just a little based on an
upward trend in the SLRs and ensemble member trends. Even though it
will be falling during the daylight hrs, it is a cold airmass and
dewpoints start out pretty low. The SLRs should be higher than climo
(12-14:1) and may be closer to 20:1 in the NW third of the area.

We`re about 70% confident in the eventual need for an advy for
almost all, if not all, of the CWA for late Thursday night and
Friday. The place with the potential for the highest snowfall totals
is going to be the Laurels, especially when lumping the snow which
will occur after the main slug of forcing and broadest area of snow
passes and upslope snow kicks in Fri night. Therefore, we`ve posted
a winter storm watch for the Laurels for that time frame.

However, we`d like to avoid some confusion and allow confidence to
get to 80% before posting an advisory for the bulk of the area for
Friday. The confusion may come for those who are going to get some
snow later tonight (Wed PM) into Thurs. The certainty in SF numbers
is lowest in the Ridge and Valley region (between UNV-MDT-IPT).
Another shift or so with similar numbers should help boost
confidence.

With plenty of clouds around Thurs night and Fri, we`ll likely see a
decreased diurnal swing. Mins in the 15-25F range are good, and
everyone should hold in the 20s on Friday. One or two spots in the
SErn valleys could get over 30F
×
×
  • Create New...