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paweather

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    Central PA - Winter 2018-19

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

    I had a NOAA weather radio. Every day in the winter after school, I could not wait until they updated the forecast in the late afternoon. The best times took place when the alerts for a “Winter Storm Warning” were broadcast. I would listen to it over & over !

    In the 80’s & 90’s,in the days before the internet, all that we had for weather news was the weather radio, local TV weather, The Weather Channel & Weather World on PBS. I would try to flip around during the 6pm or 11pm TV news to catch every forecast possible during winter!

     

    The best was Weather World every weekday! I couldn't wait to get home from school to watch.  Fred Gadomoski (sp) and Paul Knight. 

    • Like 1

    Central PA - Winter 2018-19

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

    I know there was fair amount of commentary in our previous thread right before the new one got made about the general snowless..ness we've had this month, especially in the LSV where snowfall has been basically zero. A snowless or near snowless December is certainly not something us winter weather fans want to see, but it's hardly unprecedented in the LSV. CTP had some stats in their disco this morning, which I've been trying to find. 

    Per CTP, also included their input on the yearly rainfall bc that is something that has definitely been unprecedented. 

    
.CLIMATE...
Yearly Precipitation Record Watch...

Station  Precip in 2018   Rank   Record, year
-------  --------------   ----   ------------
KIPT       68.74           2     70.26, 2011
KMDT       64.96           2     73.73, 2011
KAOO       54.62           2     57.32, 1972
KBFD       47.44           20    60.65, 1992
KJST       60.15           1*    60.58, 1927**
* Record value for the airport
** Record for all historical reporting stations in Johnstown

0.5" to a little >1" rainfall is forecast for Thurs night and
Fri.

Johnstown is almost certain to eclipse that 60.58 and set their
record wet year.

This could (but probably won`t) push KIPT over their record.
They just need 1.52" to set the record. Current forecast precip
total for Thurs night-Fri wouldn`t put them over. But, it could
be close.

The other sites probably won`t get to their respective records.
Harrisburg needs to add about 9" to get there.

So far...ZERO snowfall for Dec for KMDT. There have been 12
Decemebers with a Trace or No snowfall in Harrisburg. The last
snow-less Dec was 2015. (Any flurries count as a Trace of snow.)

Just a Trace of snow has fallen this Dec at KIPT. Williamsport
has had 9 Decembers with a Trace or No snowfall - last was also
in 2015.

    I'm not sure how far MDT's obs go back. Weather Underground's historical for MDT goes back to 1935, which would make for approx a 14% rate for T or less Decembers at that station if that's how far back it goes. At any rate it's happened before, several times. The thing about this winter is we are still running average to above average to date because of November. Sometimes that's the disadvantage of getting an established winter-like pattern early. November was a quite a wintry month, especially the 2nd half of the month. The pattern this month simply has not been as favorable, especially with storm tracks. Mother nature doesn't much care about month to month snowfall averages. We could have gotten that big snowstorm on November 30 and we'd still technically have a deficit for December. 

    Looking at the pattern going forward, my personal opinion is we got to get the MJO out of phases 5-6 and in the meantime we will continue to have trouble with cutting storms..even phase 7 too. The GFS, GEFS has especially been forecasting very high amplitude to the MJO pulse running through 5-6 . We've been running an active southern stream so far this winter (Nino type winter) so I think the tropical forcing that makes the MJO tick is having a heavier influence, esp in the absence of much of a really dominant feature in the traditional teleconnections (for example dominating Pac ridge or trough, established blocking via -NAO, etc). I thought the storm following tomorrows cutter would be one to watch for a potential swath of wintry precip but models have since started to zero on another cutting storm bringing mostly rain near New Years, which I believe is the tendancy for SE ridging in MJO 5-6 rearing it's ugly head. None of this really worries me too much right now in the long run, but we look pretty unfavorable for snows heading into the first week of January right now.

    Speaking of teleconnections, the particular NOAA site that monitors the EPO and WPO is currently not available because of well.. DC being DC. The MJO forecasts are still available though HERE.

    That November snowstorm turned out to a tease for us. :-) GFS looked blah today. I remember back forget the year LSV had that Halloween snowstorm and then I believe it was lousy winter. I am wondering if the same thing happens this year. 

    Central PA Fall 2018

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    24 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

    Well the Accuweather long range forecast, from 3 weeks ago, calling for winter to hold off until Late January is looking better and better by the day.  

    I'll say that is for sure. I hope the November snow was not a tease for us right now. Boring and nothing looks good at this point with where things are headed. 

    Central PA Fall 2018

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    4 hours ago, canderson said:

    12z models were a bad run for anyone north of Virginia, esp the Euro. Yikes.. Gonna be wild to see Roanoke get 14” snow in December and us get cirrus lol.

    Days to go but with the steadysouh consensus it’s not looking good.

    Agreed. This is suppression unless a surprise happens that High will not budge. Richmond is getting snow in early December you know if that happens this is likely going to be a good year. And it is only December 5th. 

    Central PA Fall 2018

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

    CMC looked decent as well.  Gonna be a long week for sure as this one looks to be a formidable early season event for the lucky ones in the bullseye.  Seeing the GFS camp head so far south is concerning, but having the King/CMC on our side is not bad at this juncture.

     

    LOL King/CMC. Lots of different solutions right now. Plenty of time, long week ahead. If we miss this one, the positive is we are early into the season. 

    Central PA Fall 2018

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

    And the Euro is well south if the GFS  and gives DC and south a beatdown.  Fv3 was decent (although I didn’t look hard as I was doing brakes and rotors in wives SUV.). Point is a notable storm continues to look more likely. All we can hope for at this juncture. 

    No doubt Blizz and PA signal is well there. We want a strong high up to our north just not too strong ;-)

    but the setup looks good. 

     

    Central PA Fall 2018

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    On 11/30/2018 at 1:25 PM, pasnownut said:

    Watch the rest of the GFS run.  That storm track would absolutely crush most of this subforum.  HP is big and is there, and likely would be undermodeled for CAD signal if it is at 1041mb.  Yes moves unfavorably (not sure i buy that move) to more of an easterly fetch, but at 700 we are fine, and only lower levels are in trouble.  500 evolution is not a great look, but plenty of time for this to change. 

    FWIW GEFS looks notably different (better) at 500 so, i'd hang my little hat on it for now...

    However the outcome, this looks like one to watch.

     

    Agreed GFS now goes snow to rain for us but an improvement. Long ways away. :) let’s hope the trends go favorable next week. 

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