paweather

Well I was sucked in, didn't think I would stay up for the EURO. Anyone here have PBP and again thank you DAXX for last night being on vacation. If not I will go to NYC forum who is still talking about Hurricane Sandy :-)  

Just now, paweather5 said:

Beautiful!

16 degrees in in Harrisburg as the high Monday. Come on Artic press down prior a bit don't let the southern stream take everything. 

1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

I think if the low does just that and doesn't press into PA or get really close to the mason dixon line that things will eventually work out for the majority of the forum in favor of mostly the frozen stuff. We don't really have a mixed bag of guidance with some models cutting west or through PA vs going south. We're getting down to resolving the details of p-type, which of course is always the hard part with these types of systems. 

You and bubbler have called it phased versus a low riding the underneath and to the south of PA. This is quite interesting. Model camps are all over place. Forget the NAM right now. Last night's 0z GFS told me that the HP in Canada will be strong and that is the key IMO. Great guys. Plenty on the table. More importantly snow will be flying tomorrow night and then again on Saturday just how long Saturday for us in LSV. Good trends again. 

Just now, bubbler86 said:

Thanks for that.  More good news.  Big picture things are trending toward that LP staying south of us. 

Sure. I feel like this is still a good first part thump, ice/rain/ then backend snow that will be in 8-12" range. OK sissy not staying up for you, be good to your brother. 

Just now, paweather5 said:

Thanks for posting. 

It goes south of PA off the Delmarva. :-) Just some added mixture into this recipe. 12" plus. 

Verified UKMET is a crush for everyone north of 40N

UKIE from another forum looks good. I don't have maps yet. 

Just now, daxx said:

It's fun to look at the nam but it is borderline silly to even take it serious for the Saturday storm.

Exactly. 

CTP pretty darn bullish. I like where we are. Not staying up for the EURO so hopefully GFS can bring me some good dreams tonight. 

7 minutes ago, canderson said:

First of all, we all owe @daxx a huge amount of gratitude for his PBP. No drama, just pure data analysis. This thread is the best on this board for a reason. 

Now, I was as pessimist as anyone yesterday but if we can keep the south trend up today and Thursday night's event grows weaker and weaker ... then I'll get excited. 

Thanks again Daxx. 

Just now, CarlislePaWx said:

Well, now I have to "try" to go to bed and lay there waiting for my meds to overcome all this excitement.  What a day this was.  Hopefully tomorrow is not the same rollercoaster.  It will be very interesting to hear Horst's interpretation after declaring a major rainstorm (for Lanco vicinity) was coming.  I'm not ratting on him.  Just curious to see how much of a believer he is in tonight's new data.

See you all in the morning.  Thanks again, daxx!

Daxx Thank you! Yes, I am too. Thanks everyone we will let the morning crew clean this up with 6z runs :-) . But Daxx I appreciate the PBP. 

1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said:

He wasn't correcting you.  He was correcting superstorm's 1055.  Gotta admit when I saw that I thought a 1055 would crush a storm and send it down to Florida.

 

sure. yep. 

Well we have a decent trend tonight more to come tomorrow. Thanks so much Daxx again. I had a chance to stay up and it was worth it. Here is to a good weekend for all of us. 

Just now, yoda said:

True, but 1055mb would have crushed the system to oblivion lol.  Good luck up there... hope you all get some good snow this weekend

Thanks man, and exactly true. I appreciate the well wishes. Glad you guys enjoyed last weekend. still long ways away. Glad you post in here as you can. 

8 minutes ago, yoda said:

Its 1035 not 1055 lol

Thanks Yoda join the club. 1039-1055 it is all the same. The High is the key in my mind I saw it on the GFS at 84 and knew it would help us tonight. Sorry I misquoted. 

Just now, daxx said:

Biggest takeaway is a nice front end thump.  North and west of Harrisburg does great.

No doubt front end dump does well and even back side. But the main takeaway for tonight was the trend of no major rainstorm snow to ice, rain, back to snow. 

Just now, Superstorm said:

.

That is insane keep it there at least for a good portion. 

Just now, CarlislePaWx said:

Over us or just somewhere in the US?

Canada. The stronger the HP the more suppress it will be I caught that on the 84hr GFS and knew it would be better. 

Just now, CarlislePaWx said:

Haha...identical mindsets it would seem.

you got it. This just shows you how tricky these patterns are. whatever cereal you were having gave good luck :-) 

Just now, Superstorm said:

1055 HP, wow!!


.

yep GFS was 1039

GFS at 84 had my attention and didn't lose it and EURO continued that pattern it seems. 

Just now, daxx said:

This close to snow then ice scenario 

I love it. Better than a flooding a rainstorm. Great stuff Daxx. Trends tonight were very good. 

Just now, daxx said:

He 102 to 105 850 above lsv. Surface is much colder

so we flip to sleet/FRZ for a period of time that was writing on the wall but the initial snow thump is on all models.