paweather

It is stalled. My goodness. 

Just now, pasnownut said:

INCOMING at 120.  Better cad showing up.  May be a forum wide winner.

 

Yep crawling up the coast. 

Just now, Atomixwx said:

Looks like it's cutting from that picture lol

No way. That 1034 H to the North and the L they are loving each other. 

Just a pretty look:

996 L In Missouri at 78. 

Well time for the EURO in a little over an hour. 

Just now, anotherman said:

Agree, but what's up with that profile pic?  

Sorry need to change it. LOL.

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Yep. And it's really close to Lanco. But, it's several days out and will likely (hopefully) shift. 

Let's get a good thump with the Primary and then we can worry about the Dry Slot. I do like the CMC though. 

Just now, pasnownut said:

Dont get me wrong, I'm not complaining whatsoever, but merely pointing out things to watch.  I'd absolutely take what the GFS is serving....even if I only get 4", but its hard to swallow when true central gets another 8-12"

Yeah I know your not complaining. I was just happy to see the backend snow on this model for now and duration of the event.

From 1am Sunday to 1am Tuesday it is still snowing albeit some mix in there down in the LSV. 

Just now, pasnownut said:

and secondary pops east.  Not worrying yet, but hoping ens guidance is south and west for primary and secondary, or LSV wont approve.  Mag to NEPA will

We still get crushed with backend snow on the GFS. 

The Primary on the GFS just won't die. 

This has to bring the goods:

That 1033 H helps. 

Just now, pasnownut said:

500's showing a little less ridging at 72.  Too early to see if it helps.  

78 GFS seems to be further south. 

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

verbatim.....we taint.

Early panels showed a more norther solution in midwest.  Keep both eyes on that.  Primary needs to die a timely death or just not be too strong so that we get overrunning and not cooked thermals while waiting for coastal to pop 

Yep. GFS might be following suit. 

ICON not a bad start. But could be close to a changeover in the LSV. 

Let's get 12z rolling!

I should add, I do like the long duration of this storm if the transfer is somewhat clean. 

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

I think it fair to say that there is enough consensus that we have a storm coming.  

Current goalposts are as follows

left post - primary hangs on too long-wrecks thermals, delayed transfer to coast, sloppy transfer to coast-think miller b jip zone

right post - coastal tucks inland and SE Pa sees mixing issues, coastal pops too late and its congrats NJ, coastal too far ots and pulls best snows too far east

Current feeling is that we are sitting pretty here in central and eastern Pa.  (if one blends EPS and GFS).  While enough big hits are showing up, I'd still think a 4-8" deal is rather likely, and there is enough wiggle room remaining to keep that in play, unless we start seeing something trend away from what most models are showing.  its not like we are pulling for 1 model, as they all have something decent to offer.

Good right up and agree. I think this is going to be a game time solution. Miller B's always seem to put the models back and forth with their final solution and evolution. 

6 minutes ago, canderson said:

So what do we need to look for to lose this storm? 

It is all about the transfer. Primary will give us snow but the transfer is key to bigger amounts. MECS. HECS, BECS etc.

We knew if the ICON showed it others would follow. 

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

BTW, verbatim the Euro shows the LSV snowing basically from 144- 178 (spitballing 6hr panels).  

Even if that only amounts to a shovelable snowfall.....I'm down w/ that.  

Me too and this far out I like it. 

Just now, CarlislePaWx said:

Prior snow map was the control.  Here's the mean:

That's awesome.