paweather

Now we are headed into dry weather for a while it looks like but with no heat either so pros and cons. 

Edit: Maybe some showers today as I review models but like last week don't trust anything they say right now. 

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Bubbler86 interesting points. But I know when most of us in the Mid forum post about anything day 7+ it’s meant as an analytical discussion of pattern possibilities not a forecast. I don’t think issuing a forecast for specific weather past day 7, even day 6-7 is a stretch honestly, is a good idea.  I know some people take that probability and pattern recognition analysis and run with it as a forecast but whatever.  Furthermore, the reason we do that is usually because there isn’t much going on in the day 1-6 range. Especially lately. You can always tell we’re having our typical crap years when the majority of posts are analyzing day 14 ensemble trends and MJO plots. I would much rather be analyzing vorticity, moisture convergence, and VVs to try to predict meso scale banding features that picking apart day 10-15 ensemble progs. Unfortunately there haven’t been a while lot of legit threats to make it into range to do that recently so reading the super long range tea leaves is all we have.  Last year I said I thought winter was going to be a total dud in late December and made a long analytical post explaining why. But I said I would continue to track just in case either I was wrong or we lucked into a fluke somewhere. But a post on some possible glimmer of “hope” at day 10-15 should not be confused as a prediction for a snowstorm!  

Good to see you on here! 

So much for the Sunday rain 

So Glad this is not winter time:

39 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

wow.  thats a shame.  Good dude.

Always liked him here and on WGAL. Dang it. 

12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

No doubt.  The safest best right now would be to say basically no rain for anyone.  Fingers crossed its not that bad though. 

Agreed. If I could have gone back to the NWS on Monday and their forecast for the week it looked like a sure chance for rain everyday. And I have gotten little. 

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Not a lot of people but some in S Central and moving over toward S/E in Adams but the trend was definitely less than 6 Z.

 

 

K seems like everything this week into the weekend keeps pushing the moisture south and east. 

26 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Nam might still show that but it definitively lessened the totals from 6Z to 12Z. 

 

Edit-It actually lowered the totals in Western PA but still going to lay down 1" plus in some areas S Central and South East PA. 

Looking at the 12z NAM on Tropical Tidbits I don't see the 1" plus? 

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

If you read their AFD they are torn between the Euro and everything else.  Most models bring a weak low right under us and lay down the goods on Sunday for the southern half of PA.  See Nam below.   Unfortunately pretty much nothing helps northern PA now.

 

 

Thanks. My vibe is even the south doesn't get this much but hope I'm wrong. 

Just now, Anduril said:

Pretty sure he is he was advertising houses on his twitter

Wow. Well hope he still keeps an eye on the winter weather for us. :-) 

Is Matt Moore now in Real Estate? He was great in this forum during Winter Storms. Did he leave the weather world? Anyone know?

Where is NWS seeing this for my area:

Sunday

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Yep.  That has been a trend this summer.  Euro did not do nearly this well over the winter especially in short term.

A ridiculous 75 degrees and 70% humidity this AM.   This literally is Florida weather for the time of the day. 

 

Exactly.....EURO was not good this winter but the trend is better now. Same here as far as heat and humidity. 

40 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Hate to say it but we could have just posted the Euro as the official NWS forecast and would have been pretty much right.   Euro shows little to no Precip for most of PA for the next 10 days. 

6z GFS is going the EURO way as well. 

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

They must be doing old fashioned meteorology and ignoring the Euro's influence on a decision. 

Yes that is what I was thinking totally ignoring the Euro right now. 

I guess for me Miller L is coming to my house tonight.

From NWS:

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

The Orioles are 6-1 on the road and 3-6 at Camden Yards. I guess the Birds get excited playing in hostile environments this year. 

Yeah, our Cardboard Cutouts aren't working. 

32 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

When was the last stinking Miller A we had?

It's another Delaware Valley special today.....and something even worse @Itstrainingtime   STOP the O's from beating the Phils please. Maybe the rain will last over there so they can't beat them today. 

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Dr. No. 

LOL. Yep. 

29 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Euro on a totally different planet for this weekend.  Warm and no rain for anyone in PA.  No rain for anyone until Central VA actually. Suppressed by a blocking High. 

Sounds like the winter time models. 

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

You look at this map and you might say "eh...what's so great about that?" (particularly for our area)

1. Our forecast was for 1-3". I had 16". That's a pretty colossal bust in a good way, which is rare.

2. Sustained winds even in our area were stronger than ANY storm that I've experienced, including the Superstorm.

 

Like Nut said, we all have elements that are important to us. For some, it's all about the final total. I completely get that. For me, I like to see blinding snow being whipped sideways by 40+ mph winds. This storm had that. We had a drift in our driveway that exceeded 9' in depth. 

 

Yeah I like the elements along with the large totals. Look at that cut line though. WOW as Bubbler pointed out he got fringed. 

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Some on this board (the current iteration) blamed Y2k for what happened. 

LOL.