paweather

Until the EURO caves which it might, I am all in for 2 foot. 

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 12z Canadian low position & track is very good. The low stalls off of the DelMarVa and southern NJ coast. 
Notice the second precip max over State College back towards Latrobe due to the banding that sets up this run. This back could set up further east or west or maybe just fill in.

The bottom line is that we are all still very much in the game.

 

Gotta move those 30-40" range back west Blizz!  From Yesterday. 

Primary seems to be over Charleston right now.

2 minutes ago, anotherman said:

I think we need to adjust expectations.  I have.  Unless you are in eastern PA.  It really looks like the LSV is too far west to get the really good stuff.  I hope I'm wrong.

Just depends on what your expectations are, mine are anything above 30" right now so I may be disappointed. 

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

The Nam, CMC and RGEM all show it starting to transfer again tomorrow evening and I am convinced that is robbing some of our potential for a far reaching deform band.  Similar to the way a cluster of storms can rob from areas around them. 

Yeah I agree. It is that second transfer that wasn't there in earlier model runs. Let's hope the EURO stays the course. 

CMC is a more easterly adjustment now as well from yesterday 12z STILL good amounts but you can see the trends now for the CCB it is heading east. I hope it gets fixed back west.  

Just now, kerplunk said:

Thanks! Something to look forward to.

Yep. Long way to go. 

HRRR time 8pm tonight:

1 minute ago, kerplunk said:

Close to an inch so far. Getting mighty bright here. Half expecting the sun to break through. When’s the main event expected to start?

Tonight....this is like a tease event right now. 

6 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Well.........

You’re ok. 
 

Thanks NUT! 

Just now, Atomixwx said:

JI was a riot on the EasternUS forums back in the day. Are they still around?

That was the Marcus forum they are gone and have been. It was great except for the always down during storms. 

Just now, Burghblizz said:

Kpitsnow and his complaints. 

Good to see you Burgh. 

Just now, Atomixwx said:

What's that supposed to mean?

We will take anyone in this SUB forum, even me and JI!

Just now, Cashtown_Coop said:

I'll take that and run. 

Just now, KPITSnow said:

In any case, we will see how it plays out. You guys are in a much better position than those of us in WPA.

It's all good, Miller B's are Miller B's nothing is set in stone until real time plays out. It just depends on how long the "tuck" of the low stays in place for us. Like the GFS it pulls out after 30. It will be interesting on the CMC and EURO to see if they will change. 

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

No models except for the trash NAM are showing this....the storm is just starting.

Thank you even the NAM has a pounding today and tomorrow that doesn't correlate to the colorful snow maps.

Just now, KPITSnow said:

I would say look at what is going on right now and the radar. I know the coastal could really impact you guys later, but the NAM pretty accurately showed what is going on right now.

I'll take my chances on the EURO and enjoy whatever I get. 

Just now, paweather5 said:

I think as @pawatch just said a lot of dry air overrunning part don’t look great. Big tick East on all models. I didn’t believe the nam at first but now has a lot of support. 

I guess we will see. I don't see concerns right now, I see snow falling. 

1 minute ago, paweather5 said:

I would not it seems most models have trended this way. I think now Tom Russel map was right. Big lean East and north with the heaviest. Kind of unreal two for two this year showing big amounts then as the storm is starting fades. Still happy with what we get but think more in the 4 to 8 range around Harrisburg, Lancaster, York .

So would you discount the EURO? And I should say why? Outside of one run the EURP has been the most consistent model for this storm. 

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Enjoy the storm folks. Looks like the second blockbuster event for you this winter. We're staring down another big bust south of Mason-Dixon. If it's not the mix line, it's a dry slot.

Thanks EJ. Everything is real time now at the very least and all is in play as far as concerns. Good luck to you down there. 

Flakes are flying. Euro for the win.

Weather Action Second Call:

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, steady light snow began in Marysville within the last hour!

Every flake is sticking instantly!

Too think we have 2 days of this yet. 

It's beginning to look a lot like winter. 

4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Relax...no one is starting anything. No one has won or lost until we are measuring & shoveling on Tuesday.

Let’s enjoy the journey!

I'll move on.