USCAPEWEATHERAF

NAM and its parallel model both show extensive potential for ferocious wind gusts on Tuesday late morning through the afternoon hours. there remains a window of 6-12 hours where winds could gust as high as 105mph according to the NAM model. Stay tuned for further updates.

March 11th 2017 605pm entry: Very cold air mass overhead the Northeastern US tonight. temperatures for Sunday morning lows are around 10-12F over the Cape. Forecasted temperatures won't break 25 the next two days Sunday and Monday. This arctic air mass will be the reason we can expect a snowstorm to occur some time Monday night through Wednesday morning depending upon if the storm slows down at all, right now the 12z and 18z runs today show a progressive but easterly track with less phasing, although I don't think this is about a less of a phase. While common knowledge dictates that the stronger the phase the further west the storm tracks is correct most of the time, the 18z GFS and NAM are both east of the 12z runs positions, and therefore show a faster transfer of energy between the clipper (primary) low and the coastal storm that takes over earlier on the latest guidance. Given nature of the H5 trough, this should allow the coastal storm to intensify rapidly and be in the lower 970mb range, rather than the higher 988mb range the GFS has. Therefore winds should gust between 70-90mph, 70mph if the GFS is right or 90mph if the stronger solutions are correct. Remember the faster the transfer of energy between the primary OH Valley low and the coastal low off the coast of SC occurs, then the further eastward it will travel, I don't expect a far east track, but one down the middle of today's guidance, over the benchmark, east of ACK and CHH of around 970-980mb low pressure center producing a few feet of snow from DC to BOS with NYC to BOS receiving the mega amount of snowfall of around 24-30" of snow. Coastal New England including Cape Cod should remain all snow and receive up to 34" of snow. Those are my thoughts right now, subject to change.

2003 storms one on Feb 7th and another on the 18th brought 12"+ in both storms to Cape Cod.

Brewster sat at 10". but I do remember measuring 17" for NEMO

Storm total accumulation was 17"

Ummm, I got 17" in Harwich, MA, that map has me in the trace to 4" range, that is wrong for the February 8-9th 2013 blizzard.

The March '14 storm was a huge blizzard, but it was about 200 miles out to sea. Anyways, it looks like the pattern gets better for Thanksgiving Week, much colder temps and a huge reservoir of cold air in central Canada shifting eastward into the Quebec, Canada sector. Also storms are starting to get closer and closer to the big deal, the 12z GFS shows a monster.

I brought up the Jan 05 storm as an analog, but there was a huge difference between storms. While the 05 Blizzard was much more dynamic energy wise, the 15 Jan blizzard dug much further southeast before closing off.

There are model runs showing similar characteristics from that Jan 26-27 2015 event as to now for the 16-17th of OCT. There is a lot of energy running around the base of the northeast US trough for this period and models are beginning to show signs of a more energetic disturbance associated with this trough and +PNA pattern. Just something to look after.

The January 26-27th 2015 Blizzard was just that for Harwich, MA. A storm that was originally thought to have brought taint and rain to The outer Cape Cod area, never saw a drop of rain. We got 30.4" of snow, maybe a bit more in certain areas of the region, but we stayed all snow and never went to rain. I read some of that thread a week ago. Man everyone was down on the event three days ahead of time.

Yeah Cape Cod, MA had wind gusts reach 120mph in Eastham, like a mini vortex with microburst potential wind damage.

Probably the benchmark storm ever for Harwich, MA was the Blizzard of 2005. The Blizzard of January 26-27th 2015 was a close second, but nothing will compare to that mega band that hit interior SE MA with 7-8" of snow in 75 minutes time. Snowfall rates were close to 10" in that band. We had several bands reach 5"/hour here on the Cape as well during that blizzard. By 12am midnight on the 23rd we had 12" of snow in an 8 hour period, after that time we had another 23" within another 15 hour period. Extremely amazing for sure.

my Favorite blizzard of the past was just this past winter, Harwich, MA got roughly 30" of wind blasted snow, the snow pack lasted so long that when my brother came home from college for February we made a giant snow man, about ten feet high. LOL, I'm going through the archives for that storm now.