USCAPEWEATHERAF

Looking at the latest 12z model data, it appears that the last week of October through the Halloween holiday and into the first few weeks of November the Teleconnections will favor trough in the east and ridge in the west type pattern where sustained cold will be possible in New England north of 40N latitude. This could mean a stormy November in which cold air sinks into the Oh Valley centered in this region the trough will allow storms to come up the East Coast to the benchmark and give us precipitation perhaps in the form of snow or rain. GEFS. GFS, EURO, CMC all favor a long range pattern that is conducive for snow and cold, just how cold will be determined by a negative anomaly in the Arctic Oscillation cycle. This negative anomaly should allow a polar vortex or a vortex from the arctic circle to focus a cold air phase into the Northeastern US by November 1st. This should be a fun period folks, especially if blocking develops over the Atlantic Ocean.

SO the models are showing frigid air entering the northern Plains sometime in the next ten days and that cold air filters into the eastern US by day 13-16, which is the 27th and beyond of October. We could be seeing a change to much colder air eventually as winter gets closer. Most of our storms this winter will be from the Oh Valley to the Mid Atlantic coastal storm tracks, signifying that miller Bs and not Miller As will be the normalcy this winter.

Ok the pattern upcoming for the next two weeks is quite simple. Simply put, it remains a negative to neutral PNA, positive NAO and positive AO, this means cold air will continue to filter into the western Canada and Western US, while the eastern US and eastern Canada remain underneath a strong ridge of high pressure with southwesterly winds and warm temperatures. By the end of October, this pattern may switch to more seasonal temperatures showing a cooling trend by the beginning of November. the models show some semblance of a -AO/+PNA pattern emerging in the long range but the NAO remains positive or neutral at best. Time will tell, but we will certainly run into a winter cold snap sometime in the future, perhaps near.

Hey everyone of Americanwx.com foruims, Today I inform you that my novel, 'The Dawn Awakening: Opening Segment" is being reviewed by a publishing company for potential publishing, keep me in your prayers, as we can get through the barrier of publishing. Thanks, I will have another updated blog on Thursday when they make the decision. Thanks! James Warren Nichols

thanks

Man Blizzard of 2005 beats all with cold air and snow.

I will no doubt

awesome, I no doubt pay attention to your forum, we guys know the most on your region so I come to your forum to watch the comments on the latest snow events

The videos of the Blizzard of 2015 Coverage is awesome. I hate how Harvey and Mike didn't update the snow fall graphic every time news came in of the Outer Cape getting over 24", Harwich came in at 30.4" officially, but you know how banding is, I measured 32" in my front yard. I live in Harwich Center, there has to be a residual front between Harwich and Chatham.

Any ideas for storm chasing the great western NY and upstate NY areas for Lake Effect Events in November and December?

So folks, should I publish my work on my own with amazon? Or should I go with another publisher?

Hello folks, I am writing to you guys because its fun and a bit of an exercise short story for when I try to write short stories and get published in the future. This practice short story is about a Blizzard of the Century deal where a catastrophic nor'easter meets the NE CONUS and the MW. A storm as strong as the Greenland storms in the winter time. A low as low as 925.4mb a category five hurricane pressure. What would happen if a low bombed out to 925.4mb southeast of Nantucket, MA, how much snow would fall and how would it unfold in SNE. I have a snowfall map from the Midwest Clipper and the Northeast Nor'easter coastal low. Check it out and I hope it holds everyone off until the short story is finished. Take care. James Warren Nichols

I'm just pointing out the GFS run, no need to cry wishcasting.

A microburst potential exists on Tuesday morning as a screaming Low Level Jet with hurricane force winds possible for Cape Cod if the surface low travels over the top of the area.

The latest afternoon run of the GFS today has brought fear into the eyes of the beholder. Shows a 937mb sitting off the SE US Coastline festering on the warmest waters of the Atlantic Ocean. Could become a category four hurricane in another five days.

Models are not crazy about the tropics right now but we have two areas of interest growing in the Tropical Atlantic as I write this blog. First area of concern is close to home, in what we call a homegrown threat, an area of thunderstorms grew into an area of low pressure earlier this afternoon and is growing with thunderstorm activity. It developed from a leftover frontal boundary currently racing off to the Northeast over the western Atlantic Ocean. TS Emily grew from the same front yesterday and is now quickly diminishing in a midst of a shear and dry air. Just as I thought from yesterday this area needed to be monitored as the area of frontal shear caused by a front in the GOM appears to be lessening now and is near 10-20 knots instead of 30-40 knots yesterday. This shear should continue to drop according to the 18z GFS run yesterday afternoon. This small area of low pressure is already well defined on satellite imagery this evening and appears to be gaining convection. Depending upon if the convection is consistent and persistent will determine the tropical outlook on this system. Next system of interest is a tropical wave currently in the MDR battling dry air to the north of it and the ITCZ influence to the south of it. Shear is light to moderate, not enough to stop development, should become an invest tomorrow morning. Stay tuned this system could become a threat to the lesser Antilles islands in the mid term.

Check out my recent work, my novel draft and my short story. I want to publish them both soon. Hurricane Hunter Short Story.docx A day of Rest, chapter one.docx

The title is "A Wild Weekend to remember, a love story" there will be a continuation of Marie and Walter's weekend in the second short story and then a continuation of the story. James Warren Nichols, written by A couple, a love story.docx

Hmmm, why aren't people flocking to a newly written novel

Take a look at my attached novel, give some comments too. The Year 2029, Catalystic Beginning.docx

12z Models are in and bring some snow to the Cape and Islands, they are further south than the 00z runs and this still makes me believe that the models are not quite there in there handling of the H5 low just yet. I will give a full blog update tomorrow morning.

My latest snowfall map and Cape Cod could likely gust past 80mph tomorrow

My latest snowfall map and Cape Cod could likely gust past 80mph tomorrow

A major nor'easter/blizzard is imminent. Blizzard of 2017 is on its way. The northern piece of energy has made a US landfall over NW US at 18z yesterday afternoon or evening and this is the energy that we have been waiting for a sampling of and now that we got models adjusted stronger with the southern vort max and northern vort max. Now there are three jet streams involved. The northern jet stream (AKA Arctic jet stream), southern stream (Pacific Jet) and the sub-tropical jet which situates over the gulf of Mexico, providing the system with a GOM low pressure center and moisture. Ok lets get down to the gist of the models. Models are somewhat different still in their handling of QPF, and storm track as well as intensity and they differ on degree of phasing between all three jet streams. The models have trended stronger with the pacific jet stream energy disturbance over the northern Plains now. this swings southeastward, and depending upon how far south it gets will help determine which model is correct as well as which storm track is correct. On water vapor imagery, one can see a distinct area of vorticity spinning in the atmosphere, this is our southern stream (Pacific jet ) disturbance. With its own moisture source from the Pacific and the Rocky Mountains not doing much to stop the moisture from entraining into the Northern PLains is dumping a good to decent amount of snowfall over the northern Plains towards Detroit, MI. this energy is being forced to the southeast by a large arctic jet gyre or upper level low pressure system diving southward into the Great Lakes tomorrow morning. This trough carries our southern stream disturbance up the east Coast combining with the GULF OF MEXICO energy and low pressure center combined to bring a singular coastal low pressure center that will be rapidly deepening as it head north-northeastward up the East Coast. This earlier phase now expected to happen by most guidance models, is actually allowing the system to track more offshore rather than up the NYC harbor. Benchmark track or Cape Cod track is the final question that needs to be answered. I am going with a forecast mix of the GFS/EURO/NAM models. Using the NAM for QPF output based upon the GFS progressiveness bias in these circumstances in which the storm is allowed to slow down due to the phasing of jets in which the large upper level low phases into the southern stream disturbance and slows it down before departing. I think the low will move from the benchmark to about just east of ACK and CHH producing a mix of rain/snow for coastal Cape Cod and Islands therefore I have Nantucket in the 0-4" range and Harwich to Bourne in the 8-12" range, Chatham will likely see less with 4-8" of snow. the GFS produces a ton of moisture but it falls over the ocean, this is bound to move over land, but where will help determine who gets how much, for now I will leave the 18-24" isolated 30" amounts in banding in the position it is in now. Temperatures tonight will be in the low teens once again. Tomorrow afternoon highs will be near 30F and lows will be near 20F, I don't see how a low 40s ocean warms an arctic air mass with a northerly component to the wind field over Cape Cod, but regardless my forecast carries a mix over Cape Cod therefore only about 8-12" will fall before the changeover. Thunder snows and intense snowfall rates will be likely before the changeover occurs if it does at all. the GFS is all snow except for about a changeover briefly of about .2" of QPF as rain. That shouldn't matter much. the other aspect to this storm is the wind damage and blizzard conditions. I think blizzard conditions are likely even for Cape Cod and the NWS will likely issue a blizzard warning for us instead of a winter storm warning. Hurricane force winds are likely for Cape Cod, Cape Ann and Nantucket and all along the NH and Maine immediate coastline. Also Downeast ME sees only a few inches given that the low tracks west of them bringing in warm air off the ocean from the southeast. Thank you