USCAPEWEATHERAF

Then we shouldn't use any model correct?

The amount of precipitation didn't change, there is barely any mixing on Cape Cod where the QPF max is located. We could see 12:1 ratios as the comma head hits the area along with thundersnow potential.

I am not paying attention to this suite, the satellite imagery of the storm shows a strong system, upper support is strong and there is a strong GULF connection with no Atlantic source of moisture yet involved. This will be a big precipitation and convection maker, the surface low will intensify after hitting the ocean, and then ignites as it hits the Gulf Stream.

RGEM is all snow for Cape Cod even ACK. Provincetown seems to be the place to be in SNE this storm. 12-20"

ICON continues to show the region that gets the jackpot, SE MA.

Water vapor imagery is showing the surface low moving over NE GA now intensifying with the shape of the baroclinic leaf improving. The mid-level support system is phasing in with the GOM disturbance.

13z HRRR is actually not as "Meh" as you might think. Shows a further west precip shield as it heads northeastward.

Will what I believe argues against the premise of a weaker shortwave and low, is that the precipitation shield is beginning to show rotation as it moves northeastward and the amount of energy in the GULF states with lightning everywhere. Including the energy needed to produce a squall line.

Will, I think the models are mishandling the phase of the Great Lakes shortwave because the NAM, for instance, is too far east with the shortwave in the southern stream, with this phase between the MO disturbance and the GULF disturbance, this system will grow in size and allow the phased shortwave to slow down and grow in size and intensity.

Lol, my drawing needs a little work, water vapor shows a much better-developed system

The reason it is unreasonable is the vorticity is developed through the convection the model develops offshore. The vorticity looks to develop due to the convection, not due to the upper level energy within the shortwave. Water vapor imagery is a great tool to use in this case. The MO shortwave is phasing in with the Gulf shortwave, you can see this taking place as the shortwave begins to pivot in place. I will show you an image of what I mean. Image below shows the developing storm system, with the strong baroclinic leaf in the southeast, the dry slot developing to the west of the low is where our disturbance has phased together with the top of the storm now taking shape.

Our GULF/MO low is finally phasing in together, look at the morphology of the water vapor imagery. Amazing work.

Not buying into the NAM yet. Until I see other guidance fold, I will not buy into it.

Do you read the title of the thread?

The important energy right now is the Northern US Plains vort max that curls around the Polar Vortex influenced Arctic Jet Stream. This disturbance can phase into the Gulf Shortwave, we can have a major nor'easter like the GFS shows. HIRES short range HRRR 12z run shows a powerful storm developing.

Jim Cantore mentioned he believes lightning is possible in SNE tomorrow.

I will never be suicidal over the weather, something as out of our control as that, it is not a good thing. I have been through my darkest days, I will not let myself get that far again. I don't joke around about something as serious as suicides.

It shouldn't tick nw anymore. I would be real surprised.

I don't think I will mix, CHH sure, ACK sure, but not anyone west of there.

They are wrong

6z GFS is all snow, over 20" of snow forecasted for CHH.

Baroclinic leaf developing with our GOM low.

But not their AFD?

They do pay attention to the latest 6z guidance, right? NAM came in hotter with QPF amounts.

They are stubbornly conservative this goes around, this is not the storm to be quiet about or conservative about. Models show thundersnow potential across eastern MA, they also show winds in excess of 40 knots across the Cape and islands, the problem is visibility might not get low enough to issue a Blizzard Watch currently. Potential exists for over a foot of snow from HYA westward to coastal and interior SE MA.