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USCAPEWEATHERAF

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Everything posted by USCAPEWEATHERAF

  1. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Perhaps a surface low is developing near the convection just east of HSE.
  2. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    I would say it is gulf stream enhanced convection. Probably due to strong wind shear as surface winds out of the southeast and upper level winds out of the southwest.
  3. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    The good news so far with the nowcast, is that water vapor imagery continues to show us what we need to see with the stronger lift and thunderstorm development is associated with the mid-level shortwave.
  4. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    The primary is blowing up convection right now, where the best mid to upper level dynamics are present.
  5. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    WE have lightning initiation and development of thunderstorms off of Cape Hatteras, NC.
  6. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Looking at water vapor imagery I would say we are going to have a large storm system impacting us tomorrow. Right now the primary low inland is still hanging strong. 1014mb low. A large outbreak of high cloud tops seems like a line of storms is developing along the cold front as mid level vort max is rotating. That is a sign of a strengthening mid level low.
  7. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    I think confidence is increasing in Plymouth and Bristol counties in MA receiving a foot plus.
  8. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Wow, you are more enthusiastic then I am, 10 feet of snow is a lot to ask for
  9. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    The models agree the phase is too late for most of New England, but it happens in time for Hazey and Nova Scotia, Canada, where they get buried over 2' of snow.
  10. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Will is the track good for Cape Cod?
  11. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    The GULF disturbance is strong, heavy lightning along the warm front over SC.
  12. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    The HRRR is slowing the onset of the storm down further and further each hour run.
  13. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Why would I give up on this storm if the EURO goes east, that would mean more snow for me
  14. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    It is quite the intense situation for the pro mets on tv and working otherwise. We have a huge bust potential between 1-3" and as much as 6-12" potentially. Huge difference.
  15. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    ULJ is curling into the storm system.
  16. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Will, what did you take from the 24-30 hour period of the mid-level vort maxes? Did it show you may be a faster phase between them? It looked like the GFS wanted to phase the GULF storm and the GRT Lakes shortwave a little faster closer to the New England coastline. Am I seeing things now, or did that really show that?
  17. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Thanks Ray. Look I agree, it is not credible being excited for every modeled snow threat. And I will try to focus on the whole region and not just IMBY anymore. It is hard to do.
  18. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    I am sorry, I was thinking about my area. But everyone is right, the storm tracked further southeast this run. I will tone my enthusiasm down. Jerry you of all people should know the excitement that comes with storms. Gosh. I wonder sometimes.
  19. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Ok I see the difference in the runs from 6z to 12z. Its a slight difference, but QPF is not as intense in a 3 hour period, but it is more moderate and more widespread at 12z.
  20. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    This is a very powerful and energetic storm developing and heading our way. Does anyone see the storms in Florida Panhandle? Not only does it take heat for storms to develop, it takes energy in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. Shortwaves provide that source of energy to produce updrafts and CAPE.
  21. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    12z GFS closes off at 850mb
  22. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    GFS is the same, I don't see any southeast movement everyone says they saw.
  23. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Come on Ray, the water temps have cooled off significantly to my northeast and north, that is where the wind is coming from with this storm.
  24. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    It doesn';t make sense the warmth in the lower levels would come that close to the Cape, we have northeasterly to northerly winds as the storm tracks southeast of ACK and the benchmark.
  25. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    The warmth in the low-levels comes from where? Northeasterly winds don't scream marine influence this time of the year. Storm track is far enough southeast of ACK the wind direction is northeast to north.
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