USCAPEWEATHERAF

Oh, I am not saying they have, just now with the way the Oceans are, the coastline south of SNE coast is getting warmer on average, this season it is quite warm already and we have yet to reach climo peak.

Invest 94L is the system east of the central Bahamas by about 90-104 miles. It is developing a better-defined center of circulation in the lower levels. Convection is getting better organized and it is over very high SSTs and high OHC. Also of note, the shear is still too high for rapid development, but the SHIPS diagnostic shear forecast is expected to be favorable for a three day period over 29.5+C water temperatures. Huge potential here, we need to watch carefully.

Right now we are potentially watching a dangerous situation potentially unfolding. Given the warmth of the ocean and the shear is expected to drop soon, this system will be in an explosive environment for development. Oceanic Sea Surface temperatures are around the mid to upper 80s currently in the system's location, with wind shear still around 10-20 knots, enough to slightly disrupt a developing surface low. Once this drops to around 5-10 knots, this system should take off. What is strange about this system, is the lack of any model support this morning. However, we have seen situations in which tropical cyclones do develop without modeled support. Next NHC update in the next thirty to forty minutes.

Latest forecasts show the development of invest 94L, designated this as such due to the fact it is an area of interest the NHC has designated for a more thorough investigation with models and other observations are allowed to take place. The designation is assigned a number 90 through 99 and then is recycled through and through. Since the areas are only investigation numbers, they would rather recycle through the same numbers than confuse everyone about them. 94L is a system about 100 or so miles east of the central Bahamas. People traveling to the Bahamas, Florida and then the rest of the immediate Southeast US coast, need to watch the potential progress and development if it occurs with this system. Impacts could be felt in the Bahamas as soon as tomorrow afternoon and along the Florida coast as soon as Tuesday morning. Please stay safe, that is and shall always remain your one and only priority in these situations as your possessions can be replaced, your life or the life of a loved one cannot.

I believe since ENSO will be transitioning from weak El Nino state to a neutral and then weak La Nina state throughout the hurricane season, we could see a slow August and then a large ramp up from the end of August through November. I believe the East Coast is at risk, as the potential for near home activity is higher than average. Especially with a rather dry MDR and the tropical Atlantic Ocean west of 60W longitude, the favored areas for significant tropical cyclone activity of Major Hurricanes category three or higher landfalls looks to be NC, SC, FL Gulf of Mexico and parts of the Mid-Atlantic states. I believe there will be a threatening major potentially category four hurricane making landfall on the Northeastern Us sometime late August through Labor Day into the first few weeks of September given the highly warm western Atlantic Ocean right now and expected throughout the rest of the season, as oceanic temps reach the low-80s off the Cape and Islands by the end of AUG. A situation in which a cold front stall of the NC coastline into the Bahamas leads to a surface low developing in the Bahamas region and then heading up the East Coast, peaking as a major cat four hurricanes and making landfall on the SNE south coast is something I see. A stronger version of Hurricane Bob 1991, looks like a threat.

Latest models are showing the potential for a strong surface low to develop along a weak cold front as it sits stationary off the Mid-Atlantic States early this upcoming work week. Winds could gust near 50mph at times especially over the Cape and Islands. Now there is a small window for something a bit more potent because the ocean is warm in this area, we could see potential tropical development. We will have to see. Stay tuned and vigilant.

Sports update will come after Wednesday this upcoming new work week, I have to watch the latest forecasts for the early week period as a hybrid storm could bring significant impacts to SE New England Monday night into Tuesday night. Right now models showing a surface low around 1004mb or lower impacting the region with widespread wind and rain issues. Could become significant if given time over water.

There is a 700mb vort northwest of Puerto Rico and north of Hispaniola by about 100-140 miles, there is also a surface low developing presently, with a low-level circulation developing. There is a strong hint of this occurring by watching the low-level cumulus field.

These two discrete cells developing over central CT could become severe in the next hour. Large hail and damaging winds are a potential hazard as well as a microburst. This is a highly unstable environment and low-level shear could enhance a tornado risk along the sea-breeze front. It is quite strong this afternoon as one has penetrated the south coast into central CT, RI and interior SE MA. Temps have cooled off some here on the Cape, with a drop of about five degrees Fahrenheit.

Harwich, MA reached 92F, our high of the year.

I think western and central maybe even eastern NYS will see a large damaging wind event today, later this evening. The MCS/Damaging Line over the central Lakes will have a ton of juice and viable CAPE values to rage onto the evening hours and even past sunset as the humidity will still be in place. This could be a derecho like an event.

Chatham, MA reached a high in the low-90s today, with a high heat index of 106F. Basically a west wind to this point. Tomorrow is supposed to be worse heat-wise.

Bob, it is 75F, here in Harwich, MA. That is super warm and muggy with a dp of around 74F.

NWS is forecasting a high on Sunday at Chatham, MA of 95F, with a heat index of near 105F+. We have a heat advisory out for us, Saturday afternoon peak high of 89F. I expect that to be in the mid-90s instead.

I will be working on my predictions for the NFL and NBA upcoming seasons the next few days. I will have the final products by the end of the weekend. Thanks!

Severe Storm Warning for Barnstable, outer Cape, north of Orleans, MA

Low-level shear has increased ahead of the line in SE MA and RI, up to 20-knots.

Dendrite, I saw it looked like a blip after the radar updated the next frame after I said what I said, I apologize. We are still unstable over the Cape, even out here on the Outer Cape with CAPE values near 1500j/kg.

But if you look at the whole line, the main push is from the northwest and is moving the line ever so slowly southeastward, while the front of the line is moving west to east and the individual cells are moving northward into the line.

Need to watch the cell developing just north of Block Island, as it remains isolated and could begin to move into the high instability bubble.

These small thunderstorm cells are beginning to merge into the mainline that is moving southeastward. I think we can get a small tornado threat window in the next few hours as this occurs and moves into the higher instability in SE MA and RI. Sunshine remains high in this area as the high cirrus clouds have thinned and moved out of the area.

Scott do you think they will be severe when they reach Cape and the Islands?

This is the type of airmass that produces this type of severe weather events. Dew points on the Cape are in the mid 70s.

Satellite and radar imagery suggests that was the case. Remember that hail storm last summer on Cape Cod, the Outer Cape, Wellfleet area, dropped 2" sized hail that cloud went so high into the atmosphere that is was just like a nuclear blast cloud.

Scott and Jay, these storms that hit the sea breeze boundary have exploded. As the boundary lifted northward across CT and RI and SE MA it hit the instability that remains high all over SE MA right now and the storms just have exploded over the Boston area. Also southwest of Boston and into the Worcester, MA area.