USCAPEWEATHERAF

Yeah, but we should stay vigilant today too.

Severe weather risk for eastern Massachusetts especially the Cape and Islands this afternoon and evening as a cold front will spark big storms as it drags southward into the higher instability over Cape and Islands.

I think it is safe as long as the ULAC stays with it and develops overhead.

We have invest-95L now. It is the wave in the Eastern Caribbean Sea.

WxWatcher, I don't think the wave is running into the shear, there is a large upper-level anticyclone over the wave axis and area of highest vorticity at the surface. This upper-level anticyclone will push and prevent the shear from interfering with the wave and its potential development. Satellite imagery suggests there is a surface trough or area of convergence in the low levels that are developing under the convection. Also, our tropical wave entering the Atlantic Ocean from the west African coastline is showing tremendous signs of a surface low present and it is spinning already with deep convection. Could see two tropical storms develop this upcoming work week. The eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave could be a long term threat to the Eastern USA.

I don't have the time or drive to do predictions for the next seasons in the NBA and NFL this weekend, with the importance of Red Sox games and the tropical weather heating up as the date for the average first hurricane is AUG 1st, so the climo peak is coming in another 5 to 6 weeks, I will be quite busy with the weather. I will have the predictions done before September 1st.

The 2019 Defending World Series Champion Boston Red Sox are now on pace to score 947 runs this season, eclipsing their totals from the last ten seasons of Red Sox baseball. They will be second to the 2003 Red Sox with the modern-day record of 966 runs scored the franchise record. Not even last year's Sox had that many runs scored, and in fact, it would be over 100 runs better. Last season, even with their amazing 108-54 record, their offense was never this potent, with breakout seasons by Bogaerts and Devers and average seasons by JD and another MVP caliber season by Mookie Betts who could score over 140 runs this season, this would make him the second Red Sox player ever to score that many runs in a single season, second only to the Greatest Hitter of Red Sox history, Mr. Ted Williams. He actually did it several times.

The 2019 Defending World Series Champion Red Sox are on pace for the second-most runs scored in a season since their 2003 team had 966 runs, they are on pace for 942 runs scored.

Yeah I wasn't sure. thanks for specifying, but the velocity radar showed this RFD developing.

My experiences with extreme weather in the past have been hard to come by. Living on the outer Cape Cod, our chances at tornadoes and severe thunderstorms. However, the greatest chance at severe thunderstorms and including supercells occur only during the months of July and August. Now, why is this important? During the months of July and August the water temperatures in the ocean around Cape Cod, except to the southeast, have been warming substantially and are way above average for this time of the year, this is leading to temperatures over 75F surrounding Cape and Islands, which allow the soupy presence of dew point air temperatures over 70F on the Cape. This leads to some presence of instability, especially with a south wind. Early on the morning of Tuesday, July 23rd, 2019, I woke up several times in the morning around 6 am and 8 am tracking the thunderstorm complex that moved through the Cape and weakened with some light showers passing through. As the time approached 8:30 a.m. Long Island had several water spouts develop south of the area over the open ocean as velocity couplets were present with radar indicated presence of water spouts. They were moving towards the ENE at about 30-40mph. What alerted me to a rather elevated and perhaps higher chance at severe weather, at least chance of damaging winds, was the extreme presence of high wind shear values in all significant levels of the atmosphere. These levels were SFC-1km, SFC-6km, and SFC to 3km wind shear numbers. Effective Bulk Shear of 60-65 knots over the Cape stayed there all day long as the front was slow to move southeastward off the coast. Instability nosed into the area just as the cluster of storms was nearby, which turned into a meso-low influenced supercell that was moving from Falmouth, MA to Harwich, MA and Chatham, MA. The Supercell and attendant mesocyclone moved through the mid Cape region, after passing north of Martha's Vineyard with gusts over 69mph, Kalmus, MA reached a gust of 90mph as the supercell matured even more and got more intense with the velocity scans showing an intense couplet that got tighter as it reached the Yarmouth, MA region as the radar first indicated a tornado on the ground. A section of radar technology that was recently developed for tornado confirmation was the correlation coefficient. This technology can detect debris in the air other than precipitation falling. This CC radar indicated debris lofted into the air over Yarmouth, which wa likely the Cape Sands Inn roof that was lofted into the air from the touchdown of the first EF-1 tornado that peaked at 110mph over Yarmouth and Dennis, while it lifted back into the Mesocyclone. Then minutes later the tornado warning was issued for Harwich and most of the lower Outer Cape, where the second tornado touchdown around 12:10 pm or later winds gusted over 110mph in my backyard as the circulation likely passed just over the forest of trees in my backyard. There were two distinct wind bursts that occurred on my street. The first wind burst occurred at much weaker state, about 30-40mph winds, this was winds out of the southwest, than the second more intense burst was likely the rear flank downdraft or the backside of the tornado circulation that passed northwest of my house. These winds did the most damage in the area as they likely gusted over 110mph as we lost a lot of trees and some just snapped in half. Parts of Harwich Center, MA about a mile down the street, suffered complete devastation. Road closures, trees on homes, trees snapped completely in half with completely developed matured trees just snapped completely in half. Brooks Park has a large forest of large healthy trees, it looked like a plane dropped an atomic bomb was released and detonated at 20 feet high off the ground and blew up the area. Half the trees were completely snapped in half. The town center area suffered utter tree damage that no one has ever seen before here. It was chaos. The emotions were just filled with utter sadness. Fires engulfing homes, gas leaks and evacuations as homes and streets were deemed uninhabitable. We had 18 minutes of lead time, my family and I went into the basement for the first in our lives as the winds occurred over our house. Debris started flying and my family and I headed into the basement. It was the scariest moment of my life. Life is starting to get back to normal, we gained power back around 1 pm to 3 pm yesterday afternoon. Almost a day after the tornado, we thank the local emergency and power officials for a tremendous job done so far. Thanks for listening and taking the time to read my post.

I will write my blog post now and post it shortly of my experience from the Tuesday Severe Weather on Cape Cod, including two separate EF-1 tornado touchdowns, with 110mph winds.

lol

Hey Paul the story of the fraud part is that I took a video and posted one or two from the storms the previous night, and he asked me the next day, after the tornado event, if he could use my video, I actually thought he was talking about my video, I didn't realize there was an actual video of the tornado on twitter already, until I realized what my discussion was linked too. I quickly corrected the story once I realized what he was indeed asking for, so I wasn't trying to take any credit away from Mario Jey.

Yeah, the parent supercell/mesocyclone struck the entire length of the south coast of Cape Cod from the Elizabeth Islands, southwest of Falmouth, MA where the supercell's mesocyclone was producing water spouts or potential water spouts. The supercell absorbed the mesolow and created a large circulation that enveloped most of the Cape Cod area at one time. Especially south of Route 6, the Mid-Cape Highway. South of the Highway, the supercell and parent circulation spawned the first radar indicated tornado as the Correlation Coefficient radar picked up a debris signature over South Yarmouth, just southwest of the Bass River and the town line of Dennis and Yarmouth. Then the confirmed reports from the NWS damage survey team suggests the tornado roped out and lifted and then redeveloped over South Harwich and moved about a 50 yards to the northwest of my backyard where my street got lashed by two wind downbursts, according to what I observed on the velocity radar it showed the southeast flank of the circulation strike the entire area where the first initial downburst was quite weak, about 40mph winds, while the circulation past to the immediate north of my house, the second burst struck the area, and what Reed Timmer suggests as the Rear Flank Downdraft, which he said is only present when a tornado is on the ground. I believe he said that. I could be corrected, Paul? That burst of winds was definitely over 100mph winds. Our large double trunk pine tree was completely uprooted. Signs of the damage suggest it was caused by a legit circulation and not straight-line winds. Once the winds struck and debris started flying everywhere, my two brothers, my sister and mom and I all went straight into our basement. A lot of people are saying the extent of the damage and the concentration in my town of Harwich, MA was the worst everyone has ever seen. Worst than Bob. The NWS says that the path width of the tornado was as big as 250 yards, which is quite wide. It also lasted two-plus miles. We lost power at around 12;30 p.m once the town deemed it necessary for public safety that they cut the power to most of the town, over 93%. We gained our power back between 1 pm and 3 pm. I was taking a nap when it was restored.

Sorry, everyone, my sports update will happen by this weekend, and my account of the Cape Cod two EF-1 tornado touchdowns will occur by Thursday evening. Stay tuned!

I have been posting Bob. I will post a blog of my experience the last 12-18 hours.

Have you ever seen such tremendous shear in an event like this? I mean every level shear was extreme.

thanks Paul, we were following this complex of storms since Long Island, I mean wind shear was so high over the area I knew something bad was coming. And we only needed some instability, and we got it when the winds veered to the south.

From 11:30 am when the first tornado warning was issued, until 1:00 pm when the storm exited the Chatham coastline, we witnessed the most harrowing hour and a half Cape Cod has ever witnessed. This damage is worse then any other weather event at least since Hurricane Bob. In many cases this was also worse than Bob. The amazing sight of social media these days, we are allowed access to imagery we couldn't even imagined back ten or twelve years ago. Today, countless eye witness accounts can confirm and help the NWS send out more precise warnings to their viewer ship and warning areas. Communication is essential in disaster situations and this is another case. The warnings were issued way in advance. The radar and satellite technology at the fingertips of weather science has revolutionized our abilities to detect tornadoes without the confirmation of sight. Today we comibined both as radar known as Correlation Coefficient allows us to detect other things in the air other than precipitation, such as debris in the air if a tornado is on the ground. Tpday I hope we can learn from this unforuntate disaster and peoplpe will be prepared better for the next disaster to come. THis was an amazing experience and I have never witnessed such intense winds ever in my lifetime. Damage photes are everywhere on twitter. Just see my profile @89nich. The sounds of chainsaws and trees being crunched are filling the air today. Be safe!

What an experience this afternoon, actually from 11:30 am to 1:00 pm we witnessed the craziest hour and a half of Cape Cod weather you will ever experience. A legit confirmed tornado ripped through the area, with 90 mph winds and a dangerous rain wrapped tornado. I think some areas will be confirmed at least EF-2 damage. Maybe I know crazy EF-3 damage as an entire roof was peeled off in Yarmouth Port, MA.

I was talking about the heightened risk for tornadoes/damaging winds for last night and this morning across SE MA and RI as a low-pressure center moved northeastward through the area causing the tornado warnings last night across my area. We actually received a lot of wind damage in my town. Winds gusted over 70mph according to radar scans, not sure officially what they will go with. This morning we have another low-pressure center moving our direction with severe warned cells over the coastal waters, causing potential water spouts. They will likely impact my area within the next two hours. The lightning was amazing. Also, what is the brown layer of something when the winds start howling and the rain is coming in horizontally? Is that crap from the trees? The pollen and what not? Check out my latest posts on Twitter at 89nich, you will see the videos I posted, I also did a live shot during the peak lightning. I will do another video of potential damage.

Ok. I thought it would be a more serious situation then it turned out to become, but it has developed into an official depression.

you will eating your words Matt P. It is finally developing that outer armor it needs

I will post everything I am going to argue for a Patriots perfect season including winning the Super Bowl, and why with a certain player or two, the Patriots could have the most dynamic WR set in the NFL and perhaps Brady's career, even better than the Moss led corps of 2007. Wednesday will be the latest to this post.

Perfection happens, just not enough for odds to favor such an event. However, you got to admit, we are due for a big hurricane event. The deepest waters are essentially in the western Caribbean Sea and the waters just north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in the Puerto Rico Trench where depths are nearly 28,000 feet below the surface of the ocean. There are warm enough waters in the Gulf Stream at a fairly deep depth. However, the waters south of the South Shore of New England, and the Islands of Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard are indeed quite shallow, however, for the most part, there are exceptions like Tropical Storm Jose, but for the most part, the forward speed of the hurricanes that reach SNE coastline, are too fast for upwelling to even be considered a negative action.