USCAPEWEATHERAF

Attached is the guidelines for the different threat levels I will put in place for each snow event in the future from end of November through the first week of April 2020. Snowfall amounts and impacts forecast technique.docx

I see a slightly favored central New England snowfall this winter, with potentially for a higher above average snow over the I-95 corridor points eastward from eastern CT to ME.

List of names (TWC) issued for the 2019-2020 winter season: Aubrey - Bessie - Caleb - Dorothy - Ezekiel - Finley - Gage - Henry - Isaiah - Jacob - Kade - Lamont - Mabel - Nash - Odell - Pearl - Quincy - Ruth - Sadie - Thatcher - Upton - Veronica - Wyatt - Xandra - Yates - Zachariah

Not what I want, but that is always a possibility. First lake effect breakout is when?

That will change as we head deeper into the month. Last week of October into Halloween is a normal timeframe for a major nor'easter.

I'm concerned we might be dealing with the strong biases of the GFS with clipper tracks again. Right now the guidance is split with the track of the clipper tomorrow.

I don't have many pairs of pants, perhaps one pair of jeans, two gym pants and several cacky pants. Spell check? Anyways winter signs are showing up in the weather patterns evolving in the next two weeks. Clipper/development off of Cape Cod this weekend.

I am not aware of the October weather patterns and their correlation to potential winter weather impacts on patterns and what not, but the models are showing the pattern beginning to favor winter aspects we can expect in the winter months of New England weather. One such phenomenon is the Alberta Clipper/miller B development that the models show happening in the short term, snow in the Northern New England, mtns of Maine and then spotty showery activity for most of New England. The second such sign is the rapid build-up of cold arctic air masses in northern, central and southern Canada towards Mid-month. Then once upon the 19th of OCT the GFS leads a charge of cold air into the Northeastern CONUS and Great Lakes region. Perhaps our first or second episode of heavy lake effect snows.

prayers go up for his soul and his family grieving process.

Today, I have been sifting through the data and the guidance as of the 00z runs 10/3 and they are showing me the signs towards winter are upon us. New England weather is rather volatile the further we get from the summer and we get deeper into the season of Fall and then winter. As the holidays approach we are reminded how lucky we have been to live life as long as we have, and to have people who care about us in this world. As the holidays approach we are reminded of this constantly. As winter approaches abruptly and the only way Nature knows how, we get warning signs that the weather machine is ready to change gears and this is what I am seeing on the guidance this morning. There is rather strong agreement that a clipper will develop a secondary low off the coast of Cape Cod and Nantucket (ACK) as we head into the weekend. This system will carry a cold air mass on the north side and then northwest side and bring a change of temperatures to the region from the backside winds. Before that happens, we will experience spotty rain, until you are north of Concord, NH where rain will become more steady and then changeover to snow as one heads into the mountains of northern NH/VT/ME and the mountains of this region in the weekend. Saturday will be rather raw and spot showers at times, and then Sunday will be quite beautiful and rather chilly compared to what the last few days have given us. Also, another sign of the change in seasons is the rather rapid build-up of cold deep arctic air masses into northern Canada and then into the central and southern Canadian Prairies. This will begin to dive into the northern third of the US, above 40N from MT to ME as we head into the mid-month period and then the end of the month and beyond. Rather active weather pattern will begin to impact the US as multiple troughs will swing through the northern tier, this is rather common in neutral ENSO patterns. I will have another update after the 12z EURO if something changes in the guidance.

Dendrite, I want to be taken seriously in the weather world and in my own life, and it starts with making changes where I might be most of the time each day.

Honestly the only way I am willing to give power away is in a hurricane that happens in early August, or a Blizzard in January or February that can produce over 24" of snow.

While last winter was a bad one if you love snow events on the coast, but the more favorable winters of the past that featured this fast flow regime did not show with monster singular nor'easters/blizzard events, the winter of 2013-2014 featured several significant snow events. However, the progressive nature is the major difference between 15-20" events and the monster 30-40" events that are featured in a less compressive flow regimes, the Boxing Day 2010, Nemo 2013, Juno 2015 all seem to represent the meridional/slow flow events. These winters if my recollection is correct happened in weak El Nino events. As John mentioned, the global warming phenomenon is leading to less impactful ENSO events, and more consistent continental pattern events and sectional teleconnection pattern enhancers like the AO/NAO/PNA combinations. The certain pattern each factor is in, will help determine the outcome of each potential storm and the period it occurs within. With the potential for a warmer NW Atlantic Ocean, north of the Gulf Stream, we could perhaps have an enhanced baroclinic zone further northwest than the suppression year of 2013-2014 and perhaps a more eastward progression of said zone from the 2018-2019 winter track. I find the science behind the individual storms the major influences as to why my love for the weather puzzle has never diminished in the last 15 years I have been following it religiously. Perhaps a bigger devotion to the science of storm impact predictions will lead to a level headed approach to each individual event window.

Great input as always John. Looking forward for a better outlook on life, a more subdued enthusiasm for winter storms and more realistic approach to snowfall forecasts. This subdued fast flow events will likely preclude major nor'easters and blizzards potential, but may add to the more moderate snow event threat level. Perhaps no major NESIS like storms of 4 or 5 levels, but more so 2-3 level events. I would favor a more easterly track, where suppression might become a threat overall. This would depend greatly upon the smaller scale patterns like the PNA/NAO/AO combinations that present themselves on a week to week or every two week basis. We will not know until every event presents themselves. But the lack of overwhelming forces in the tropical equatorial Pacific Ocean regions where the ENSO is predicted, tells me that neutral phase is the way to go at this moment in time. Therefore an average winter seems appropriate at this time and juncture.

Today's update is a short appeal in the overall envelope of winter solutions. Today's neutral ENSO conditions update supports an average to slightly above average snowfall for all of New England. Again we should have a much better handle towards the first several weeks of November on what the ENSO pattern should be like. Eastern and Western New England have equal opportunities for above average snowfall this winter, which is quite normal within strong neutral ENSO phases.

I think the overall large mean of storm tracks will favor an easterly progression. However, I have a hard time feeling confident in this prediction at this point in the early weeks of Fall. Honestly the heaviest snows of the season could favor areas of Northern New England as much as it favors eastern New England. Right now, the whole region is likely to experience normal to slightly above normal snowfall this winter, that is that snow falls between December 21st and March 21st will end up at normal or slightly to above average. Neutral ENSO conditions likely present this large level of unknowns.

Ray, are you favoring a neutral ENSO right now? Have your thoughts changed from earlier this summer?

Latest ENSO predictions by the CPC suggests at least a 55% chance for a neutral phase ENSO this winter into the Spring of 2020. Not really a big swing in equatorial Pacific Ocean SSTs anomalies. Snowfall could be above average in central New England, west of a PVD to BOS to AUG I-95 corridor points west. East of that corridor slightly above to above average snow is possible. That is my early thoughts. A neutral phased ENSO will lead to the central regions being favored for above average snowfall. If it was cold phase ENSO it would favor the western and Northern regions of the area, while the weak to moderate warm phase favors the coastal plain. At least that is my general knowledge. Someone like Will or Scott or Ray could let me know where I am wrong.

Right now there is a greater than 55 percent chance of neutral ENSO conditions this winter. This should favor above normal snowfall across most of central New England, with a tendency towards slightly above average snowfall for eastern New England and less towards normal across the northern and western parts of New England. Storm tracks should be favored more eastward then last winter, more so from 35N:75W to around 41N:69.5W as an average storm track location. Coastal plain of New England could see slightly above average to potentially above average snow. I would say the Outer Cape from CHH to P-town could see around 30-45" of snow, parts of the Cape from CHH west to HYA could see 40-55" and parts of the Cape from HYA westward over 60" of snow. So these numbers support slightly above to above average snowfall this winter.

Latest models suggest that the -NAO look tihs week into next week, begins to break down towards the first weekend of October, then the cold air builds into central and southern Canada before being unleashed into the northern third of the CONUS, north of 40N latitude. This would happen towards the last week of October, perhaps a cold Halloween period.

What is this winter expecting? Does anyone know when a triple-phase storm is expected?

Was the winter of 2014-2015 considered a warm neutral ENSO?

For severe weather, June 2008 Hail storm, July 23rd, 2019 Tornado EF-1, 110mph winds. Winter events: combo of Winter 2004-2005, and 2014-2015, single event of FEB 8-9th 2013, microburst 2005 DEC 9th NOREASTER. Hurricane Season 2004, the discovery of Wunderground.com Dr. Masters' blog.

Thanks Kevin.