USCAPEWEATHERAF

If I didn't check the satellite imagery for local skies, I would not have noticed the mesoscale low passing due east of CHH this hour.https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

I mean enough moisture to produce mist and light rain showers.

yeah, but the delta Ts are nearly what to expect, I am guessing the moisture is present given the temperatures are still in the 50s, but ocean is in the 60s.

https://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/upa/gen-raobplt.cgi?id=KCHH&pl=skewt&cu=la&pt=parcel&size=640x480&pg=web Sounding shows real dry air above 850mb, low-level humidity. Winds out of the NW. Chatham, MA sounding observations 12z

Local observations show that a front moved through yesterday evening into the early morning hours today. Winds went from SE to NW in a few seconds of time.

Typical Fall day here on Cape Cod. N-NW winds gusting to 20-30mph, with temps near steady at 56-58F, ocean effect precipitation is falling in mist form this afternoon under mostly cloudy skies with peaks of sunshine at times, just like a winter ocean cloud day, except its warmer. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined this radar image shows the precipitation on a N wind.

Today radar imagery shows Ocean Effect precipitation is developing and falling over the Outer Arm of Cape Cod this early afternoon. Radar shows flow is out of the north to northwest with rather cooler air mass moving over the low 60 degree ocean waters over the bay. Sprinkles and a few misty periods have developed. Radar image below shows this well.https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

I have had back issues and I just turned on the older side of 30 years old. Today I am a month plus into my 31st year, of course I am 30. Mid-millennial, born in 1989.

it is important to remain humble and try and improve on your downfalls and negative habits.

It could go either way right now, which is why neutral is the right way to predict right now. Most winters are harsh in New England, very few are tame. Just the location varies.

Its nowhere near official at this point. I am leaning this way with the Neutral ENSO predicted by the CPC

Yeah, that was my bad. Just excited to point that out.

Yeah you are right Jerry, my bad.

I mean I expect to have detractors whenever I say I am going to do something. Whom am I to say I don't deserve naysayers and doubters or even trolls/detractors whenever I say I am going to improve something. I mean the GOAT Tom Brady, always has doubters and trolls against him. Enemies who want to see Brady fail. Jesus Christ had people who wanted him dead for the sole purpose of being stupid, the detractors against God's son were stupid. I mean come on, there will always be people against you accomplishing something you want.

I mean compared to other viruses.

Oh, I was just posting something I found really interesting from the recent research I have been doing for winter nor'easters and how it impacts snow on Cape Cod, compared to most other non-snow events here. My prime location of focus is on Cape Cod, this is where my livelihood is focused and is impacted. My dad relies on my knowledge of the weather and as well as his customers.

Yeah that is a bad virus, kills within 10 days.

I am changing everything about my past ways, I am using a more scientific process and using better data to give me the best chance to succeed. With my previous reputation being what it was, I definitely wanted to change that mindset and that perception of my predictions. I am going to do a better job, and improve my outlook.

The July 23rd, 2019 tornado on Cape Cod that occurred in my town of Harwich, wasn't the only severe weather event this past summer, another hail event with stones about quarter sized occurred on June 22nd, 2019. That was cool.https://twitter.com/89Nich/status/1180108248122351616/photo/1

I have invested in some things to help increase my productivity when it comes to the winter season. Let's just say I am enhancing my experience this weekend with investments in better radar apps, and better websites and model subscriptions, plus adapters and other accessories for my computer. I am getting ready for a wonderful winter experience, let's just hope it is an above normal snow in my area this year.

Latest guidance and weather data suggests the rain that was impacting the region this morning is out of the way now, but cloud cover should stay in control for most of the morning into the early afternoon, before some clearing occurs as a strong Canadian High builds in from the northwest. Tomorrow looks dry and cool, with highs in the lower to middle 50s and lows near 45F. Sunday looks similar with perhaps a stronger and warmer return flow as the high shifts to the east with a rather nice rebound temp wise into the upper 50s and lower 60s and lows again in the mid to upper 40s. Frost is possible the next few days across the interior of New England and the mountains of the area. Monday will feature a warmer day than the weekend as a front approaches from western NY. Temperatures will return into the mid to upper 60s maybe some locations nearing the lower to mid 70s perhaps for the last time until March, unless a period of Indian Summer reaches that mark again this winter season. Perhaps the next time we see temperatures in the mid 70s will be late April early May 2020. Monday will feature warm temps, but the return of high altitude cirrus clouds and then thickening clouds towards sunset and temps lowering no more than 60F in the overnight hours before the cold front passes through late Tuesday morning. Temperatures will peak in the morning and then fall dramatically throughout the day into the lower 40s into Wednesday morning. Wednesday through Friday appear to be the middle 50s for highs and lower to middle 40s for lows until the weekend features potential for another cold front that will bring rain showers and colder air for the weekend into the early week. Stay Tuned! We will likely see subtle changes in the coming days to the ten day forecast. - JWN Productions!

One huge impact factor for determining snowstorms of major magnitudes and snow that falls on the Cape and Islands is the Banana High Pressure, it is a real factor, more real than I imagined. It is present in all the big nor'easters for Cape Cod. No matter the intensity of the storm or high, the structure of the high is most important.

We did get jackpot from the December 20th 2010 Snowstorm.

Well once we get into November, there should be a better consensus with the ENSO conditions. Yeah I wasn't really using my area per se for the years.

I believe the pattern switches to favor eastern half of New England, I just don't know where the way above average snows occur just yet. I am favoring central to eastern interior New England, but it could end up on the coast by the first two weeks of November when I issue my official forecast. Question becomes, winters like 2014-2015 and 2004-2005 or is it closer to 2013-2014 and 2010-2011?