USCAPEWEATHERAF

**Alert Level** (High), potential snowstorm impact in the next three days, high! Parts of the Denver region could see multiple feet of snow in the mountains and in the city region. Snowfall amounts of 10-30" is possible as the period ends 00z Wednesday, or Tuesday 8 pm EDT. Multiple model consensus shows a strong trough entering CA now and moving over the area by Monday afternoon into Tuesday. This will lead to leeward cyclogenesis to occur as the trough tilts more neutral. This will lead to an area of blossoming precipitation on the northwest side/cold side of the low pressure center. Impact will be expected in the high range. Heavy snow and strong winds could lead to blizzard conditions. Tuesday into Wednesday could see the heaviest snowfalls, over 12". This could lead to snow over Chicago, IL and become an intense storm that changes the pattern across the central and eastern CONUS. Updates to come in the next few days!SREFs show an all out huge snowstorm for Denver, CO

The Climate Prediction Center is more than 50/50 confident, precisely 55-60 % chance that neutral ENSO pattern will persist until Spring 2020. We are becoming more confident on an equal opportunity winter for above normal snowfall from PVD to BOS to Portland ME. I will have further updates first week into the first ten days of November.

Multiple model consensus suggests that the current evolving pattern for the Equatorial Pacific Ocean basin wide is favoring neutral-ENSO pattern. CPC suggests there is a more than 50/50 chance of a neutral ENSO persisting until Spring months of 2020. This should favor a strong winter favoring above normal snowfall for eastern to central New England with a below average temperature climate. Long range models suggest the pattern evolving this weekend will lead to a prolonged cold air mass. More will become present as we head into the first week of November.

Wow this country has seen numerous major tornado emergencies this year. Luckily and hopefully the deaths due to these monsters remains low.

why isn't this thread more active, there is a live tornado striking northern parts of Dallas, TX

Hello southern New Englanders, this evening update is about the latest guidance showing a potential pattern change storm erupting in the 5-10 day range. This storm signals the erupt change to a colder and maybe perhaps more stable pattern towards Halloween and the change into the month of November. Deep cold is on tap for after the next week. Stay Tuned! Winter is still around the corner.

These winds are cranking now, gusts probably up to 40mph recently. Huge burst of convection to the south, that is the secondary now primary low as low as 986mb

The surface low has moved east some, down to 986mb

Also lowest pressures found along the East Coast is around 995mb east of Dover, DE.

I believe the wind threat is going to be quite high between 9z and 15z Thursday morning, which is 5 am to 10 am across the Cape and Islands as the 925mb low level jet winds crank to over 105mph during this time as which a slight tornado risk window is open. Mesolow/mesocyclone threat increases in this window as well. However, unsure what the inversion heights will be and whether or not the marine layer inflow will inhibit the storm formation along the front.

Models in the long range, are beginning to show a winter like pattern beginning late OCT, sometime after the 27th. In the next two weeks of OCT, warm air is settling in after our mid-week miller B storm center offshore of MVY sometime WED night. Cold air will dump into the central Northern CONUS north of 40 north latitude.

Models long range are showing a huge dump of cold air over the central US and dumps into eastern US in two weeks to 16 days. Just say it is getting better.

The next four days present an unique challenge for weather forecasters. Models present a blocked upper-level pattern which ensues at the surface as well. A large ridge in Atlantic Canada will keep the coastal low pressure blocked at the surface and rather stalls or meanders off the coast near the New England storm benchmark location or 40N:70W. Winds will increase after 12z tomorrow into 12z Friday, they should peak between 55-70mph winds at the coastline between 12z Thursday and 12z Friday. Heavy rainfall over 5" should be a common number when this storm exits Saturday night/Sunday morning. Be prepared for a raw few days from I-95 corridor eastward will be the main region impacted from eastern CT to Eastern ME.

Where do we find the snowstorm records from 2000 to 2010 for New England?

Could be our last true day over 70F here in SE MA and Cape and Islands. At least until the Indian summer that happens at random times during the winter months. Anyone know the lowest pressure ever recorded for ACK?

The minimum temperatures here in Harwich this morning was around 36F, Chatham was at 37F and Hyannis was at 34F, all stations are in the upper-50s now, all three stations have winds out of the SE to S.

I hope it all goes well, have fun

I find the weeks after this Tuesday, OCT 8th, an active weather pattern is beginning to emerge on the models today. I just find the blocking an interesting feature.

As I stated in my rebuttal, it was just an example, and might have been a poor example considering today's world and how fragile we can be as a society to any different beliefs. I was just using God as an example, but you were right, I was not trying to be insensitive towards others. So for that mix-up, apologize and I will stick to weather discussions in this forum.

Today's lows were at 47F, with a dew point of 37F, so no frost today. Maybe next week or beyond we will see our first frost.

the 850mb temps are warm on the model. I'm sure northeast winds will cool the immediate coast.

EURO gets real warm in New England as a large cutoff mid-level low/tropical system parks itself just south of Long Island, NY in the 4-7 day time frame. Once that clears the region a huge trough enters the region with way below normal temperatures as 850mb temps drop below 0C.

that is my take until December 20th

Certainly the GFS is showing a +PNA with some sort of -AO/ potentially neutral to negative NAO presence. While there is no real presence at the 384 hour window of a Greenland ridge, there is a strong central North Atlantic Ridge northeast of Bermuda. The model wants to bring the tropical cyclone into Maine it would appear extrapolating outward. Never get sucked into the day 16 outlook by any model, but before then the EURO/GFS/and ensembles for both models shows the presence of a strong block with the potential for either a tropical cyclone or stacked low getting blocked southeast of Atlantic Canada and Nova Scotia and hundreds of miles off the East Coast of the US. This is an interesting setup, just not sold on it. Just some eye candy to hook us for the next set of model runs.

I only said in my statement that has everyone off kilter this afternoon, is that there was no other reason than pride for the reason that Jesus died. Just because they didn't believe what He was teaching, He died because of the betrayal of a friend of Jesus. He turned Him in because of the reward he was offered. Jesus was killed for a man's wanting of money. If you don't believe, I personally have nothing against you, you have that free will to choose to believe or not. I was simply pointing out, that the Savior for many people in this world was ridiculed constantly and killed because He taught something different. In no way, would I ever compare myself to God or His son, but I am saying, who would I be if I was to believe I didn't deserve people who didn't agree with my beliefs or my way towards success. The greatest people of history always had people who didn't believe in them or agree with their teachings or speeches. It is in my will to be humble and always believe I can do better each day I have on this planet. I am no more special than the next man to my left, or right. If people were offended, I am sorry, that was never an intention. I am sorry, I probably didn't explain what I meant in a more clear concise way.