USCAPEWEATHERAF

Temps out here on the Outer Cape dropped to 30F.

First snow flakes November 8th, 2019 - Harwich, MA. Ocean Effect driven.

I agree with that map.

Oh I know Greg, not really excited, just piqued my interest at this point.

I mean how do you not like what you see for next week. The 00z CMC had a bomb passing 25nm east of CHH in 6 days or so, the GFS is on point still, we just need a cleaner phase to occur and within 7 days of time, it is plenty to work with.

Hey Anthony (Snow88), man it feels good to finally get cold air worthy of supporting a coastal snow event. 00z GFS prints out almost .750" of QPF for Snow for CHH on the 12th and 13th of NOV. That coastal storm threat looks so close to being more. 00z CMC looks mighty good.

Strong anomalously cold air heading towards the CONUS, eastern 2/3rds, east of the Rockies, Very warm air across SW CONUS, including the states of CA, NV and NM. Fire dangers will continue for the areas impacted to this date. Very little mountain snow/rain for CA, OR and WA. MT to Great Lakes and Northeastern US will see above normal snowfall, perhaps quite intense snowfalls in the coming weeks November will bring snow and cold for most of the eastern CONUS Alaska should remain rather dry and mild, I wouldn't say warm Big storm threats for snow along the I-95 corridor and the immediate coastline of the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions will being next week, Monday-Wednesday Pattern now is a combination of a -NAO/-AO/+PNA regime Upper level pattern establishing itself now will favor prolonged sustained cold air and snow potentials due to anomalous ridging in Alaska and the PNA regions, and Greenland block developing in the North Atlantic Polar Regions Below are the maps of the pattern present and the snowfall and storm tracks anticipated for the next 48-60 days.

I am not really liking this threat, I am more intrigued as the arctic air is present for early to mid next week period. I need the arctic air situated before I like threats.

With my illustrations below to show you why we can expect a cold month of November, I will leave you this post.

While models decide their differences in the next day or so with the incoming precipitation threats, the one thing the pattern is adjusting to show is the appearance of arctic air masses invading the Northern 2/3rds of the CONUS. While large sustained +PNA is present, we will be getting some major league arctic air invading our region and the eastern 1/3rd of the country. While CA and the SW US bakes in record heat and fire weather, the MS Valley eastward will be experiencing the first cold winter snap of the fall season. While October snowfall wasn't the case this season, it appears we will not escape November without a few chances of snow. With such an arctic air mass in charge the coming weeks, we will see record highs and lows fall. Right now, get the winter gear in order, we will need it.

It is becoming increasingly clear, that the models are showing more confidence in an interior New England, mainly northwestern New England snowfall is going to happen later Thursday into Friday morning. The quick nature of the system, what the weather world calls a progressive storm, is something that won't be spectacular by any stretch of the imagination, but could have some moderate travel impacts where it does indeed snow and accumulate. The one thing that is blatantly obvious in the weather pattern developing now through November, is that there will be some amazingly cold air masses invading the region. These air masses are driven by the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere over North America that will be originating from the Polar regions, arctic in appearance. There are some very cold temperatures being printed out by the models, especially the GFS for Saturday this weekend and Tuesday of next week, indeed for CHH climate numbers, we could be as much as 10 to 20 F below normal both days. Low temperatures in those two days could be in the upper 20s with northeasterly winds aiding to the presence of ocean effect showers. Precipitation type unknown at this point and it is over 7 days away. Time will tell if CHH gets their first measurable snow then or not. For now, areas northwest of Worcester, MA will see some accumulating snowfall and I don't know how much just yet.

Here is the likely impacts from our potential winter storm on Friday morning.

Models are still undecided on the details as well as the synoptic scale pattern evolving the next 4-5 days across the Northeastern US. Residents should watch the evolving forecasts the next 36 hours across the area, but should not be alarmed, especially southeast of I-95 corridor.

hahaha

Today, this morning in New England, Monday is a rather slow, unwelcoming day. Most New England Patriots fans are waking to an early sun rise, with the knowledge that their New England Patriots took a big loss on the chin from the Baltimore Ravens before their week 10 bye. With the knowledge that there are weaknesses on the team's defense and offense, we pay attention to the weather scene the next two weeks before another game is played against the Philadelphia Eagles. I awake this Monday morning, knowing that a potential winter storm is lurking in the day four window, and according to the 00z EURO run this morning, there might be a legit snow to the coast by day 9. However, that is both beside the point. Today, Monday, November 4th, 2019 is only four days away from a modeled interior snowstorm for New England. Possibility becomes likely when models begin to agree on the storm in the 3 1/2 day window and confidence begins to increase substantially with the three major global models in relative agreement, the EURO, GFS and UKMET models have the same event in the same location, with similar results. We should wait another 36 hours before we are more confident in any model and have the short range ensembles and the short range HI resolution guidance in the range necessary for a high confidence forecast. For now, the November 8th modeled event is just that, a potential and nothing more or less. Residents southeast of the I95 corridor in RI and SE MA should not worry too much about accumulating snowfall, for the most part if it snows at all it should melt. The sun angle, while getting lower, is not there yet, and the ground is too warm as well as the ocean to the northeast while cooling substantially faster than last year at this time, we are still in the low to mid 50s off the South Shore of Boston to Nantucket. The only shot is a cold screaming north wind that carries the very cold arctic air mass over the warmer waters. Right now, nothing supports snow in the area, Cape Cod residents who love snow, we need to wait.

I am not impressed, snow in SE MA is rare this time of the year given that NE winds off an ocean in the lower 50s and upper 50s near ACK and CHH. I am never expecting snow this early here on the Coast.

In less than 24 hours, the Patriots are scheduled to play the Baltimore Ravens. The current weather forecast is quite pleasant for Baltimore area. Temperature expected to be in the mid-40s throughout the game, dew points in the lower 30s, with relative humidity in the dry zone of around 48 %. No precipitation is expected as there are no weather systems in the area for the game tomorrow. Frost could build throughout the game across grassy areas and colder surfaces. Winds should be a non-factor, as they will be variable and light nothing over 10 knots. I expect a rather lower scoring game, but Patriots come out covering, over 10 point win.

Snow from a potential coastal storm is looking like a distinct potential, nothing serious or imminent, just a potential. Given the long term nature of the snow event possibility and given how volatile models can be run to run, we need to wait to see some resemblance of consistency start to mount up in the coming days. We just aren't there yet. Cold is coming and perhaps arctic in origin. That is as much a given as anything right now. Have fun this weekend, enjoy in the climate weather, near average to slightly below average with dry conditions. We will know when something decent is coming in the 3 day range.

Latest GFS and model consensus showing signs that winter is ready to make a return. Today will begin the cold pouring into the eastern CONUS. BY the end of the seven day forecast, next Friday, a coastal system is showing up on the models. However, I am not sold on this potential at this time. There is a lot of disagreement on the potential location and track and intensity of said storm. We will know more by the end of the weekend into the Monday timeframe of next week.

Wow, temperatures here on the Lower part of Cape Cod, Chatham/Harwich area could see highs next week in the upper 30s.

My bad, I had a slight error of judgement, Dendrite is right, that was the old version of the GFS. I really haven't paid attention to the new version, that is my bad.

GFS has a cold bias? Since when? It has a strong bias to be progressive in non-progressive patterns.

Yeah of course!

I think this is a sign that storm track will be further southeast.

It appears the first half of November will favor a storm track north of the US/Canada border into Ontario and Quebec, Canada Provinces favoring a heavy snow track through these areas. This future snow depth would allow cold air masses to reach further east and south towards the end of November and into December. This will allow a further east and south extension of the cold fronts that move in from central Canada.