USCAPEWEATHERAF

Hey Kyle

Damn, I know I am not hyped for snow here on the Cape this early in the winter period, but I could always use a good storm to start the winter off on the right foot.

While the models still are going to oscillate back and forth north and south, I am getting rain, that is obvious, the ocean in early December is in the lower-50s.

It is colder Jerry, more snow for the Cape, It is colder

Models are showing a colder solution envelope in latest runs today, this could be temporary until the short range models get involved. My initial map is a warmer solution for the coastline. My thoughts are bound to change though, so this is the preliminary map issued.

18z EURO looked southeast and colder at the surface and shows more snow closer to the coastline. Again, not something I am leaning towards, my first snowfall map update is issued, I post it in my blog in a few minutes. I will issue the next snow map once the HIRES NAM gets involved.

Yes, the western part of Marquette county, MI could see snowfall amounts of over 24" and some numbers as high as 40" of snow in the next 72 hours will likely fall over the region. A major blizzard combined with an arctic air outbreak of northeasterly winds over Lake Superior could combine to produce 3 feet or more of snow. This is a major snow event for this time of year.

Marquette, MI could see upwards of near 40" of snow this week.

Snowstorm threat has become slightly enhanced the last few cycles. 06z GFS went from .5" of QPF as snow next weekend to 1.7" of QPF as snow for the 18z GFS run. The storm track is slowly becoming suppressed on the GFS, while the other models are spilt apart in their potential solutions. We are still under six days away, and just over five days away from the impacts of the storm. The first upper level vortexes are moving through by Wednesday with some mix of snow and rain showers. SNE will see mostly rain drops Wednesday, otherwise known as travel day. Thanksgiving Day looks cold and dry for the area.

most likely

they haven't though in my thirty years.

Wow, unfortunately, the biggest weather event on my birthday was it was a hot day, August 25th is not a great day for an extreme weather events.

I can say for sure the Blizzard of 2005 was by far the worst ever snow event for the Outer Cape.

GFS getting colder with the weekend storm, December 1st/2nd

Today's 12z model runs showed a good sign that tomorrow's potent storm system might spare the game weather tomorrow for the Patriots and Cowboys meeting. Given the 20z game time kickoff they could be spared the heaviest rains and a few showers might move through after the final horn. Game temps will be raw, and nasty outside, cloudy and maybe misting. 40s for temps.

Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots 4:25 p.m. EST time on Sunday, November 24th, 2019 could feature a rather nasty weather day for football. The game is going to be played at Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA. A major coastal storm looks to track just west of the I95 corridor Saturday evening into Sunday night and could bring rather cool, rainy and windy weather. Raw weather with temps in the mid-to-upper 40s.

For the next several weeks we will have an increased risk for coastal impacts from several coastal and ocean storms. Coastal flooding, high waves, rain, winds and beach erosion will be the main impacts, with chances for snow/ice and mixed precip further west in western New England. Stay tuned, rain for now, it is not a guarantee.

I have drawn a graphic illustrating the next few weeks of the weather pattern across North America. The northern hemisphere will favor a regime towards an evolving combination pattern of a -NAO/-AO/+PNA. The red in the picture represents the presence of ridging in the mid-upper levels and the blue represents the troughing areas of low pressure in the mid to upper levels. The ridging over western CONUS and eastern PAC ocean along with ridging across AK, to northwestern Canada northeastward to Greenland supports a -NAO blocking pattern regime to expand and stay put through the end of the month. How long this lasts no one knows for sure, but its presence while does not guarantee snow, it will bring a stormy and much colder air pattern across the eastern CONUS.

is that where we are having it again Ray?

Let's do Boston again, Clarke's, is that the place we all want to meet? I am hoping to make it this year, I am hoping Brian will be able to come.

Problem is, we have these type of storms about once every ten years and a storm of NEMO intensity 16-20" about once every 2.5 years, and with one or two winters with nearly less than 10" for the entire three to four months. Our last 12"+ storm I believe was 2017.

From HYA eastward snow becomes enhanced by northerly surface winds and brings some snow accumulations to the region from Hyannis to Provincetown tonight after 6 pm EST. Models show some accumulation, maybe about 1-2" of snow.

Today we will experience extreme weather at its finest. Severe flash freeze is setting up to enter the region as soon as later this morning, when temperatures sweep west to east with a 20-30F temperature change in the next 18-20 hours. It will happen suddenly with the change of the winds vector. AS the warm balmy 50+ degree southwesterly winds will change to a violent northwest cold dry bone chilling cold arctic air howling over 30mph. Rain will change to snow and temps will bottom out in the lower 20s. BRRRR!!!!!!!!!Current MESO OBS

This will be my first and official snowfall map for the early week snowstorm.

First snow flakes too yesterday