USCAPEWEATHERAF

Models are not matching up the QPF shield coming up from the southeast about to rock CHH well. They are hours late with this part of the low. I think the models have been poor today in their handling of the upper level support and real center of the low.

Pressure in Harwich is down to 993.5mb

Surface map of our power house storm this link shows the current location and intensity of our coastal storm, it has intensified about 4mb/hour in the last hour dropping from 987 to 983mb but is a lot further south than the models showed it intensifying. This storm is coming much closer to CHH than modeled, the 00z NAM keeps the heavy snow potential in line with the Cape.

The only storm I remember school being cancelled in high school was the Blizzard of 2005 when they cancelled school for the entire work week. The storm happened over the weekend and dropped over 24" widespread from eastern CT to the Cape, highways were not plowed enough to ensure safe travel so they cancelled the entire week. The winter of 2000-2001 or 2001-2002 we had a winter storm warning in place and school was cancelled, not sure it was determined the prior night or that morning, but we got nothing that storm. It went south. Again I graduated high school twelve years ago.

Massive Nor'easter Snow Map Final Issuance Here is my snow map for the nor'easter tomorrow morning, final map issuance. From my twitter page

18z RGEM is pretty consistent with a good event for Cape Cod, 6-8"

Winter Weather Advisory issued for Barnstable County. Up to 5" of snow expected. GFS is almost a foot of snow for Chatham.

Scott the 19z HRRR model run is coming in further south with the coastal low that becomes dominant. I have surface observations from the PSU weather center showing that the surface low is a lot further southeast and offshore and is progged at 985mb.

I agree, looking at that beast to beast interaction, I am really happy with what I see right now.

I don't think this is missing the Cape and Islands.

Storm deepens to 978mb around 12pm tomorrow

The image I will share is the storm and the dynamics associated with the storm potential for tomorrow and the evolution that could help determine a blizzard or a near miss for the Cape and Islands. AS the pressure drops in the low, the intensity and the pressure drop will help determine where the heaviest snows occur northwest of the low's track at the height of the pressure drops. If the storm blows up and deepens 15mb/6-12 hour period, just northwest of that low track will determine the heaviest snowfall rates. Convection will explode, cloud tops will cool rapidly as they expand upwards vertically. Tomorrow's nor'easter and potential impacts will be determined when the low blows up and starts the rapid bombogenesis phase.

Our catalyst is moving off the Delmarva Peninsula and is pivoting north, northeastward up the East Coast. We had a recent lightning strike observed just east of Atlantic City, NJ

Great analysis Wiz, what are you thinking for the Cape area? I think the Outer Cape from HYA to Provincetown will likely see 4", but I am confident we could see up to 10" in spots, especially on the outer arm.

I am liking that some observations from Plymouth State Weather Center is showing the surface low much further southeast at around 987mb.

I think one large factor we haven't taken into account is the potential intensifying evolution of the H5 low as it passes due east of ACK and CHH. An intensifying 525dm upper level H5 low, and a surface low that is as low as 975mb could deliver a death band of epic proportions. I think whoever is able to get inside this band, will see amounts off the charts.

I really like my location and the storm track and period of bombogenesis for us to see amazing snow totals.

What location? Chatham?

I agree, that tells me that there is plenty of energy present even with the baroclinic zone as far east as it is, we still have the western Atlantic moisture plume.

Scott N, I think the HRRR model is showing that occurring in the last few runs. It was near Nova Scotia at hour 12z, and now it is almost at the same latitude as Provincetown

I agree Scott, I am watching to see if the meso models show this.

Ok thanks

Can you post the snow map Dryslot

12z model cycle is bringing stronger and increased confidence of a high impact, short duration snow event for the Cape and Islands. Time window looks like between 6:00 am EST to 6:00 pm EST Tuesday, during this window, travel and visibilities could be lessened to 1/4 mile at times. Blizzard conditions as winds increase and heavy snow band enters the region. Snowfall rates over 1-2"/hour is possible. This could lead to 12"+ widespread amounts from the Canal to Provincetown, MA

I am confident in at least 3" of snow tomorrow across Cape Cod.