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Everything posted by USCAPEWEATHERAF
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Our temperature has dropped down to 34F now, and precipitation shut off when I went to bed last night around 1045pm. Precipitation is building back in with convective potential to the southwest of the Islands. Could see some heavier bands of snow once it reaches the region.
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Wow, the 00z HREF mean is much higher with snowfall totals in SE MA and the Cape and Islands, about 4-6" on the mean for 24 hours. 6 of 9 members have over 4". The 1z HRRR brought up the snowfall to around 3" for CHH. I am interested in what the 2z HRRR shows. I am going to catch some Z s now so I can wake up early in the morning. Here is to a good overperforming surprise. Front moved through around or just after 00z this evening.
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We are at 50F with a southwest wind, some rain mist
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I think there is a chance Cape Cod, especially from HYA to Provincetown, MA could see enhanced snowfall as the lift will combine with the moist and unstable air mass over the Cape and Islands could lead to some higher snow totals, 4-6" in a band or two. The water vapor shows the atmosphere is being amped up, instead of the modeled amped down.
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It is quite possible the 00z models are beginning to feel the strength of the arctic shortwave as it digs more SSE, then SE. The shortwave looks very good on satellite imagery, water vapor.
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"The Awakening Dawn" - A glimpse into the future!
USCAPEWEATHERAF posted a blog entry in Once a legend always a legend
On day in 2005, the weather was at the most volatile point all season, October, month of the great Hurricane Wilma 2005. I had a dream that would spark a journey I have been on for the last fourteen years. In this dream, I saw the catastrophic end to humanity. Whether or not it was a premonition or just simply a basic dream for a developing weather enthusiast in his adolescence, I don't know, but it sparked a creative monster within myself. Struggling with family problems that latter turned into internal emotional distress later down the road, which end up costing my USAF experience to cut short, the weather was an outlet, an intellectual and emotional and a mental release from the reality I was facing within my developing maturation process as well as the developing family dynamics with four children between 15 and 6. My family dynamics truly showed, that not one family ever escapes the torment that life brings on a daily basis. Life torments us on day to day regime. It is how and what we decide to do in the face of that chaos that determines our future. This novel series all came from a dream I had that one evening. The Awakening Dawn - novel one, - From Dawn Until Dusk - novel two, - The End of the Awakening - novel three, -- The friends of Jack and Abi, Marie Givens and Michael Reed who are also dating each other, go on a tremendous journey that impacts their families, their friendships with each other, and the couples inter workings. While their relationships are changing, natural disasters of epic proportions start to develop and impact humanity. The first novel is about three catastrophic plus level hurricanes that make landfall on the US Coastline, East Coast and Gulf Coasts. Hurricane Franklin, Gert and Humberto all reach catastrophic plus levels of 250mph or greater wind speeds sustained, and minimum central pressures of lower than 700mbs. These massive beasts kill over 400,000 each. The total loss of human life just in the US is around 1.7 million. Elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean territory, over 300,000 additional lives were lost in the Turks and Caicos, Cuba, and the Bahamas. in the second novel, Jack and Abi begin their second chapter with their newly born child, Jaye is born into the world of chaos around them. As newly appointed Joint Weather and Science Center now undergoing development of a new building in northern Florida, it is the combination of Climate Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, Storm Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center, National Environmental Prediction Center and other NOAA/NWS services combined with Geological US Survey and other government run organizations regarding science. With the temporary center in Norman, OK their new life has begun. Across the Pacific Ocean, a massive geological eruption of magnetic/magma and energy occurs in the middle of the Philippines archipelago. A combination or sequence of five massive and catastrophic 10.0 or greater magnitude earthquakes erupt from 50 miles east of Luzon, and the eruption line stretched to 50 miles west of Manila, Philippines. Sarah Irving is lost in this disaster as is the other 98% of the 94 million people population. The magnetic energetic pulse emanates towards Japan, erupting near Tokyo and into the city, Japan suffers about 96% of population loss. These pulses head all the way to the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, where the biggest earthquake erupts at 12.5 magnitude about 25 miles east of San Juan, Puerto Rico. When the energy pulse settles down, ending in the Mediterranean Sea, after several more massive and catastrophic quakes erupt the pulse dies in the mountains of Nepal near Mt Everest. The maritime earthquakes caused massive breaks in the earth's crust, allowing very hot gases and magma to flow into the ocean floor and the waters. Several of these quakes allowed the water near Puerto Rico and westward to the East Coast of the US and Gulf of Mexico to heat over 105 degrees Fahrenheit. Oceanic cities and cities along the coasts of countries that relied heavily on the fish industry lost billions of pounds of fish due to the abnormal heating of the ocean water they lived within. Dead fish began to litter the surface across the western Atlantic and western Pacific Oceans. We end the novel with a native of Cuba seeing a patch of dead fish rise to the surface as the red sun sets in the background. in the third novel, the end of the Awakening, society has one choice, live to the end. Catastrophic oceanic changes lead to changes in the atmospheric patterns across the western Hemisphere. As the oceanic Sea Surface Temperatures have rose to 100+ and fish species have died off, humanity looks to other resources to feed the millions. Then as a new monstrous threat is literally a few days away, the 53rd WRS Hurricane Hunters do routine missions and ready for the new hurricane season. On june 11th, 2030, their mission into a newly designated disturbance, designated Invest 90-L the L is the symbol that the invest is in the Atlantic Ocean basin. Flight USAF2411, led by new major of the USAF, the disturbance was nearing the East Coast of the US, but the Gulf Stream was heating all the way to 115F as far north as 42N: 70W locations allowing any disturbance to take advantage of the warmest recorded oceanic surface temperatures in this part of the Globe. The same situations were occurring in the Pacific Ocean. Throughout the hurricane season, a new bread of hurricanes developed due to the warmest temps of the ocean, called the Hyper Cane, dubbed so by Hurricane Specialist Dr. Kerry Emanuel who hypothesized that these monsters were likely back in the time of the dinosaurs, where the oceans were hit by asteroids allowing the ocean to heat to amazing temperatures. 12 of these storms developed, over 500 mph sustained winds, however, part of the theory was that given the intensity of these storms, they were likely extremely small, almost only 20 miles in diameter, but it is just a hypothesis. Then on November 30th, the official last date of the hurricane season, NASA or the remains of the organization detected a 100 miles wide asteroid within three days of an impact on Earth. The last three days, on earth, people were embracing each other and just waiting for the last stone thrown. The end occurred on December 2nd, 2030, the massive 100 miles wide rock spilt the earth in half entering the core, and the core exploded and the earth blew apart into a gazillion pieces. The END! -
So is there any agreement on when the gtg is happening and where?
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I am on the search for people who know how to descriptively write, write scenes that people can feel, touch, smell, hear and taste without actually being there, but rather reading it in a novel tremendously written. I have a ton of ideas for novels, I am a very creative minded thinker who create worlds on his own. My problem is, I don't have the knowledge background of English or writing enough to structurally write a good written novel. Especially where I would like to make real money from because this is my true purpose in life and I need help from people who want to put the time in to do this, people who are greatly inspired by wealth, competition and the feeling of greatness. I need motivated people. I am quite the competitor and I want it done quickly as possible. I need a lot of updates and I love to communicate more on a daily routine if possible. The money is only give to the both of us or more, if we get published. I am not too wealthy and I can't pay you until the publisher pays the both of us, so money up front is not available. However, if you believe in yourself and your abilities, we can go anywhere we want with this adventure. I have a lot of hope that someday, we will be up there with the greats. Oh and I have other story ideas not weather related too. thanks, James
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Happy Birthday Old Man Winter storm obs
USCAPEWEATHERAF replied to Ginx snewx's topic in New England
We got a wet inch of snow before melting started. -
Happy Birthday Old Man Winter storm obs
USCAPEWEATHERAF replied to Ginx snewx's topic in New England
We get snow on the Outer Cape through sun set, 4pm EST -
Happy Birthday Old Man Winter storm obs
USCAPEWEATHERAF replied to Ginx snewx's topic in New England
HRRR model has brought the main surface low further southwest, then earlier runs this morning and last night. -
Happy Birthday Old Man Winter storm obs
USCAPEWEATHERAF replied to Ginx snewx's topic in New England
Heavy band of snow heading towards BOS from the Northeast. -
Happy Birthday Old Man Winter storm obs
USCAPEWEATHERAF replied to Ginx snewx's topic in New England
Models show it snowing until sun set here in Harwich and Chatham -
Happy Birthday Old Man Winter storm obs
USCAPEWEATHERAF replied to Ginx snewx's topic in New England
Snow has begun to accumulate here in Harwich, as of ten to twenty minutes ago, visibility has dropped another quarter mile in Chatham, we are at 32F now in Harwich. We are going to get hammered in a short period of time. -
Happy Birthday Old Man Winter storm obs
USCAPEWEATHERAF replied to Ginx snewx's topic in New England
10z HRRR brings another foot of snow to Cape Cod, but that might go into melting as we near freezing now. It shows another 1.1" of QPF as snow. -
Happy Birthday Old Man Winter storm obs
USCAPEWEATHERAF replied to Ginx snewx's topic in New England
It began to changeover to snow around 6:52 am EST here in Harwich, MA, temp is at 33F, changing over at Chatham as well. -
Buoy SE of ACK at the benchmark, is showing a pressure of 989mb as of 3z. This would suggest the PSU weather center surface analysis is actually on point and the SPC is still off.
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Yeah down to 981mb, according to the observations that Plymouth State Weather center uses.
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Not necessarily, when it is stacked in all levels, surface to H5 and the centers are aligned in the column that is occlusion like with hurricanes.
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3z surface pressure pattern check out this link Jerry.
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Maybe for NYC area, not for Cape and Islands, models sling shot the surface low NW and the further south this happens the better chance for Cape and Islands to cash in big time.
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Occlusion means at every level, the surface center is hundreds of miles southeast of the region and down to 981mb. Bombing out 4mb/hour and 8mb/2 hours.
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JC it is not occluded.
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Latest observations compared to models suggests the latest guidance other than the 00z NAM are off with the surface low evolution and precipitation shield. This is coming west.