USCAPEWEATHERAF

I am already sick of the events turning from snow to mix to rain. Had enough rain now. Everyone else in SNE is over at least 20", I am stuck as usual way behind at 1.2" of total snow. I know climatologically speaking I am not in a great place for snow until at least DEC 20th, so I should be grateful for 1.2" now, but I need my hunger fix.

weak precipitation right now, it is almost like sleet, but our surface temp is 31F.

Man it is accumulating quickly and temp dropped to 31F, with 1.75 mile visibility at the Chatham Municipal Airport.

I am snowing now, light snow, temp of 32F, dew point of 27F, calm wind. Pressure is at 1020mb.

Dew point depressions still high, around 12F, temp of 30F and dp of 18F. The precip will start over the Cape between 9z and 12z tomorrow.

Temp of 31F, dew point of 18, Temp/DP depression of 13F. Some dry air overhead.

We have a powerful shortwave in the southern stream, it is headed right for the area, and I know I will turn to rain. I really wish this winter does not follow this pattern and instead we get a real coastal snowstorm track pattern going in early to mid January.

12z CMC is a monster offshore, ocean storm with no impacts on the East Coast other than some waves. We need a faster phase between the streams.

I personally have not liked the Tuesday storm from the start. I want that trailing polar/arctic shortwave energy to phase with the extra southern energy left behind the Tuesday system and allow for our own monster coastal storm to develop on Wednesday. It won't be a long duration event, there is no true blocking present even if transient. Problem is sometimes the models can't catch onto the intensity of the shortwave or speed of transit when it is less sampled.

OSU, that model has no idea what the hell it wants that energy to do next week. If we get a more amplified arctic jet, we will see some impacts from that potential coastal system. Southern energy is not pulled in or phased with the arctic shortwave and we get a near miss.

Simply, forecasting the weather is never perfect. In fact, the unpredictable nature of the weather is what fascinates those of us, who love the weather. The extremes, the puzzles that nature provides. What does allow a storm like Juno, NEMO, JONAS, or even Neptune form and impact us with such tremendous ferocity, I personally still put the Blizzard of 2005 ahead of JUNO, we received 35" of snow in my front yard from that storm. Now what I want to discuss with the viewers is simply the overall synoptic landscape of the weather patterns evolving next week. Right now the Saturday storm looks definite, and I would say we are at the 65% threshold that Cape Cod and SNE will receive a flooding rainstorm. The phase of cold air and the sub-tropical moisture connection is lacking and therefore not a cause for concern. The storm on Tuesday looks like at least a 55% probability for precipitation, question becomes, eventual track of the system. Now, there is a caveat next week that could change the outcome of the Tuesday storm, or become a storm on its own. A large piece of the Polar Vortex that moves south very slowly I might add, out of northern Canada and the Arctic Circle, which is why I know the arctic jet is present. The 12z NAM and GFS have slightly altering scenarios at 84 hours, and that is as far as the NAM goes, so any further is pointless. At 84 hours, the NAM is weaker and less amplified in the arctic jet over central/southern Canada. The GFS is actually more amplified, but the southern energy is too far ahead of the arctic shortwave to have much of a chance to phase. EURO is showing this energy as well, but the models are at odds at location and intensity of the shortwave and how it influences our phantom coastal around 100-120 hours out at this time. Still a lot of details to try and iron out which brings us to the biggest potential of the season to date around the first few days of Christmas week. Around the December 22-25th period, models have been hinting at a potential monster coastal nor'easter developing. The details and the impact that it will happen have yet to be determined. We have a lot of time left before that is even discussed more than at random at this time. So for the timeline I have written below, our certainty is this weekend, this late afternoon into Saturday, a major rainstorm, BUF could see a foot of snow. The further out in time, the more uncertain we are. Thanks for reading. 1.) Friday/Saturday December 13-14th, 2019 - rainstorm 2.) Monday evening/Tuesday morning December 16-17th, 2019 - mixed precipitation event, mainly rain for Cape Cod 3.) Wednesday potential coastal storm, not given yet, potential impacts snow and wind 4.) Following Monday into Wednesday December 23-25th, 2019 - Super Storm type nor'easter, potential for all impacts.

What that arctic shortwave energy that the models are starting to latch onto behind the Tuesday system. GFS has dug southeast the last two cycles.

It is still used

No I am not worried, I am staying home.

Kevin, it was rain for everywhere, the storm occluded all within the southern stream, with no phase or interaction with the northern stream, there was no cold air connection, which is what we need to keep the arctic high north of the area.

18z GFS looks like a monster rainstorm for Christmas week, no real phase in time with the northern stream and the high moves east.

The pieces that bring together the 12z GFS super bomb are on the CONUS around a week from today, the 19th of DEC. That is when the phantom southern stream energy makes its way into the RAOB fields of CA. The polar vortex lobe of energy is still in central Canada, so we don't know how strong that energy will be. Oh and the 18th system has a new wrinkle from the 18z GFS, the northern stream tries to dig in last minute.

The major timing in the models for the day 10-11 storm is when the PV is trying to split at hour 144, the ridging in the west and in the arctic tries to smash the PV low but it doesn't split and instead gets shoved into the Northeastern US. Just something to monitor the next 10 days. Oh and the EURO has no southern impulse of significance like John (TyphoonTip) said.

Southern New England and most of the I-95 corridor of the NE CONUS is in line for a 1-3 widespread snowfall, and a narrow band or two of 4+ inches.

On day in 2005, the weather was at the most volatile point all season, October, month of the great Hurricane Wilma 2005. I had a dream that would spark a journey I have been on for the last fourteen years. In this dream, I saw the catastrophic end to humanity. Whether or not it was a premonition or just simply a basic dream for a developing weather enthusiast in his adolescence, I don't know, but it sparked a creative monster within myself. Struggling with family problems that latter turned into internal emotional distress later down the road, which end up costing my USAF experience to cut short, the weather was an outlet, an intellectual and emotional and a mental release from the reality I was facing within my developing maturation process as well as the developing family dynamics with four children between 15 and 6. My family dynamics truly showed, that not one family ever escapes the torment that life brings on a daily basis. Life torments us on day to day regime. It is how and what we decide to do in the face of that chaos that determines our future. This novel series all came from a dream I had that one evening. The Awakening Dawn - novel one, - From Dawn Until Dusk - novel two, - The End of the Awakening - novel three, -- The friends of Jack and Abi, Marie Givens and Michael Reed who are also dating each other, go on a tremendous journey that impacts their families, their friendships with each other, and the couples inter workings. While their relationships are changing, natural disasters of epic proportions start to develop and impact humanity. The first novel is about three catastrophic plus level hurricanes that make landfall on the US Coastline, East Coast and Gulf Coasts. Hurricane Franklin, Gert and Humberto all reach catastrophic plus levels of 250mph or greater wind speeds sustained, and minimum central pressures of lower than 700mbs. These massive beasts kill over 400,000 each. The total loss of human life just in the US is around 1.7 million. Elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean territory, over 300,000 additional lives were lost in the Turks and Caicos, Cuba, and the Bahamas. in the second novel, Jack and Abi begin their second chapter with their newly born child, Jaye is born into the world of chaos around them. As newly appointed Joint Weather and Science Center now undergoing development of a new building in northern Florida, it is the combination of Climate Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, Storm Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center, National Environmental Prediction Center and other NOAA/NWS services combined with Geological US Survey and other government run organizations regarding science. With the temporary center in Norman, OK their new life has begun. Across the Pacific Ocean, a massive geological eruption of magnetic/magma and energy occurs in the middle of the Philippines archipelago. A combination or sequence of five massive and catastrophic 10.0 or greater magnitude earthquakes erupt from 50 miles east of Luzon, and the eruption line stretched to 50 miles west of Manila, Philippines. Sarah Irving is lost in this disaster as is the other 98% of the 94 million people population. The magnetic energetic pulse emanates towards Japan, erupting near Tokyo and into the city, Japan suffers about 96% of population loss. These pulses head all the way to the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, where the biggest earthquake erupts at 12.5 magnitude about 25 miles east of San Juan, Puerto Rico. When the energy pulse settles down, ending in the Mediterranean Sea, after several more massive and catastrophic quakes erupt the pulse dies in the mountains of Nepal near Mt Everest. The maritime earthquakes caused massive breaks in the earth's crust, allowing very hot gases and magma to flow into the ocean floor and the waters. Several of these quakes allowed the water near Puerto Rico and westward to the East Coast of the US and Gulf of Mexico to heat over 105 degrees Fahrenheit. Oceanic cities and cities along the coasts of countries that relied heavily on the fish industry lost billions of pounds of fish due to the abnormal heating of the ocean water they lived within. Dead fish began to litter the surface across the western Atlantic and western Pacific Oceans. We end the novel with a native of Cuba seeing a patch of dead fish rise to the surface as the red sun sets in the background. in the third novel, the end of the Awakening, society has one choice, live to the end. Catastrophic oceanic changes lead to changes in the atmospheric patterns across the western Hemisphere. As the oceanic Sea Surface Temperatures have rose to 100+ and fish species have died off, humanity looks to other resources to feed the millions. Then as a new monstrous threat is literally a few days away, the 53rd WRS Hurricane Hunters do routine missions and ready for the new hurricane season. On june 11th, 2030, their mission into a newly designated disturbance, designated Invest 90-L the L is the symbol that the invest is in the Atlantic Ocean basin. Flight USAF2411, led by new major of the USAF, the disturbance was nearing the East Coast of the US, but the Gulf Stream was heating all the way to 115F as far north as 42N: 70W locations allowing any disturbance to take advantage of the warmest recorded oceanic surface temperatures in this part of the Globe. The same situations were occurring in the Pacific Ocean. Throughout the hurricane season, a new bread of hurricanes developed due to the warmest temps of the ocean, called the Hyper Cane, dubbed so by Hurricane Specialist Dr. Kerry Emanuel who hypothesized that these monsters were likely back in the time of the dinosaurs, where the oceans were hit by asteroids allowing the ocean to heat to amazing temperatures. 12 of these storms developed, over 500 mph sustained winds, however, part of the theory was that given the intensity of these storms, they were likely extremely small, almost only 20 miles in diameter, but it is just a hypothesis. Then on November 30th, the official last date of the hurricane season, NASA or the remains of the organization detected a 100 miles wide asteroid within three days of an impact on Earth. The last three days, on earth, people were embracing each other and just waiting for the last stone thrown. The end occurred on December 2nd, 2030, the massive 100 miles wide rock spilt the earth in half entering the core, and the core exploded and the earth blew apart into a gazillion pieces. The END!

Massive Nor'easter Snow Map Final Issuance Here is my snow map for the nor'easter tomorrow morning, final map issuance. From my twitter page

The image I will share is the storm and the dynamics associated with the storm potential for tomorrow and the evolution that could help determine a blizzard or a near miss for the Cape and Islands. AS the pressure drops in the low, the intensity and the pressure drop will help determine where the heaviest snows occur northwest of the low's track at the height of the pressure drops. If the storm blows up and deepens 15mb/6-12 hour period, just northwest of that low track will determine the heaviest snowfall rates. Convection will explode, cloud tops will cool rapidly as they expand upwards vertically. Tomorrow's nor'easter and potential impacts will be determined when the low blows up and starts the rapid bombogenesis phase.

The latest cycle of the 12z model set has led to a high and very large uncertainty for forecasting SE MA and RI weather for Monday night into Tuesday afternoon. The cycle was spilt down the middle, one side shows a potential major impact of snow and wind for the area then, but the other set as the secondary low taking off to far east and southeast and has a very little impact on the area for snow. Right now, there is a less than 40% forecast confidence in any direction. This is very poor for this range. Update on the 18z model cycle.

Final Snow Map issued. Round 2 has a lot of evolution questions right now and is not smart to try and determine what happens there. long duration Nor'easter. Dangerous weather impacts likely ahead.

Tonight's update shows that a cold rain looks likely for most of the Cape and Islands for Sunday night into Monday night and Tuesday. I am sorry for those snow lovers on Cape Cod, this is not our storm. There are still plenty of questions on the second part of the nor'easter, it seems like it could bring accumulating snows to the area later Monday night into Tuesday if the air mass is cold enough.